Living in Interesting Times
- Thread starter RonBoyd
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LOL!
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Yep, I read that the other day. My take-away message was that if your job did not have some kind of clear direct need or benefit to mankind then it was going away.
Some examples:
If folks are only replacing their cars every 8 years instead of every 4 years on average, that means the car industry gets cut in half.
If folks eat out only 1 day a week instead of 2 days a week, then restaurant business gets cut in half. Same for take-out.
Strip malls with their little businesses of clothes boutiques, Hallmark card places, GNC stores, are in for very rough times.
Grocery stores, gas stations, and some health care are going to do fine. I'm not sure how banks are gonna make money. Loans for commerce will not be needed since there will be little commerce. Small businesses will not need to expand, so no loans needed for that either.
It's gonna be about food, shelter, schools and education, health care, road maintenance, law enforcement, and maybe some military stuff. If you ever lived in an Eastern bloc communist country ... that's the kind of commerce that will be taking place. No frills, just the basics, ma'am.
Some examples:
If folks are only replacing their cars every 8 years instead of every 4 years on average, that means the car industry gets cut in half.
If folks eat out only 1 day a week instead of 2 days a week, then restaurant business gets cut in half. Same for take-out.
Strip malls with their little businesses of clothes boutiques, Hallmark card places, GNC stores, are in for very rough times.
Grocery stores, gas stations, and some health care are going to do fine. I'm not sure how banks are gonna make money. Loans for commerce will not be needed since there will be little commerce. Small businesses will not need to expand, so no loans needed for that either.
It's gonna be about food, shelter, schools and education, health care, road maintenance, law enforcement, and maybe some military stuff. If you ever lived in an Eastern bloc communist country ... that's the kind of commerce that will be taking place. No frills, just the basics, ma'am.
Even health care isn't safe. A friend is a nurse; local nursing staff is getting cut back. One in outright layoffs (elective surgery nurses), and two is nurses aids. The loss of the aides means the nurses have to work harder, and I imagine it ripples up to the doctors.
sander06
Dryer sheet aficionado
I don't know... the above prognastication all sounded rather refreshing to me some how.
cantlogin
Full time employment: Posting here.
I understand how that conclusion was arrived at and the logic has merit, but as soon as a demand for more "frills" develops, entrepreneurs are likely to develop businesses seeking to profit from the opportunity.
What I have trouble understanding is why developers are continuing to build shopping centers and business parks in today's economy. I see big projects in progress everywhere I travel.
What I have trouble understanding is why developers are continuing to build shopping centers and business parks in today's economy. I see big projects in progress everywhere I travel.
The problem with most thinking is that it is very shortsighted and influenced heavily by issues and moods of the moment.
The reality is that we don't know, it can go many ways. I believe that once this is all shaken out, the weak overleveraged will fall by the wayside, those in a strong position will emerge, and ideas currently unheard and untried will slowly emerge.
We will be a meaner leaner nation, produce less, but better quality. Perhaps we will slow down a bit, perhaps instead of importing and producing junk, quality will be the norm.
Maybe there are too many people working, perhaps there should be one bread winner, with lower prices for housing and goods, this may be possible, perhaps we expanded too fast.
If we go back to doing what we did, we will get the same result in another 10 years, but if we retool and rethink, we can actually turn out better. Interesting times can turn into interesting out of the box results
jug
The reality is that we don't know, it can go many ways. I believe that once this is all shaken out, the weak overleveraged will fall by the wayside, those in a strong position will emerge, and ideas currently unheard and untried will slowly emerge.
We will be a meaner leaner nation, produce less, but better quality. Perhaps we will slow down a bit, perhaps instead of importing and producing junk, quality will be the norm.
Maybe there are too many people working, perhaps there should be one bread winner, with lower prices for housing and goods, this may be possible, perhaps we expanded too fast.
If we go back to doing what we did, we will get the same result in another 10 years, but if we retool and rethink, we can actually turn out better. Interesting times can turn into interesting out of the box results
jug
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
The thing is, it's hard not to see it ending in more people chasing fewer jobs. Not good.
As for the single-earner households, I think there's too much job insecurity out there for people to expose themselves willingly to that single point of failure. Even if the one income was sufficient, I don't know that many people would want to be in the position where their earned household income drops to zero in case of job loss.
OAG
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Here is an extreme of too few jobs and and excess of applicants: Stark’s hottest job: Janitor - Canton, OH - CantonRep.com
Bikerdude
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ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Yeah, but first and foremost, I think, this is a full-time government job with security and benefits. I doubt we'd see that for a $9 per hour private sector custodian with less benefits and security.
And we have the usual "overqualified need not apply" comments.
