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Lets check the facts with theory
Old 10-10-2008, 09:30 AM   #1
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Lets check the facts with theory

I thought it might be interesting to check facts with theory.

We have read all the books, studied the experts. Studied market history. For some of us this may be the first big bear!

What do you think of the theory?

Sound off.
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Old 10-10-2008, 09:43 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadian Grunt View Post
I thought it might be interesting to check facts with theory.

We have read all the books, studied the experts. Studied market history. For some of us this may be the first big bear!

What do you think of the theory?

Sound off.
Screw theory - stick with the Norwegian widow!

Pssst - Wellesley! Go team get those dividends, ok ok maybe some balanced index with at least a 3% yield floor you can live on.

That way it will keep the finance kids in school and not be out ratting the streets at night.



heh heh heh - this is a serious thread right? Do I mention I learned last family reunion to eat shrimp and grits in Nags Head - with bacon. And no I didn't have cheese in my grits. Theory's great - as long as you have some SEC portfolio yield to watch your back.
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Old 10-10-2008, 09:49 AM   #3
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eh?
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Old 10-10-2008, 09:59 AM   #4
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i say we through efficient market hypothesis or theory or whatever it is into the trash
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:03 AM   #5
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Black Swans are really true!
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:08 AM   #6
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What do you think of the theory?
What theory? That this is the biggest bear market we've seen? Yes, I think that holds true for me since I think I had a passbook savings account with $100 in it for the 1987 correction and I hadn't started saving for retirement during the dot com pop.

As for, what will I do? Plow another slug into savings and a slightly bigger slug into the market... same as every month. Although, I can't say that I won't be tempted to try and time selling in the future.... I'll call it asset allocation and only do it when thresholds are passed.
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Just My Inane Thoughts
Old 10-10-2008, 10:13 AM   #7
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Just My Inane Thoughts

I think that every weak kneed, panty waist about to panic should be forced to watch Jimmy Stewart in "It's A Wonderful Life".

Furthermore, I think anyone flying a US flag and going from equities to cash should be beaten with a stick. This is no longer just about the individual.

The upbeat part is that I remain convinced those of us with brass balls will eventually be rewarded.
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:21 AM   #8
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I think that every weak kneed, panty waist about to panic should be forced to watch Jimmy Stewart in "It's A Wonderful Life".

Furthermore, I think anyone flying a US flag and going from equities to cash should be beaten with a stick. This is no longer just about the individual.

The upbeat part is that I remain convinced those of us with brass balls will eventually be rewarded.

My brass balls are getting tarnished. I'm now 100% stocks after buying all the way down. I have lots of cuts from catching falling knives.

I am continuing to buy every month but the cuts are bleeding me dry
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:25 AM   #9
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I'm about to move money from bonds to stocks. I'm either nuts or brilliant.
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:31 AM   #10
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I'm about to move money from bonds to stocks. I'm either nuts or brilliant.
hormones.



This really is a serious thread. Right?

heh heh heh - "do or do not - there is no try." (Yoda). When the Norwegian widow blows the barn doors off my balanced index fund - I'll write that dang book - on unclemick's lefthanded unified general theory of chickenheartedness. .
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:39 AM   #11
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I thought it might be interesting to check facts with theory.

We have read all the books, studied the experts. Studied market history. For some of us this may be the first big bear!

What do you think of the theory?

Sound off.
Paul Samuelson, Robert Merton, and Zvi Bodie were right. I hate when that happens.
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:41 AM   #12
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I'm about to move money from bonds to stocks. I'm either nuts or brilliant.

Better timing than me. I did that last week


No guts, no glory
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:49 AM   #13
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I just did the deed. I'll either be broke or rich. On the plus side, my next 3 years worth of spending money is in a relatively stable bucket.
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:11 PM   #14
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I'll repeat some other comments:

What theory? What theory are we talking about?

I know I don't have a Crystal Ball. I can't know if this is the bottom or not. The only 'theory' that I can think of that applies, is to pick an AA that you are comfortable with, and stick with it. That means rebalancing at some point. Rebalancing will have you buying low and selling high over the long run. You are not going to hit the peaks and troughs (see Crystal Ball comment), but what else can we do?

-ERD50
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:22 PM   #15
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Black Swans are really true!
I don't think it is a Black Swan until it looks like something we have never (or at least very, very seldom) seen before.

Right now, I wouldn't say this market drop is unprecedented..... but, hmmmmm, looking at the speed at which it dropped from the peak, it's pretty bad isn't it?

Another hmmmmm. I just looked at some charts, and the NASDAQ has looked no more (maybe less) volatile than the S&P500. That is pretty weird. I guess it is all the financials in the SPY that are not in the QQQQ. I was thinking of shifting some of my SPY to a more volatile position, with the thought that if we are in a bottom, those will recover faster. Usually, I think these through and do nothing. Half the time I'm glad, half the time I'm sorry. That just re-enforces my inaction. Think I'll go take a nap.

-ERD50
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