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Kiplinger "Experts" record on 4 stocks
04-04-2012, 04:16 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,854
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Kiplinger "Experts" record on 4 stocks
I'm reading the Kiplinger Retirement Report, a pay-for service newsletter. I'm reading the December 2009 issue, and it's interesting to see what they said then, and how it's worked out. There is one article where they identified 4 great stocks to have during the "coming" recovery. I've shown them below.
UPS - their biggest winner. It was trading at $58 at that time, and is now at $80...wish I would have bought that one.
Kimberly-Clark - was at $65 then...now at $74...not exactly stellar given the broader market during that time
Pepsico - was at $62, now at $66...ouch.
Paychex - was at $31, now at ...ding ding ding.....$31.
Seems the "experts" didn't do so well on these four, compared to the S&P shown below.
S&P - was at 1,106, now at 1,400ish....about a 27% gain. I'll stick with indexing.
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04-04-2012, 04:24 PM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Easten Long Island
Posts: 414
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What about the divies?
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04-04-2012, 04:31 PM
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#3
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finance Dave
I'm reading the Kiplinger Retirement Report, a pay-for service newsletter. I'm reading the December 2009 issue, and it's interesting to see what they said then, and how it's worked out. There is one article where they identified 4 great stocks to have during the "coming" recovery. I've shown them below.
UPS - their biggest winner. It was trading at $58 at that time, and is now at $80...wish I would have bought that one.
Kimberly-Clark - was at $65 then...now at $74...not exactly stellar given the broader market during that time
Pepsico - was at $62, now at $66...ouch.
Paychex - was at $31, now at ...ding ding ding.....$31.
Seems the "experts" didn't do so well on these four, compared to the S&P shown below.
S&P - was at 1,106, now at 1,400ish....about a 27% gain. I'll stick with indexing.
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Great little post! It is always Interesting when you look at the old predictions. The only thing you can really control is the cost.
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04-04-2012, 04:34 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,266
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justplainbll
What about the divies?
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Would help in the comparison but still would not bridge the gap.
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04-04-2012, 04:49 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justplainbll
What about the divies?
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Yes, I ignored that....Bad Dave...Baaaad Dave lol
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
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04-04-2012, 06:39 PM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 83
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Kiplinger is one of the worst rags out there...a glorified fish wrapper.
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04-04-2012, 11:10 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerbil Wheel
Kiplinger is one of the worst rags out there...a glorified fish wrapper.
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Wow, that's a pretty harsh statement without giving any examples or support for your argument. I call foul.
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
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04-05-2012, 12:09 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Moscow
Posts: 1,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finance Dave
Wow, that's a pretty harsh statement without giving any examples or support for your argument. I call foul.
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I completely agree. What makes you think they're glorified?
__________________
You can't enlighten the unconscious.
But you can hit'em upside the head a few times to make sure they are really out...
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04-05-2012, 12:28 AM
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#9
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 10,125
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I like Smart Money since they go back and look at their recommendations and show which ones were good and which suggestions stunk.
__________________
Angels danced on the day that you were born.
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04-05-2012, 07:47 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
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I kinda call them all "money porn" but still read them. There's good stuff in Kiplinger and in Smart Money, but it buried under the same old advice they drag out every year.
I like it when they do those review articles on their hot picks for last year. It is pretty funny that they always have these "best of" mutual fund articles, then in the same issue tell people not to chase the hot funds!
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“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way
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04-05-2012, 09:13 AM
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#11
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 672
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finance Dave
UPS - their biggest winner. It was trading at $58 at that time, and is now at $80...wish I would have bought that one.
Kimberly-Clark - was at $65 then...now at $74...not exactly stellar given the broader market during that time
Pepsico - was at $62, now at $66...ouch.
Paychex - was at $31, now at ...ding ding ding.....$31.
Seems the "experts" didn't do so well on these four, compared to the S&P shown below.
S&P - was at 1,106, now at 1,400ish....about a 27% gain. I'll stick with indexing.
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I know you said you ignored dividends... so let's look at this a little more in detail...
UPS: $58 to $80 for the stock price, $4.53 in divs = (80-58+4.53)/58 = +45.74% return
Kimberly-Clark: $65 to $74, $6.18 in dividends = (74-65+6.18)/65 = 23.35% return
Pepsico = $62 to $66, $4.43 in dividends = (66-62+4.43)/62 = 13.59% return
Paychex = $31 to $31, $2.81 in dividends = (31-31+2.81)/31 = 9.06% return.
Assuming you invested equally in each stock you would have returned (45.74+23.35+13.59+9.06)/4 = 22.94% return without reinvesting the dividend.
S&P went from 1,106 to 1,400 = (1400-1106)/1106 = 26.58% return
The S&P still wins, but my guess it would be even closer if you reinvested dividends.
I am not advocating buying stocks over funds, but I think Kiplinger's did OK in this exercise.
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04-05-2012, 03:06 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,448
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiliPepr
S&P went from 1,106 to 1,400 = (1400-1106)/1106 = 26.58% return
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Now you are ignoring dividends in the S&P500!
The S&P that you see quoted in the media does not include dividends and no adjustments are made when they're distributed. So to get total return you need to look at something like VFIAX and get historical prices, adjusted for dividends, from yahoo finance.
12/4/09 - 97.66
3/30/12 - 129.79
For a total return of +32.9% (plus more if you reinvested divs). For the same period, the S&P went from 1105.98 to 1408.47, or +27.4% (which is the price return excluding divs).
But the bigger picture here is that these are non-risk adjusted comparisons (maybe Kip just picked a bunch of high-beta stocks and got lucky) and there aren't nearly enough data points to support any real conclusions about Kip's stock picking ability...
Honestly, if you knew how to pick winning stocks, would you go work as a mass media magazine writer for $50k/year and give away your secrets?
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04-06-2012, 10:18 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiliPepr
I know you said you ignored dividends... so let's look at this a little more in detail...
UPS: $58 to $80 for the stock price, $4.53 in divs = (80-58+4.53)/58 = +45.74% return
Kimberly-Clark: $65 to $74, $6.18 in dividends = (74-65+6.18)/65 = 23.35% return
Pepsico = $62 to $66, $4.43 in dividends = (66-62+4.43)/62 = 13.59% return
Paychex = $31 to $31, $2.81 in dividends = (31-31+2.81)/31 = 9.06% return.
Assuming you invested equally in each stock you would have returned (45.74+23.35+13.59+9.06)/4 = 22.94% return without reinvesting the dividend.
S&P went from 1,106 to 1,400 = (1400-1106)/1106 = 26.58% return
The S&P still wins, but my guess it would be even closer if you reinvested dividends.
I am not advocating buying stocks over funds, but I think Kiplinger's did OK in this exercise.
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Thanks for digging up the additional info and doing the math!
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
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04-06-2012, 10:20 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
Honestly, if you knew how to pick winning stocks, would you go work as a mass media magazine writer for $50k/year and give away your secrets?
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Exactly. That's what I tell all my friends about these "opportunities" advertised on TV all the time....if they are so good at it, why do they need to sell books and get money from you while giving away their secrets.
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
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