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Old 08-07-2018, 11:16 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Teacher Terry View Post
With bitcoin we invested what we were prepared to lose to see how it worked out and got lucky and made money. I don’t think anyone is arguing that it should be your main investment strategy or plan.

See below... I do not think anybody has suggested it be a main strategy or plan... but I do not think it is even an investment...



If you want to throw play money at it and hope for the best, that is fine.. it is speculation, or hope, or whatever word you might want to use but it is not an investment strategy.... also, if you are not putting in 5% of your money then even you are not sold on it either... less than 1% of your money will do nothing for your total return...


I would throw art and classic cars into that also... there are a lot of rich people who have made a lot of money speculating in these items, but IMO it is still a gamble... and I would rather be in these than bitcoin...


The run up and sell down has been very quick... from Nov to Dec going up and since then going down... it seems to be settling down a bit, but I think it will continue to fall...








Quote:
Originally Posted by flintnational View Post
I think Ben Graham would say bitcoin is speculative and not an investment. Here is his explanation of the difference between the two.

“An investment operation is one which, on thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

Cryptocurrencies, unlike most stocks and bonds, do not have a "return". The purchaser is speculating the price will be higher in the future. Graham goes on to propose situations where "intelligent speculation" might be warranted.

"Intelligent speculation presupposes at least that the mathematical possibilities are not against the speculation, basing the measurement of these odds on experience and the careful weighing of relevant facts."

IMHO, cryptocurrencies don't meet the definition of an investment or an intelligent speculation. I would put them clearly in the gambling category.
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:36 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flintnational View Post
"Intelligent speculation presupposes at least that the mathematical possibilities are not against the speculation, basing the measurement of these odds on experience and the careful weighing of relevant facts."

IMHO, cryptocurrencies don't meet the definition of an investment or an intelligent speculation. I would put them clearly in the gambling category.
Your assessment fails to take into account that Bitcoin is already being used as currency, and not just being traded between gamblers. This site claims to list some of the better-recognized companies that accept Bitcoin as a currency:

Who Accepts Bitcoins As Payment? List of Companies, Stores, Shops
https://99bitcoins.com/who-accepts-b...take-bitcoins/

Fidelity also disagrees with your assessment:

How Big are Fidelity's Bitcoin Ambitions?
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how...ons-1528319120

Under CEO Abigail Johnson’s leadership, Fidelity was one of the first institutions to give the nascent cryptocurrency asset class a serious look.
“I’m a believer,” she said at a cryptocurrency industry conference last May. “I’m one of the few standing before you today from a large financial services company that has not given up on digital currencies.”
Full story:
https://www.ccn.com/breaking-fidelit...ency-exchange/
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:51 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cessna152 View Post
Your assessment fails to take into account that Bitcoin is already being used as currency, and not just being traded between gamblers. This site claims to list some of the better-recognized companies that accept Bitcoin as a currency:

Who Accepts Bitcoins As Payment? List of Companies, Stores, Shops
https://99bitcoins.com/who-accepts-b...take-bitcoins/

Fidelity also disagrees with your assessment:

How Big are Fidelity's Bitcoin Ambitions?
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how...ons-1528319120

Under CEO Abigail Johnson’s leadership, Fidelity was one of the first institutions to give the nascent cryptocurrency asset class a serious look.
“I’m a believer,” she said at a cryptocurrency industry conference last May. “I’m one of the few standing before you today from a large financial services company that has not given up on digital currencies.”
Full story:
https://www.ccn.com/breaking-fidelit...ency-exchange/
1) Currencies don't meet Graham's definition of an investment either.
2) The Johnsons are in the business of making money providing services their customers want. Of course she believes in bitcoin (at a percent to Fidelity).
3) A gamble does not mean you can't make money. It just means bitcoin does not fit any reasonable definition of an investment anymore than going into a casino is an investment.
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Old 08-07-2018, 02:45 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
But you just made the point that bitcoin is NOT an investment... you risked a whole $100 on it... I doubt that would move the needle any vs your whole assets...


So let's compare... how much did you invest in precious metals, land, food and ammo... you can use pcts if you want...


BTW, I do not laugh at metals or land... those are strong known investments that some just choose not to buy... I am not into long term food options since at some time you will either have to eat it or throw it away... and I do not think it tastes good... but you can get some use out of it... with crypto there is no real utility to it...
I have about 1.5% of the overall net worth in precious metals. Bitcoin is simply enough to keep me interested, about $4K worth at current prices. But I am considering buying more as it successfully tested a double bottom around the $6K/coin level.

