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Old 03-08-2009, 11:22 AM   #21
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We are in a phase of creative destruction (see Joseph Schumpeter). Watch for innovation.
I meant to say that.

Creative destruction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 03-08-2009, 11:44 AM   #22
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OK, so let's think outside the box and see if we can predict some of the new growth that will shoot up after the forest fire has extinguished. Here are a few that come to mind:

Health care:
Genetically customized health care (Now that the human genome has been sequenced, this can't be too far away)

More healthcare delivered electonically (Why visit your doctor in person? email a photo of your rash and send your home BP recordings to your nurse practitioner,get an eprescription, get support from an eforum, and email reminders to get your checkups and immunizations)
Environment:
Environmental cleanup enterprises

Carbon capture technology

Transportation:
Light rail and high speed rail (not new, but potential growth in North America)

Hybrid, fuel cell and electric cars

Finance:
Financial regulation will be a growth industry in most countries

Ideas, anyone?
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Old 03-08-2009, 11:49 AM   #23
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Part of the problem is that a proven history of working hard and being well-able to learn new skills means almost nothing any more; that and about $4 gets you a Happy Meal. A lot of people may be willing and able to start a new career in another field, but that means they would be entering it with no experience... which gives them virtually no chance of being hired.

"On the job training" is becoming more and more a thing of the past. It matters less and less what kind of person, a worker and a learner you are, it seems, and more and more how many years you've done something specifically.
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Old 03-08-2009, 02:38 PM   #24
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OK, so let's think outside the box and see if we can predict some of the new growth that will shoot up after the forest fire has extinguished... Ideas, anyone?
There is a group of Trend Spotters that I get a newsletter from every month. The last one made this free pamphlet available (PDF):

"Eco-Bounty"

Quote:
While financial woes may hold back some green initiatives, the future has never looked greener. Mainly because creating a more sustainable economy is not an option, but a necessity. And we all know that necessity is the mother of invention. Which is why this month, amidst crumbling banks, G20 meetings and stimulus plans, we highlight 12 eco sub-trends that any marketer or entrepreneur can act on today.
I did not download it but I can vouch for the quality of research this group produces.

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Trendwatching.com is an independent and opinionated consumer trends firm, relying on a global network of 8,000 spotters. Our trends, examples and insights are delivered to business professionals in more than 120 countries.
For those serious about this issue, this is the perfect place to begin your journey.
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"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 03-08-2009, 02:54 PM   #25
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While financial woes may hold back some green initiatives, the future has never looked greener. Mainly because creating a more sustainable economy is not an option, but a necessity.
I wonder how well this will take off when people figure out how expensive it will be.

Exhibit A. PSE&G, my local utility, is asking for permission to spend $800MM to build new solar power generation. Press Releases An equivalently sized coal plant (120MW) would cost about $275MM and produce nearly 3 times as much electricity every year as solar will.

I know "green" is all the rage, but are people really ready to spend that much more for it?
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:02 PM   #26
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I know "green" is all the rage, but are people really ready to spend 9 times more for it?
So you believe that at some point in the (near?) future they (we) are going to have a choice?

In any event, are you looking at this thread as a Consumer or as an Investor?
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"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:05 PM   #27
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So you believe that at some point in the (near?) future they (we) are going to have a choice?

In any event, are you looking at this thread as a Consumer or as an Investor?
As a pragmatist.

How well did investors in Ethanol plants fare?
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:12 PM   #28
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How well did investors in Ethanol plants fare?
At the beginning, mid-point or end? (Assuming, of course, that the end was reached.)
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"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:16 PM   #29
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At the beginning, mid-point or end? (Assuming, of course, that the end was reached.)

I'm assuming we're at the end for a fuel that costs more to produce, is incompatible with our existing infrastructure, is less efficient to burn, and arguably causes more environmental harm (and human suffering?) than what it replaces. Unless the corn lobby can resurrect it . . . in which case I'd say we're closer to the beginning.
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