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Just out of curiousity,,,
Old 01-09-2008, 05:25 PM   #1
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Just out of curiousity,,,

The SWR is supposed to be based upon the WORST 30 year period in the history of the market. Does anybody know when that was? I'm guessing it started sometime in the 60's. But I honestly don't have a clue, and wouldn't even be able to start to calculate it even if I did know where to find the rates of return for all those years.
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Old 01-09-2008, 06:30 PM   #2
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The great depression and the period of ~1964-1975 are the two primary failure points.

A deep drop and not much after that, and a long sideways period.
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:05 PM   #3
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Seems like my worst case failure in the majority of my FireCalc runs start in 1966.
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:14 PM   #4
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Guess the era of love and peace wasnt so hot for stocks
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:02 PM   #5
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It wasnt so hot for much of anything.
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:07 PM   #6
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It wasnt so hot for much of anything.
Heh. I'm guessing your opinion of that era was formed as a middle school student.
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:26 PM   #7
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1966. Fresh out of college - with a good en ga neering job - ego to match - full service Dean Witter broker - a legend in my own mind. 1968 - a few winners, penthouse apartment, new sports car, chasing dirty blonds, trying to learn golf and downhill sking. Will the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights and 73/74 Mr Market started the wake up calls.

This was even before - psst Wellesley.

heh heh heh - 4% came with webtv, Bernstein's Efficient Frontier and this(Dory36) forum via Firecalc. I had no idea how much fun I had - except in hindsight. Note - Wellesley started 1970.
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:29 PM   #8
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It wasnt so hot for much of anything.

It was OK as long as the bong was full and you could score some decent "windowpane" once in awhile .
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Old 01-09-2008, 10:15 PM   #9
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Heh. I'm guessing your opinion of that era was formed as a middle school student.
It was formed by 35,973 stories, most of them almost exactly alike, about how my dad bought stocks in the mid 60's for $xxx and finally gave up in the early 70's when they were down to $x and thats why he'd never own stocks again. And how they of course went right back up again the minute he sold and are worth 20x as much now. And how the bonds all paid lousy rates too. And...and...and...

So you depression babies werent the only ones who had so suffer from the investing diatribes
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Old 01-09-2008, 10:25 PM   #10
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I can't speak for other depression babies but I never had to listen to any diatribes about investing. The only stock my dad ever talked about was the live variety that he had to milk every morning...just before he walked to school barefoot, in the snow, uphill both ways.
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Old 01-09-2008, 10:26 PM   #11
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Bet you have strong fingers from clinging to the windowsills while you slept, of course being too poor to afford floors.
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Old 01-10-2008, 12:15 AM   #12
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It was formed by 35,973 stories, most of them almost exactly alike, about how my dad bought stocks in the mid 60's for $xxx and finally gave up in the early 70's when they were down to $x and thats why he'd never own stocks again. And how they of course went right back up again the minute he sold and are worth 20x as much now. And how the bonds all paid lousy rates too. And...and...and...
So you depression babies werent the only ones who had so suffer from the investing diatribes
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I can't speak for other depression babies but I never had to listen to any diatribes about investing. The only stock my dad ever talked about was the live variety that he had to milk every morning...just before he walked to school barefoot, in the snow, uphill both ways.
You two have just described my father-in-law and my father.

No nightmares for me tonight. Sure...
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Old 01-10-2008, 12:42 AM   #13
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Bet you have strong fingers from clinging to the windowsills while you slept, of course being too poor to afford floors.
Ha I never heard that one before.
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Old 01-10-2008, 08:22 AM   #14
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Old monty python bit.

There is no original creation. If monty python didnt do it, simpsons did it.
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Old 01-10-2008, 08:26 AM   #15
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Old monty python bit.
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Old 01-10-2008, 09:04 AM   #16
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Thats the one

"You were lucky to have a lake! There were 150 of us living in a shoebox in the middle of the street!

Sheeeer luxury!!"
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Old 01-10-2008, 09:57 AM   #17
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It was OK as long as the bong was full and you could score some decent "windowpane" once in awhile .
That caused a flashback brought back some memories...

Appropriately enough, I took a hit of "pyramid" before I saw Pink Floyd the first time... (Medical experiments: obligatory MP reference...)

My dad, born 1930, has never owned a stock. Raw land, he says...
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Old 01-10-2008, 10:12 AM   #18
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Hah. Six posts before the start of thread entropy, seventeen for nearly complete decomposition!
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Old 01-10-2008, 10:50 AM   #19
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Heh heh heh - da nail in the coffin:

Google up 'The Retire Early Home Page' and read Mr Greany's 4% withdrawal in hard times article.

DO NOT! I repeat do not use the search function on this forum to explore retirement in the 1999 - 2002 period or engage in forward prognostication.

Hopefully most of the sinful stuff has been purged!

A little change up to plug Greany - psssst - TIPs.



heh heh heh -
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