Regarding the food, I've taken a somewhat different approach on most of it:
a) I have a bunch of freeze dried meals, the type you use for overnight hikes. Mostly Mountain House brand. Since I hike, I can slowly rotate through the stock.
b) I have a bunch of basics: dried beans (Northern, Pinto, etc), pasta's, sugar, pop corn, etc. Some of this I acquired at the LDS facility, other from places like Costco. I took the 50# bags and made smaller amounts in Mylar sealed w/oxygen absorbents, which I then stored in bins and also in Gamma seal buckets. So, this isn't just a bunch of crappy high salt meals.
c) I do have some of the more traditional stuff which I will eventually either eat or more likely toss in another 10-20 years.

Basic food ingredients are re-markedly cheap in bulk. The biggest expense is animal proteins, of which I don't eat a lot of.
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Old 08-07-2018, 03:11 PM   #45
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The other thing is my son had a plan to mine it, was very knowledgeable and we mined 4 years ago when profitable. It also was a lot of work for him, knowing which coins to mine which was constantly changing, which coins to cash out, etc. Plus we were all aware we could loss the small amount we invested in it. Definitely not a good long term plan.
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Old 08-07-2018, 05:16 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
I have about 1.5% of the overall net worth in precious metals. Bitcoin is simply enough to keep me interested, about $4K worth at current prices. But I am considering buying more as it successfully tested a double bottom around the $6K/coin level.

Regarding the food, I've taken a somewhat different approach on most of it:
a) I have a bunch of freeze dried meals, the type you use for overnight hikes. Mostly Mountain House brand. Since I hike, I can slowly rotate through the stock.
b) I have a bunch of basics: dried beans (Northern, Pinto, etc), pasta's, sugar, pop corn, etc. Some of this I acquired at the LDS facility, other from places like Costco. I took the 50# bags and made smaller amounts in Mylar sealed w/oxygen absorbents, which I then stored in bins and also in Gamma seal buckets. So, this isn't just a bunch of crappy high salt meals.
c) I do have some of the more traditional stuff which I will eventually either eat or more likely toss in another 10-20 years.

Basic food ingredients are re-markedly cheap in bulk. The biggest expense is animal proteins, of which I don't eat a lot of.

Thanks for the info... yes, 1.5% is a decent amount for metals even though some say to hold more... but it is not a fad for you... plus you said you have land, also not a fad...


OK, I can see that with the food... we do rotate through food stuff... my longer term storage is protein... I buy it cheap, seal it and freeze it... even though they say 1 year, I have had steak that was over 2 years old that was great tasting (I buy prime)... we usually buy big bags of some other stuff, but DW has slowed down a bit on that... I think she does have the Mountain House stuff as she has gone hiking for a few days before, but has not done that for a few years now...
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Old 08-08-2018, 11:34 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Cessna152 View Post
Your assessment fails to take into account that Bitcoin is already being used as currency, and not just being traded between gamblers. ...
And why would you think that people currently accepting bitcoin are not gamblers? Today it is down 7%, so unless they moved fast to ditch the bitcoin they received yesterday, their profits on yesterday's transactions are probably gone. And if they instantaneously received and then ditched it, that makes it pretty clear that they actually do not believe in the currency at all.

The problem is this: An important use of a currency is as a store of value. I can accept a properly managed currency today, put it in my wallet, and be confident that tomorrow it will be worth the same as when I accepted it. Currencies can be mismanaged, of course, with Maduro and Mugabe as recent poster children. But a currency that has no management at all and no intrinsic value certainly should be at least suspected as not being a stable store of value and probably should be avoided by all but the gamblers.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:28 AM   #48
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Lots of talk about pros/cons of Bitcoin when I think the better argument is the vast potential of blockchain technology...
I've invested nothing in either yet.
However as my knowledge of blockchain technology grows...I'm getting more and more comfortable to invest about 25K into assets that are exploiting it's seemingly endless uses.
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Old 08-12-2018, 06:59 AM   #49
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Investing in blockchain technology is like investing in HTML. It's a protocol, and in contrast to HTML not even standardized.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:39 PM   #50
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Not very important in the scheme of things, but,

https://www.ccn.com/43-billion-wiped...rice-rebounds/

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