Little faith in the market now

07/01/1929 Wellington SEC yield Friday on the Vanguard website 4.35%.

Or that young punk - pssst Wellesley, 07/01/1970, SEC yield 5.78%.

Now if we all fessed up and admitted it was that stone simple - we would be stuck with discussions of bacon, dryer sheets, pictures of our hobbies and travels, etc.

Or even my poor - wait til next year Saint's. :rolleyes: :D :D :angel:.

As long as Angus Maddison doesn't X America off his list - I think we're good to go.

Eli or Romo tonight?

heh heh heh - :cool:
 
Certainly isn't going to happen? Do you know something with 100% confidence that we don't?

It's VERY fashionable to be a uberbear right now, and you may well be right, but the bears are getting awfully bold in their predictions now that some of them have (more or less) come true...

I'm 95% confident a consumer recovery isn't going to happen next year. The fundamentals are still poor. The government is going to try a couple more economic stimulus packages(because the last one worked out so well :rolleyes:) and we're just now seeing the tail end of 3/1 ARM loans and still have a glut of 5/1 ARMs that are going to be headed into foreclosure in the next couple years. Banks aren't going to be loose like like they were a couple years ago with their credit for at least 4 years when this recession was so long ago nobody remembers how it happened. Once the tide of foreclosures starts to eb you'll see credit reappear and until that happens the general populace just wont have the access to money even if they want to spend it.
 
I'm 95% confident a consumer recovery isn't going to happen next year. The fundamentals are still poor. The government is going to try a couple more economic stimulus packages(because the last one worked out so well :rolleyes:) and we're just now seeing the tail end of 3/1 ARM loans and still have a glut of 5/1 ARM that are going to be headed into foreclosure in the next couple years. Banks aren't going to be lose like like they were a couple years ago with their credit for at least 4 years when this recession was so long ago nobody remembers how it happened. Once the tide of foreclosures starts to eb you'll see credit reappear and until that happens the general populace just wont have the access to money even if they want to spend it.

With all due respect, while you might(or might not!) be 100% correct at prognosticating economic conditions, that doesn't necesarily say much about capital markets. It's like being the genius who can pick 80% winners in the NFL, as long as he can pick without a spread. Capital markets are like betting markets- everything is priced by expectations.

Ha
 
No, call it 95% confidence. I've studied this credit bubble and the consumer for the last two years, and this year enjoyed about a +40% return as a result. People like to say you can't predict the future, but that's not true - in some ways you can. Yes the consumer will retrench, retracing a 25 year spending spree until their savings go back up above 10% (this probably won't take 25 years though).

And I don't like how if you have a negative prediction your suddenly an 'uber bear'. I don't have any particular affiliation - bull or bear - but I just like to understand reality as best I can. And two years ago a credit crash was writ large in spray paint, as is the condition of U.S. consumers.

Take it for what it's worth, but the credit crash is actually a sideshow, the real story is consumer retrenchment, which has been my position. Look - I'm just looking for investment opportunities, if it was in buying gold or stocks I'd be all over it.

Certainly isn't going to happen? Do you know something with 100% confidence that we don't?

It's VERY fashionable to be a uberbear right now, and you may well be right, but the bears are getting awfully bold in their predictions now that some of them have (more or less) come true...
 
For me, the biggest loss of faith is in the transparency of the markets due to the complexity of todays investment vehicles. The market can't serve it's purpose of being a weighing machine if there are vast segments of the economy (like the MBS's) that only hop on to the scale during a disaster and show up as black boxes most of the time to most players.

I also agree with Greenspan when he recently conceded:
“Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief”.

Our whole stock market is predicated on the idea that companies and shareholders have the same interest, namely growing and protecting the market value of the company.

But then Moody's goes and digs its grave by knowingly giving bogus ratings to MBSs. And lots of companies buy these MBSs without adequate due diligence, digging their own graves. So why would they have done such a thing, which appears to be against their self interests? I think it actually was in the self interests of the decisionmakers at Moody's and other companies to dig those graves. The employees who did this stuff thought they could take the profits now, which would make them look like stars and increase their bonuses, and then move on to another company before the shareholders had to clean up the mess. Or hope that a rising market would hide their tracks.

This points out a fundamental conflict of interest: Different players have different time horizons. A CEO is financially motivated by the compensation he receives while he is CEO; If the company falls over and dies the day after he leaves, no skin off his back. With CEOs turning over every few years, they aren't looking at the big picture.

The shareholder on the other hand is affected by results (and predictions of results) for the entire lifetime of the company.

None of these players are affected by collateral damage (e.g. if the failure of their company takes down the US economy as a whole). In fact there's now a perverse incentive: If a company can shift their failures into an area that would cause collateral damage to others, then they might be able to count on the government to step in and bail them out.

This disconnect between the self interests of the players and the markets is not new, but I think technology and lax regulation have made it easier for the players to hide things from the market, and therefore the market may not be as good of a weighing machine as it had been in the past.
 
With all due respect, while you might(or might not!) be 100% correct at prognosticating economic conditions, that doesn't necesarily say much about capital markets. It's like being the genius who can pick 80% winners in the NFL, as long as he can pick without a spread. Capital markets are like betting markets- everything is priced by expectations.