Perhaps for the first time in our history we will become an emmigrant nation. People will be leaving for greener pasteurs, ya never know!
Jug
OAG
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
It has happened before, not on a grand scale, and ironically, during the "Great Depression". Lots of Ford workers left the US and went to Russia to produce Ford Autos. It did not work out well for them however. Here is a text of that era (read some f the reviews to get a gist of the text): Amazon.com: The Forsaken: An American Tragedy in Stalin's Russia: Tim Tzouliadis: Books
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
If other baby boomers can somehow manage to retire, that would open up a lot of good, even high paying jobs for younger generations. That is my hope, anyway. I plan to contribute my job to one of America's young scientists in about 8 months, recession be d***ed.
From talking to other baby boomers that I work with, I think there is a huge desire to retire although most do not see how they can do it. It would help if SS was more of a sure thing, or if the idea of LBYM and having a plan would become more in vogue.
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I see that too. Several stores in the local mall are gone now, but Target is building a new store across the street.
Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
Several of my baby boomer friends are not retiring because of fear . They had plans but some of their plans have now been washed away . Even with SS you still need some more income from somewhere to have even a LBYM's lifestyle . So they are staying at jobs they are tired of for fear of retiring and not being able to make it financially and not being able to return to a decent paying job .
Gone4Good
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Because in many cases projects are too far along to stop. Contracts signed. Equipment ordered. Most of the money has already been spent. So the decision for many is, after having spent 80% on the project, do I invest the remaining 20% to get a finished product that may last for 40+ years, or save 20% and be the proud owner of a very expensive hole in the ground.
growing_older
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I doubt that there are many two-income households that are living on only one income. (Of course it would be a good idea if there were and they are disproportionately represented here.) Most two-income households need both incomes to stay solvent and make payments, so in fact the second income isn't as much a safety net as it is a second point of failure. They can lose either job and find it impossible to keep up with the mortgage and other bills. See Elizabeth Warren's work for more details.
Thanks for the link, I'm going to see if the library has a copy of this book. My Dad graduated from college in 1930 with a degree in metalurgy. He said he interviewed for a job based in Russia and decided he'd take it if it was offered to him. The guy who had the job decided he'd better not quit after all due to the economy. My Dad ended up taking a job at Dow Chemical, he was one of three people who got a job that year. In the class of '31, none of them got jobs after college.
OP
OP
RonBoyd
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Meadbh
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OK, so let's think outside the box and see if we can predict some of the new growth that will shoot up after the forest fire has extinguished. Here are a few that come to mind:
Health care:
Health care:
Genetically customized health care (Now that the human genome has been sequenced, this can't be too far away)
More healthcare delivered electonically (Why visit your doctor in person? email a photo of your rash and send your home BP recordings to your nurse practitioner,get an eprescription, get support from an eforum, and email reminders to get your checkups and immunizations)
Environment:More healthcare delivered electonically (Why visit your doctor in person? email a photo of your rash and send your home BP recordings to your nurse practitioner,get an eprescription, get support from an eforum, and email reminders to get your checkups and immunizations)
Environmental cleanup enterprises
Carbon capture technology
Transportation:Carbon capture technology
Light rail and high speed rail (not new, but potential growth in North America)
Hybrid, fuel cell and electric cars
Finance:Hybrid, fuel cell and electric cars
Financial regulation will be a growth industry in most countries
Ideas, anyone?
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Part of the problem is that a proven history of working hard and being well-able to learn new skills means almost nothing any more; that and about $4 gets you a Happy Meal. A lot of people may be willing and able to start a new career in another field, but that means they would be entering it with no experience... which gives them virtually no chance of being hired.
"On the job training" is becoming more and more a thing of the past. It matters less and less what kind of person, a worker and a learner you are, it seems, and more and more how many years you've done something specifically.
"On the job training" is becoming more and more a thing of the past. It matters less and less what kind of person, a worker and a learner you are, it seems, and more and more how many years you've done something specifically.
OP
OP
RonBoyd
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
There is a group of Trend Spotters that I get a newsletter from every month. The last one made this free pamphlet available (PDF):
"Eco-Bounty"
I did not download it but I can vouch for the quality of research this group produces.
For those serious about this issue, this is the perfect place to begin your journey.
Gone4Good
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I wonder how well this will take off when people figure out how expensive it will be.
Exhibit A. PSE&G, my local utility, is asking for permission to spend $800MM to build new solar power generation. Press Releases An equivalently sized coal plant (120MW) would cost about $275MM and produce nearly 3 times as much electricity every year as solar will.
I know "green" is all the rage, but are people really ready to spend that much more for it?
