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Let the good times roll!!
10-17-2008, 11:02 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,288
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Let the good times roll!!
Nobody knows for sure where the market is going.....having said that...
All indications are that we are at the bottom.
1) We are down about 40% which is normally where the worst bears end
2) The market normally bottoms out right around mid point thru a recession which appears to be where we are.
3) We are 1 full year into this bear which is longer than avg
4) Buffet is buying
Ect.....
Historically, the market returns 14% per year for the 10 years following a bear market.
Let the good times roll !!!
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10-17-2008, 11:35 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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I'll be buying on a big down day next week.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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10-17-2008, 12:13 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
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It does look like the free-fall has stopped, but it is still a bit undecided about the future with these big swings.
While this does seem like it could be a bottom from the credit crunch, I'm not sure it represents a recession-linked bottom yet. I think that is just starting. It might just extend this bottom, since we're at a good recession bear level already. It is hard to believe it would get much lower, but this has not been a coldly rational market so far.
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10-17-2008, 12:19 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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10-17-2008, 12:20 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
I'll be buying on a big down day next week.
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Let me know what day that is so I won't turn on the news.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-17-2008, 12:33 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
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Theres always some event that causes panic. This time its a credit crunch. Last time it was something else and next time it will be something else.
The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one. Whether we hit bottom already or we hit it next month, the next decade should give us oversized returns which is cause for celebration. If you survived up to this point, you should thrive in the coming years.
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10-17-2008, 12:52 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utrecht
The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one.
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Seems sensible. A ten year period of 10% per year returns is about equal to a ten year period consisting of the first year with a -30% return and the subsequent 9 years of 15% per year returns.
Good food for thought for those twenty- and thirty-somethings with a decade left before FIRE who are lamenting the losses on their portfolios.
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10-17-2008, 12:55 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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10-17-2008, 04:11 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic.
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Bring it on!
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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10-17-2008, 05:11 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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More cash than ever here. Have not rebalanced yet, and still licking my chops...
Keep these comments coming please...
I need encouragement to buy looooow...
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10-17-2008, 05:19 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utrecht
Theres always some event that causes panic. This time its a credit crunch. Last time it was something else and next time it will be something else.
The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one. Whether we hit bottom already or we hit it next month, the next decade should give us oversized returns which is cause for celebration. If you survived up to this point, you should thrive in the coming years.
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thank you. did not mean to violate the spirit of the thread. i just wanted to assure myself that this isn't a recession/ Ambush predator - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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10-17-2008, 05:21 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
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A "credit crunch" is one of many possible ways an expansion eventually meets its demise. We've experienced it before in the early 90s with the S&L collapse and, more ominously, in the 1930's. It has the potential to be an especially nasty kind of recession for advanced economies because it damages the financial system. Without the financial system, nothing in the economy works the way it should.
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10-17-2008, 07:03 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Hey, I actually made money today even though the DOW dropped 1.4%. Nice way to end the week.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-17-2008, 07:08 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Try the Bud American Ale. That will cheer you up some more.
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10-17-2008, 07:42 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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I just checked, and every single fund I'm invested in lost money today, yet again. I am glad that somebody made some money today!
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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10-17-2008, 07:45 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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one of my technical analysis newsletters is predicting another 5% downside past last friday's lows. next week or in the next two weeks, then some consolidation and then a rally.
the other one says it's possibility but as of last night didn't make a recommendation
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10-18-2008, 01:28 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
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FWIW, the following is from Business Week, 10/20/08, page 32.
"... the crisis now weighting on the market - an epic deleveraging wave, a broken financial system, and an historic housing bust - is far more complex and fast-moving than either the dotcom collapse or the oil shock recession of the early 1970s. So previous bear markets may not be of much guidance this time around."
Ugh. Regarding my earlier post about buying low, perhaps I should be prepared to buy low and see them staying low for a while.
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10-18-2008, 09:10 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utrecht
Nobody knows for sure where the market is going.....having said that...
All indications are that we are at the bottom.
1) We are down about 40% which is normally where the worst bears end
2) The market normally bottoms out right around mid point thru a recession which appears to be where we are.
3) We are 1 full year into this bear which is longer than avg
4) Buffet is buying
Ect.....
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5) We are about to change presidential administration & party.
(Always creates an upturn according to my aged MIL)
__________________
Retired 2009!
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10-18-2008, 09:37 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
This is the time to buy stocks.
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.. if you still have cash available.
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May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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10-18-2008, 09:47 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
.. if you still have cash available.
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Food for thought. I have cash, and my AA has drifter to 40:60 instead of its intended 45:55 (stocks:fixed).
It was 38:62 on the 10th of this month, but then I bought some on the 10th and 14th.
It's hard to predict the bottom, and I really can't even try. Somewhat low for the coming decade is good enough.
Hmmm... it does seem like a little rebalancing might still be in order. Kind of scary, though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
perhaps I should be prepared to buy low and see them staying low for a while.
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Absolutely. I am not going to buy any more unless I am sure that I am OK about this possibility and the possibility that they could drop even lower, for example to half what they are presently.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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