Keeping things in perspective with the market

[whitestick]

Ignore the site where this article is posted, but the article itself is a good one to put in perspective the noise floating around, by Nick Murray. An accomplished publisher and financial advisor to the advisors, so his words give a balance to the rhetoric of late.
February 2008 Electronic Newsletter

[W2R]

He has a point about journalists. In fact, often it seems as though responsible journalism is a thing of the past.

[Eagle43]

Great article. Pessimism sells. "Woe is me us, the sky is falling" is a media mantra, no matter what the subject, and especially when it comes to investments.

Thanks for the link and I have forwarded it to several "nervous" friends.

[FinanceDude]

Nick Murray is one of my heroes, and a great speaker...........

[brewer12345]

Heh, I love it:

"Think of it: this society is so rich that even its poorest members eat too much?"

I heard an interview with a market economist this week on Bloomberg radio and he said something that really struck me. Words to the effect that the debate over whether there will be a recession isparticularly pointless.

But, hey, I am being offered the opportunity to buy very high quality companies at valuations I will likely not see for another decade. The capital markets have lost their minds, and I am very happy to relieve the foolish of their quite attractively priced securities.

[barbarus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire He has a point about journalists. In fact, often it seems as though responsible journalism is a thing of the past.

All to true. Where is Bill Hearst now that we need'im.

[barbarus]

All TOO true, that is.
God, I'm getting even dumber than the culture around me

[al_bundy]

i still believe that there is a good chance we will see the SP500 hit 800 before this is all over and the way it's looking around 1225 by the middle of next month

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy i still believe that there is a good chance we will see the SP500 hit 800 before this is all over and the way it's looking around 1225 by the middle of next month

If you think theres a good chance then theres an inverse fund with your name on it

[al_bundy]

i'll be playing the sucker rallies on this one

the volume says it all. last 6 months it goes up on the falls and subsides on the rallies. this latest one was no different

until the volume subsides on the fall i'm staying out of the way

[barbarus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 But, hey, I am being offered the opportunity to buy very high quality companies at valuations I will likely not see for another decade. The capital markets have lost their minds, and I am very happy to relieve the foolish of their quite attractively priced securities.

Heck yes Brew. Equities are so attractive even the Fed wants to get in on the bargain!!!

Come to papa.

Depression risk might force U.S. to buy assets | U.S. | Reuters

[dessert]

I couldn't have done a better job writing that piece. That is the most descriptive explanation of TV journalism that I have ever seenagreed with!
Thanks for posting that one. I'll definitely send it to some of my negative thinking friends.
TV is not our friend and exists only to sell advertising and will create a crisis if it can't find one out there somewhere.
Another pet peeve of mine is where these "journalists" instead of reporting the news have themselves "become the news" and it's all about them and not the news.
Rant over......back to chillin out...

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire He has a point about journalists. In fact, often it seems as though responsible journalism is a thing of the past.

Journalists don’t write because they have something to say, they write because they have a deadline and otherwise will lose their job. The same is true for tv – just that they get paid more.

Because there is more competition for us as readers/viewers, they must work harder to 1) get our attention and 2) keep our attention.

Fear works. Actually, it’s called FUD ... Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. (just like politics). And like many fund managers, they won’t be fired for being wrong as long as everybody else is as well.

I’m beginning to think this current financial crisis is like last year’s hurricanes. It’s coming, it’s coming, gonna be a big one, everybody’s in grave danger, everybody take cover , run, RUN!...then a bit of a rain storm and then...change the subject on the news. (whew...what a close one)

Also reminds me of the Y2K thing.

It’s important not to let other people – especially media – think for you. Sift and filter, focus on facts, push aside opinions, ask questions, and judge for oneself.

Happy friday to all...Michael

[armor99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB It’s important not to let other people – especially media – think for you. Sift and filter, focus on facts, push aside opinions, ask questions, and judge for oneself.

A more true statement I have never heard.... well said! Always distrust those who do not understand the difference between fact and opinion. Shun those who will not, or cannot answer you questions. And never be afraid to think for youself. Take control of your own life, or very soon someone else will take control of it for you.....

[ladelfina]

I don't see how "pessimism sells" any more than "optimism sells".. Didn't all the TV business channels spring up with the tech stock runup and the advent of cheap money? Now they have to fill those 24 hours with crud... more or less the same crud as before but using more red and less green. I never could watch those shows.

As far as the OP's article is concerned, I find it pretty superficial even from a layman's perspective. It matters little what the "technical description" of a recession is in GDP terms, as I think the GDP is more fudged and flaky than the official CPI (the defects of which have been discussed in depth elsewhere on the forum). We don't HAVE a "gross domestic product". We have a "gross domestic SOMEthing".. and that includes billions and billions "worth" of phantom value and transactions, in addition to war spending.

The current war is just throwing money down a hole -- utterly unlike WWII, for example, which created jobs (never had such full employment as then, plus brought women into the workforce) training, factories and infrastructure for materials distribution and processing, that was then useful in the post-war boom, all of which development was in turn taxed at way higher rates than today (for the top tier more than 2x), providing gov. revenue., and financed voluntarily through war bonds rather than involuntarily via deflation. The current craziness compounds when today's inflated GD-something is then used to justify even more tax cuts and even more war spending, since each of these are couched in rosy terms of "only" being x% of GD"P". At least that's my take on it.

But U.S.A. = #1, so move along folks, nuthin' to see.

The fact that the writer has not seen "anything like this in 40 years".. is likely because things like this haven't happened in 40 years. When have the majority of mortgages over the previous three years had "subprime" characteristics? When did muni bond interest reset to 10% and 20%? When did completely unrelated companies like Bristol-Myers "poof" just see 20% (for now!) of cash on hand evaporate? Sorry.. that kind of thing is news in my book: alarming news.

[jazz4cash]

yes, ladelfina...'ism' sells

[brewer12345]

Sometimes I find news coverage very funny. A case in point: last night a company I own a chunk of reported particularly good earnings numbers, hiked their dividend 10%, and announced another stock buyback program that will retire about 15% of shares out in the next year or so. Not surprisingly, the stock was up a fair bit today. What was funny was the news coverage. Bloomberg usually has reasonably well-informed people putting out their news pieces on earnings, etc. But for this company, they only put out a piece that was 3 short paragraphs (even in the revision where they added to it). The writer obviously knew things were going well for the company, but didn't have a clue what a Bermuda catastrophe reinsurer is all about, so they basically couldn't think of anything to say about it.