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Old 04-19-2013, 12:06 AM   #21
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I am aware of the history of gold prices and I know that the 1980-2000 scenario you describe could happen again. It does not deter me.

By the way, the same can be true for stocks (look at the Nikkei), and other assets as well, I'm sure.
In which case I'd still be wondering, and looking for, better places elsewhere. Riding out the fluctuations works when you expect prices to rise again within a reasonable time, but if we had a 20 year bear market in stocks, I think even Bogle would be ok with looking at options. YMMV.
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Old 04-19-2013, 12:23 AM   #22
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Peter Bernstein said you’re not truly diversified unless you have an allocation in your portfolio that you are uncomfortable owning.
Pithy, but I'm pretty sure he didn't mean to invest in something foolhardy with a probable bleak outlook for the forseeable future, and I'm not sure it makes good financial sense to have stagnating assets eaten away by inflation for two decades.

I would think some kind of stop-loss in the case of falling prices, or time limit in the case of stagnation would be prudent. YMMV.
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Old 04-19-2013, 12:26 AM   #23
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My gold allocation, if it can be considered as such is less than 2.5%, all in miners. But I don't really consider it an allocation, more a speculation. How could I soberly allocate to gold when to my mind there is no real way to determine its worth?
+1 and better said than I'm doing.
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Old 04-19-2013, 12:41 AM   #24
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Pithy, but I'm pretty sure he didn't mean to invest in something foolhardy with a probable bleak outlook for the forseeable future, and I'm not sure it makes good financial sense to have stagnating assets eaten away by inflation for two decades.
Lots of definitive statements about the future here. Let's wait and see what happens, shall we?
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Old 04-19-2013, 07:31 AM   #25
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An infrequent blog post from Ray Dalio Ray Dalio Blog: RAY DALIO: There's No Sensible Reason Not To Own Gold

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"I think gold should be a portion of every one's portfolio to some degree because it diversifies the portfolio. It is the alternative money." - Ray Dalio
./.
There's no sensible reason not to have some. If you're going to own a currency, it's not sensible not to own gold. Now it depends on the amount of gold. But if you don't own, I don't know 10%, if you don't have that and that depends on the world, then there's no sensible reason other than you don't know history and you don't know the economics of it.
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