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Old 07-09-2008, 12:05 PM   #21
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Agreed. You're an honest man.

In a recent thread, you pointed out that SUV rental is currently cheaper than a small car after all analysis. Perhaps renters are either subconsciously or deliberately paying for a greener alternative, even if it costs more.
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Old 07-09-2008, 12:18 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
However, from what I read, they are shutting down windmills because they do not have the power lines in place to get it from 'there' to 'here'... and it would cost $2 Bill to put them in.... and everybody would get the bill since that is the distribution system which everybody gets to pay for..
An awful lot of such things will suddenly become economically attractive if coal prices remain around where they are now. Most of the spike hasn't been felt in electricity prices because US utilities had longer term contracts in place at much lower prices. As those contracts roll over, I expect to see significantly higher prices for power.
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Old 07-09-2008, 12:19 PM   #23
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An awful lot of such things will suddenly become economically attractive if coal prices remain around where they are now. Most of the spike hasn't been felt in electricity prices because US utilities had longer term contracts in place at much lower prices. As those contracts roll over, I expect to see significantly higher prices for power.
Might be a good time to get into the business of efficiency upgrades.
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Old 07-09-2008, 01:51 PM   #24
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[quote=ziggy29;680781]I doubt that Alberta needs as much A/C as Texas does.
quote]

You can say that again! Although, in our neighbourhood, there are a surprising number of houses that do have in AC. Economically, I think it's a waste up here since there are only a handful of days in the summer when it gets brutally hot. Also, the nice thing about Calgary is that it cools off at night since we're so close to The Rockies.

I know how hot Texas can get...I lived in Tulsa for a couple of years and was surprised I didn't melt in the summer.
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Old 07-09-2008, 05:59 PM   #25
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TX is "special" in its power market.
Brewer, I'm worried about you. That's the most restrained comment I've ever seen you make in describing a first class cluster %@$!.

A couple of years ago our rural electrical co-op (a non-participant in the TX deregulation fiasco) offered an option to switch to wind-driven power. The price was slightly higher but it offered the advantage of no fluctuations in cost due to changes in generating costs, so I signed on. For almost two years I was paying paying $0.079 per Kwh, including infrastructure costs. The price recently went up to $0.081 per Kwh, comprised of two charges:

"The fixed $0.08107 rate is made up of two parts - $0 .0637 Power Price and $0.01737 BEC Distribution Charge"


Compare that to TP's $0.211 Kwh.

Note: The per Kwh charge for "regular" power from the co-op is running around $0.095 and expected to increase by another penny in October.
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Old 07-09-2008, 06:11 PM   #26
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A couple of years ago our rural electrical co-op (a non-participant in the TX deregulation fiasco) offered an option to switch to wind-driven power. The price was slightly higher but it offered the advantage of no fluctuations in cost due to changes in generating costs, so I signed on. For almost two years I was paying paying $0.079 per Kwh, including infrastructure costs. The price recently went up to $0.081 per Kwh, comprised of two charges:
That's not bad. I believe our city buys wholesale power from the LCRA, which is sort of a central Texas version of the TVA. We pay more than than that, but still less than the rest of the state which has "energy choice."

Our rates just went up by about 12% this last month, and in our last bill we paid $150 for 1295 kWh (about 11.5 cents per, for those of you keeping score at home). When we first moved here we were paying about 8.5 cents, and that was two years ago.

The best rates I'm finding today in Houston, where we came here from, are about 17 cents a unit. I'll bet our bills in the Houston home we owned would be close to $300 a month in the summer now.

I'm a fan of free market competition as I believe it's generally pro-consumer, so I want to be a fan of electric deregulation and "competitive" energy markets. But I lived in San Jose in the Enron-induced brownout days (though we personally lived too close to a fire station to be subject to rolling blackouts), and I lived in Houston, and I'm yet to be convinced that competition in the electricity market is working. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that "energy choice," unlike many other forms of competitive markets, screws the consumer.
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Good luck!
Old 07-09-2008, 06:29 PM   #27
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Good luck!

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Originally Posted by soupcxan View Post
Here's my second thread on outrageous electricity prices. Until now we've been on the month-to-month plan and were paying about $0.12/kWh. However, in the last three months, that has shot up to $0.187/kWh. This is primarily driven by an increase in the cost of natural gas, which is how most power in Texas is generated.

My question is, I can lock in a rate of $0.15/kWh for the next 12 months. However, if rates go down, I would have to pay $100 to break the contract. I have no way to predict natural gas prices but I wonder if they have peaked and will be coming back to earth shortly (see graph). On the other hand, they could easily continue to go up. Is it worth limiting my risk by locking in the rate, or will I end up regretting it in a few months?
I'm hesitantly writing a quick off-the-top-of-the-head answer when I really should cite numerous references, which I hope to do later. (I've worked in the Texas utility field [electric & telecom] for about 16 years.)

