Life expectancy?

[David1961]

When planning your retirement and/or withdrawal rates after retirement, what age do you expect to live to? It's a balance between running out of money versus running out of life. Seems like the number you choose can have a big impact on your safe withdrawal rate. I am 51 and personally use age 100. If I had a chronic health issue, I'd use a lower number. Curious what number others use.

Surprisingly

 

[obgyn65]

95.

 

[Live And Learn]

I use 90. I have a 90% chance to 90 in FIDO's RIP and 100% to 90 in FIRECalc. I am a little uneasy about it however. I figure at 90 I can figure out as way to get by on social security alone. I also try and remind myself that while there may be a 10% risk of being broke there is a 90% chance that I wont be broke and there is more than a 50% chance that I will have as sizeable donation to charity when I die. I have to convince myself of this as, many of you know, I am prone to excess worry and likely to succumb to OMY syndrome.

 

[travelover]

I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

 

[bld999]

I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

Now that's taking charge...make those variables dance to your tune!

 

[Snowcat]

I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

So, what age do you get 100%?

We are using 100 DH (that is 97 for me). We get 100%. I would be amazed if either of us made it to that age. If I recall some study results, I think there is only a 10% of one of us making it.

 

[travelover]

So, what age do you get 100%? ...........

Well I did it when I was 54. I think the 100% age was around 61.

 

[Animorph]

I went for 92. We'll adjust withdrawals as needed to maintain a decent sized portfolio even then.

 

[HighRoller]

Before I retired earlier last year, I wanted to see 100% on FireCal and my own spreadsheets out to age 100. Realistically I'd be surprised to make it to 90.

 

[Katsmeow]

So, what age do you get 100%?

We are using 100 DH (that is 97 for me). We get 100%. I would be amazed if either of us made it to that age. If I recall some study results, I think there is only a 10% of one of us making it.

Vanguard's calculator says that a couple both age 65 have a 5% chance of one making it to 100.

In our case - DH is 6 1/2 years older than me. I ran the calculator a couple of ways. I've tied it mostly to 30 years based on his age, however, I have run it 35 years based on mine. What I found was that there wasn't much difference in spending for 35 years versus 30. Further, if I calculated the likely result which is that I would be a widow for some of that a 30 year plan where both DH and I were here also gave enough money for a 35 year plan where I was a widow for some part of it.

Another thing is that I want a lot of certainty and good percentages for 30 years. I might run 40 years but I don't require as high a percentage for that length of time as it is very unlikely.

 

[Jgot]

95

 

[LakeTravis]

85.

 

[Spanky]

I use 90 just for planning purpose.

 

[Independent]

We've got an
X% chance of our money lasting till 90
Y% chance of our money lasting till 95
Z% chance of our money lasting till 100

I look at all of these.

 

[Alan]

92, or is it 93?, or 94?, heck, can't remember

 

[FIREd]

Planning-wise, I use 100 for both DW and me, even though none of our grandparents lived beyond the age of 90.

 

[traineeinvestor]

I used 100 for DW (which implies 107 for me - nearly twice the age my maternal grandfather was when he dies of a heart attack). Since DW will be 41 when I [-]shuffle[/-] run out of the office for the last time at the end of September* , I don't see much difference between 59 years and forever when it comes to planning how much we need.


* okay, I'm doing a very part time thing for a while after but I will be retired then

 

[Thormole]

Life expectancy

I use 95 for wife and me. Always the optimist!!

 

[bUU]

I'm using 86. I think there are a number of things that will keep my longevity down, not the least of which is that my spouse is ten years older, and I think that's going to have its impact.

 

[gerntz]

I take those here that have good health but use less than 100 are intent on making sure they die penniless. Guess that's fine if you need every bit of income a lesser LE provides. But me, I'd dial back a bit. This is self-serving as we can afford 100, probably 150, with our lifestyle, but even if not I think I'd take security.

 

[omni550]

102.

Parents passed at 88 and 89. Uncle died at 94. Aunt still alive at 95.

Things I've read say that medical and healthcare developments could result in our generation outliving our parents' generation by ~10 years.


omni

 

[Midpack]

I use 95. DW's Mom is 86 and my parents are both 91, all still ticking...albeit slower.

 

[JakeBrake]

I was looking for a birthday card at a Big Lots store the other day. I noticed they had a 100 year birthday card section.

Now, I might expect to see a 100 year birthday card section at a health food store or a store that deals in physical fitness products, But, Big Lots?

This tells me that there must be a big lot of people having a 100 year birthday.

FYI, I use 100 as my life expectancy. Even though none of my immediate male ancestors(father, grandfathers, and uncles) lived to be older than 74. They're all dead now. Note that I only use my male ancestors to estimate my life expectancy.

On the other hand DW's grandmother lived to be 106. She lived in a log cabin way out in the country until she had to move to a nursing home for her last several years.

 

[omni550]

I was looking for a birthday card at a Big Lots store the other day. I noticed they had a 100 year birthday card section.

Now, I might expect to see a 100 year birthday card section at a health food store or a store that deals in physical fitness products, But, Big Lots?

This tells me that there must be a big lot of people having a 100 year birthday.

"Centenarians are the fastest-growing demographic in much of the developed world. By 2030 it is expected that there will be around a million centenarians worldwide."

Research into centenarians - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

omni

 

[Arifriekinel]

I usually guess around 100. I don't have much genetics to go off of, most of my family members died from stabbing, military service, non-genetic diseases, etc. My two oldest living relatives are getting up there, my grandmother's sister on my fathers side being in her 90s, and my great grandmother's sister on my mothers side also in her 90s.

But it doesn't seem like enough data, so I based it partially off of my livingto100.com score of 97, and that most sources think that women born in 1993 are suspected to have a 25-30% chance of living to 100, and that's just too high not to plan for. I suspect it'll be a lot more common to see that age around in the 2090's.