Ha

That's true but this isn't a game of football where you can run through the teams stats and have a pretty good idea what one team will do against another team. The expectations the market trusts are all from people who have been right for the last 35 years and so far the bulls have been right 95% of the time and the bears mostly wrong. everyone who went to school in that time has been taught that bias so everything is slanted to be more optimistic than is warranted.

A year ago, 6 months ago, and 2 months ago that same thing has been said over and over. That all these future mortgage failures and bank failures have been priced into the market so it's all up from here, also expect $200/barrel oil by the end of the year.

The dominant school is Keynesian and that school treats price declines and economic slow downs as some kind of superstitious mysticism where the markets decline but they don't know why and blame it on savings.

Nothing can expand forever; a Ponzi scheme works great until you run out of people to buy into it.
 
The expectations the market trusts are all from people who have been right for the last 35 years and so far the bulls have been right 95% of the time and the bears mostly wrong. everyone who went to school in that time has been taught that bias so everything is slanted to be more optimistic than is warranted.

A year ago, 6 months ago, and 2 months ago that same thing has been said over and over. That all these future mortgage failures and bank failures have been priced into the market so it's all up from here, also expect $200/barrel oil by the end of the year.

The dominant school is Keynesian and that school treats price declines and economic slow downs as some kind of superstitious mysticism where the markets decline but they don't know why and blame it on savings.

This is all very true. The long run we've enjoyed was largely due to continually expanding credit - and an wonderful technology boom along the way. But one thing you can depend on in economics is that nothing grows uninterrupted to the sky forever. The trick is picking when it doesn't.
 
Be careful with Treasuries at these levels, especially the longer term ones. If we get any sort of return to normal interest levels, it is going to demolish long-term Treasuries.

If you run the numbers on the value of a 3% 30-year Treasury when interest rates go to 6%, it gets pretty ugly.

Everyone is talking about deflation right now, but with the government running those printing presses as fast as they can, I would expect that a year or two from now we will be talking about serious inflation again.

Just make sure that you aren't avoiding one risk and running smack dab into a worse one.


I've had my TSP heavily in equity funds over the years and made a little money, but had enough dumb-luck to move it all to the G Fund (Treasuries) in early 2007. To move any significant percentage of it back to equities after the events of the past year would take an extraordinary degree of market confidence on my part. This is not just a financial "game" I am playing - it's my life. Sure I'm not beating inflation with Treasuries right now - but I expect to "just" do so in future years with perhaps a little extra.
 
Be careful with Treasuries at these levels, especially the longer term ones. If we get any sort of return to normal interest levels, it is going to demolish long-term Treasuries.

Unless you hold them to term of course, then you can reinvest at higher coupon or some other investment.

If you stay away from bond funds, rising interest rates are great as they allow you to increase your growth and income, if you're a buy & hold bond investor.
 
If interest rates go up to 6%, you are still losing a lot of buying power in a 30-year treasury paying <3%, even if you hold it to term.

30 years of getting 3% on your principle instead of 6% is a massive hit.

Inflation is very likely to eat the people buying these bonds alive.

Unless you think the government will be restrained in their printing of money >:D

Unless you hold them to term of course, then you can reinvest at higher coupon or some other investment.

If you stay away from bond funds, rising interest rates are great as they allow you to increase your growth and income, if you're a buy & hold bond investor.
 
I'm no financial wiz - but I don't think Treasuries issued for the TSP G-Fund are the same as others.

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/fundsheet-gfund.pdf

Perhaps someone more expert could enlighten me further as to the differences vis-a-vis fluctuating interest rates & inflation?
You are indeed correct. A very nice deal that only the fed govt can get. Long term rates while investing in short term securities, with no interest rate risk or risk of principal loss. Hopefully I can take advantage of it someday. If my I and S funds don't continue to dwindle down.:eek:

The G Fund offers the opportunity to earn rates of interest similar to
those of long-term Government securities but without any risk of loss
of principal and very little volatility of earnings.
• The objective of the G Fund is to maintain a higher return than inflation
without exposing the fund to risk of default or changes in market prices.
• The G Fund is invested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities specially
issued to the TSP. Payment of principal and interest is guaranteed by
the U.S. Government. Thus, there is no “credit risk.”
• The interest rate resets monthly and is based on the weighted average
yield of all outstanding Treasury notes and bonds with 4 or more years
to maturity.
• Earnings consist entirely of interest income on the securities.•
Interest on G Fund securities has, over time, outpaced inflation and
90-day T-bills.
 
Unless you hold them to term of course, then you can reinvest at higher coupon or some other investment.

Weren't you touting the benefits of 30 year zeros? That's a long time to wait to reinvest. Not to mention a lot of potential inflation erosion to endure and massively ugly marks along the way.

And you might want to forget about the consumer. With all this free money were heading back to levered investing (already starting to see it ramp up again). Lots of juicy yields to arbitrage with those zero or near zero cost dollars the Fed is offering. It will start with high quality stuff (e.g. sell treasuries and buy government guaranteed debt pick ~200bp) but as those returns get arbed (or leveraged) away, it will move down in quality. It always does. I'll be stunned if investment grade corporate bonds don't outperform treasuries in 2009 by a wide margin . . . seems like a lock.
 
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