In short: your best bet is to try to reduce consumption through cost-effective energy efficiency techniques, which will minimize the difference caused by any change in the per-kwh price (plus the total charge, of course). I say this because a whole industry of experts (including financial people, too) would love to know how to answer your question ... but they don't.

So ... sorry to say I don't know of a good answer - other than frequently checking the powertochoose.org website or the (houstonconsumerchoice.com website, if you live in Houston [a bit of the info is outdated]). I can tell from your postings that you understand the issues much, much better than the average consumer and are probably in as good a position as anyone to make

You probably know by now that (almost all of) the folks at the Public Utility Commission of Texas drink the "competition is wonderful" kool-aid, so you can't expect to get any real help from them. I would direct you to some of the many PUC reports and orders on these issues [I've been involved in many of them], but unfortunately the current and recent Commissioners are far too often guided by misguided "visions" and politics, while ignoring facts, laws, and even their own past rules and rulings.

So here's a long-term suggestion: let your elected representatives know that you're unhappy with how electric rates in your area have gone up so much higher than in the areas served by municipal utilities and co-operatives.


[To some of the other posters who discussed the relative costs of electricity generated from coal, gas, wind, the sun, etc.: one very important factor to remember is that, while wind and solar energy receive some relatively small subsidies, petroleum fuels have been receiving much, much larger direct and indirect subsidies for decades. Various "Energy Acts" have given direct funding. If one adds up all the tax policies, regulation policies, land development policies, (anti-)environmental policies, military policies, etc., one sees that state and federal governments have decided not to charge the petroleum industries the fees that other businesses have paid. All that "foregone income" had to come from somewhere: taxpayers in general.

In short, if the petroleum industries had not been so excessively favored by government in recent years/decades, the cost of wind and solar energy would be far lower than that of petroleum-based fuels.

Notice that I haven't mentioned coal. In part, that's because I don't know that fuel as well. It does seem as though coal companies have been treated leniently in regards to environmental regulation [i.e., they have not historically paid the cost to restore the damage they cause by mining] and workplace safety regulation [MSHA is apparently far more lenient to the coal industry than OSHA is to other industries]. Coal should probably cost quite a bit more, but I don't know how much it would affect electricity prices.)

(Note also: as someone else explained well below, the Texas electric generation fuel mix has much more natural gas than other states, due in part to legislative "goal-setting," due in part to the low price of natural gas during the last plant-building wave, and due in part to a mix of other factors.)
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Old 07-09-2008, 06:30 PM   #28
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That's not bad. I believe our city buys wholesale power from the LCRA, which is sort of a central Texas version of the TVA. We pay more than than that, but still less than the rest of the state which has "energy choice."
The LCRA (Lower Colorado River Authority) is also were our our co-op (Bandera Electric) gets power - including wind generation.
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"Competition" proponents worked hard to destroy real competition
Old 07-10-2008, 12:19 PM   #29
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"Competition" proponents worked hard to destroy real competition

Please disregard this post unless you want to read a long attempted explanation of why Texas electric restructuring has gone badly. [a better explanation would be much longer]

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Originally Posted by Basenji View Post
You probably know by now that (almost all of) the folks at the Public Utility Commission of Texas drink the "competition is wonderful" kool-aid, so you can't expect to get any real help from them.
I was right to be hesitant, because I forgot to mention quite a few things. (And despite the length of this post, I'm still leaving out a ton of other relevant considerations.)

Sorry again to not actually offer anything helpful here (in a practical or immediate way).
Glad to see (in another thread) that you're trying an attic radiant barrier.
Some folks are happy with having added ridge vents - apparently more effective, but also costlier, so consider the payback period.

Good luck again on making the tough choice whether to go month-to-month or medium/long-term contract. As you've learned, many retailers have guessed wrongly (and/or managed risk badly) and have gone bankrupt and/or out of business. Many customers then get shifted to a Provider of Last Resort (POLR), which charges far higher rates. (The POLRs very cleverly persuaded the PUC to effectively require the POLRs to charge above-market rates. I can recall several years ago that the POLR for San Angelo was charging 24 c/kwh while we were paying ~9 c/kwh in Austin.)

Also, several disreputable retailers have tried to escape their long-term contracts with customers after prices went up - some of them simply raised prices (unlawfully), some outrageously re-interpreted a contract clause as a loophole to justify raising prices, and some dumped their low-price-contract customers onto other retailers, which then claimed a (nonexistent) right to slap on a big surcharge. [Ultimately, the PUC sorta disapproved of that last sort of customer-dumping ... long after some PUC staff had approved it.]

And here's to a major point that I meant to mention re "competition is wonderful" ... I was (and am) a big fan of competition in general, but over time it became clear that the Texas legislature and the PUC were/are big fans of the word/slogan "competition" but actually big opponents of competition in practice. The only entities in Texas in the 90s asking for retail electric competition were the alternative wholesale generators and traders/speculators (e.g., Enron), some large industrial consumers, and a few political economists/regulators, while the utilities and commercial and residential customers were very strongly opposed. (Upon further reflection and review of legislative materials: Enron was an essential driver [prime mover, some might say] of Texas electric restructuring. I don't recall a single non-"astroturf" residential customer asking for it.)

