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Old 10-12-2008, 04:24 PM   #21
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L is like U without an uptick.
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Old 10-12-2008, 04:28 PM   #22
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Well, for the sake of this question, lets assume we hit bottom last week. If that's the case then I need my portfolio to go up 50% to break even. I believe that the market(overall) is very undervalued and therefore will go up rather quickly. I think it should take less than 4 years to go up 50%.
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Old 10-12-2008, 04:38 PM   #23
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"The US Recession: V or U or W or L-Shaped?"

I'm hoping for a /-shaped recession...
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Old 10-12-2008, 04:52 PM   #24
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Orchidflower, our situation is so unlike the 1929 crash, at least so far, that I don't think you can look at it for much information about the future. The DJIA bottomed out in 1932 having dropped 89% from it's 1929 high. wikipedia We'd have to get to a DJIA of around 1600 to compare to that.

After the 1987 crash of 31%, the DJIA recovered in two years. wikipedia

The Case for Stocks as a Long-Term Investment
is an interesting article from Charles Schwab that compares the current situation to the great depression and talks about stock recovery after the 10 recessions since WWII.

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Old 10-12-2008, 05:44 PM   #25
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L is like U without an uptick
That is, we'll be in a recession forever.
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Old 10-12-2008, 05:52 PM   #26
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That is, we'll be in a recession forever.
Nah - maybe 16 yrs like 66-82.

Pssst - Wellesley SEC yield 4.93% Alas my Target is 3.4% not near as rich.

heh heh heh - BUT Saint's beat Oakland. .
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Old 10-12-2008, 05:59 PM   #27
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The US economy may have peaked and the good times are behind us. There are no more bubbles to fuel massive growth and the government can only do so much to bail the economy out short of becoming a fascist economy. You got to love the free market system.
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Old 10-12-2008, 06:04 PM   #28
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The US economy may have peaked and the good times are behind us. There are no more bubbles to fuel massive growth and the government can only do so much to bail the economy out short of becoming a fascist economy. You got to love the free market system.
What an incredibly simplistic and negative POV! How do you know what might happen technologically to fuel growth going forward? Cold fusion, nanotechnology, beam me up Scotty brave new worlds. It seems to me to be the height of hubris to think that what has been is all there ever will be.

And anyway, the gov't is already fascist. It's fear of the people is keeping it's fascist tendencies under control.
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Old 10-12-2008, 06:05 PM   #29
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Anyway, is it going to take another 25 years to recoup all the losses many of us are taking right now, too? I am assuming so, but would love to hear what the finance professionals here think.
How about 5 days? I know I know......not gonna happen.
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Old 10-12-2008, 06:07 PM   #30
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How about 5 days? I know I know......not gonna happen.
Say it took 5 days to get down 40%. Logically, since we have to now go up 80% to get back to where we were, it's got to take 10-11 days. So tighten your belt.
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Old 10-12-2008, 06:50 PM   #31
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In 10 years WB will be 88 years old. He doesn't have to plan for 40 years of ER. He has a huge NW even now and cannot possibly run out of money during his lifetime. How does this affect his risk tolerance?
Warren Buffet's age and how much money he has impacts his personal risk tolerance only. That really isn't the point, his professional risk tolerance is skewed to satisfying his many stock holders.

He's done well for many. But he isn't always right.

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Old 10-12-2008, 06:52 PM   #32
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It's not a prediction, but historically, look what happens after huge credit bubbles, and stocks burst...

This is a 100 year DOW chart. Green is the bull markets, red is the bear markets.

I think it could be a long time of choppy markets.

Wouldn't be suprised if it takes 16-20 years from the 2000 peak.


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Old 10-12-2008, 07:07 PM   #33
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US futures are up and the couple of Asian markets already trading are up. 8:07 EST Oct 12.
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Old 10-12-2008, 07:20 PM   #34
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US futures are up and the couple of Asian markets already trading are up. 8:07 EST Oct 12.
Well there you go. I'm sticking with 5 days.
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Old 10-12-2008, 07:25 PM   #35
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What an incredibly simplistic and negative POV! How do you know what might happen technologically to fuel growth going forward? Cold fusion, nanotechnology, beam me up Scotty brave new worlds. It seems to me to be the height of hubris to think that what has been is all there ever will be.

And anyway, the gov't is already fascist. It's fear of the people is keeping it's fascist tendencies under control.
Or I might be right. The future is either going to be better or worse.
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Old 10-12-2008, 07:29 PM   #36
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You got to love the free market system.
Yeah, you tell 'em! This system sucks! We need to change to that other, better system! That would be . . . uhmm . . . never mind.
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Old 10-12-2008, 09:11 PM   #37
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Nah, it isn't fascist, it's socialist...haven't you seen the huge nationalization of assets going on
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:28 PM   #38
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Yeah, you tell 'em! This system sucks! We need to change to that other, better system! That would be . . . uhmm . . . never mind.
How about to a real free market system? One where failure isn't rewarded with government bailouts. Or we could have the government give us the money directly instead of pumping it through the stock market first.
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:52 PM   #39
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Nah, it isn't fascist, it's socialist...haven't you seen the huge nationalization of assets going on
I don't think the gummint plans to keep these assets, or plans to run these companies. Heck, like good capitalists, they might even turn a profit...
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Old 10-13-2008, 04:02 PM   #40
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How about to a real free market system? One where failure isn't rewarded with government bailouts. Or we could have the government give us the money directly instead of pumping it through the stock market first.
Sure, you go first. Lack of oversight allowed this situation to develop. What would you recommend instead of bailing out? How would you get banks to lend money? What would you do to restructure mortgages?

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