So ... we should not have been surprised that the resulting laws, rules, and PUC decisions very strongly favored generators, traders, and some large industrial consumers. The transmission and distribution utilities have pretty much been made whole (with some big ups and some big downs), while a huge price has been paid by commercial and industrial residential (especially residential) consumers. [A few large generators, traders, and industrial customers also did badly, but mostly due to incompetence, greed, and/or fraud.] Legislators and regulators have perhaps not destroyed as much customer and shareholder wealth as they did during the telecom restructuring debacle [which the incumbent Bell companies overwhelmingly "won" regulatorily], but the damage has still been real and significant.

Just to give one small hint of an idea as to how the PUC is actually very strongly anti-competition, consider this: the PUC chairman has said in public that he expects and hopes that most retailers will disappear (merger, acquisition, bankruptcy, dissolution) and that only 2 or 3 or 4 will survive (for the whole state!!!). [There are tons of other examples, too: [mis-]interpreting their own rule to require one-way price increases [as natural gas prices rose] but to forbid price decreases [back when natural gas prices declined]; [mis-]interpreting laws and rules to require a wholesale pricing mechanism that allows all generators to make stratospheric profits during certain peak and off-peak hours or just whenever a large generator wants to control prices [apparently, as long as they don't do so too often]; etc., etc.]

{meanwhile, the PUC chairman happily asked for and accepted an enormous rebate from Austin Energy for a solar photovoltaic solar cell installation [45-75% of cost, available to all qualified customers with the upfront money and the right kind/location of roof], so his residential electric bill is a microscopic fraction of what he has helped foist on folks in "customer choice" areas.}

What I'm trying to say is that, although plenty of happy "competition" words spill forth, restructuring has been implemented in an extremely anti-competitive manner. I'm still a big fan of [true] competition and of the many small and medium sized businesses that want to make their money the honest way, but ... they don't have much of a chance in this "market."

The unfortunate reality is that Texas electric restructuring has been entirely for the benefit of a very small number of very large corporations whose officers just happened to broadly distribute campaign contributions. The return on investment on those campaign contributions has been enormous, just as the cost to most electric customers has been.
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Old 07-10-2008, 12:26 PM   #30
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Brewer, I'm worried about you. That's the most restrained comment I've ever seen you make in describing a first class cluster %@$!.

A couple of years ago our rural electrical co-op (a non-participant in the TX deregulation fiasco) offered an option to switch to wind-driven power. The price was slightly higher but it offered the advantage of no fluctuations in cost due to changes in generating costs, so I signed on. For almost two years I was paying paying $0.079 per Kwh, including infrastructure costs. The price recently went up to $0.081 per Kwh, comprised of two charges:

"The fixed $0.08107 rate is made up of two parts - $0 .0637 Power Price and $0.01737 BEC Distribution Charge"

Compare that to TP's $0.211 Kwh.

Note: The per Kwh charge for "regular" power from the co-op is running around $0.095 and expected to increase by another penny in October.
Help me out here: you are paying a smidge over 8 cents a KWH and you are upset?
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Old 07-10-2008, 12:36 PM   #31
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Help me out here: you are paying a smidge over 8 cents a KWH...
Yes
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... and you are upset?
No, I consider myself extremely fortunate.

Lost in my last edit before posting was a final sentence which read, "Compare what I'm paying to Texas Proud's situation to see what a mess this is."
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
.... my last bill I paid 21.1 cents per KWH... but had a 'contract' of 11.1 cents... it cost me $147 in one month for choosing the wrong company...
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Old 07-10-2008, 12:55 PM   #32
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The telling thing about Texas electric "deregulation" is that those areas served by co-op power are exempt from it...and virtually all of them are paying considerably less than those consumers who "benefit" from competition.

Messed up, eh?
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Old 07-10-2008, 01:03 PM   #33
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ost in my last edit before posting was a final sentence which read, "Compare what I'm paying to Texas Proud's situation to see what a mess this is."
Gotcha. I think most of us will be paying more for power in the next year, so there will be plenty of people to commiserate with.
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Old 07-10-2008, 02:27 PM   #34
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Thank you Basenji, that was a very enlightening read... even for someone just a little further north on I-35.
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:04 AM   #35
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I signed up to switch our electricity to the 1-year $0.145/kWh plan, expecting that it would take a couple of weeks to do the transfer. Naturally, after completing the form, I see a message that it could take up to 2 months, by which time we'll already be through the bulk of the summer. So much for locking in some quick savings...
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Old 07-11-2008, 01:54 PM   #36
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I signed up to switch our electricity to the 1-year $0.145/kWh plan, expecting that it would take a couple of weeks to do the transfer. Naturally, after completing the form, I see a message that it could take up to 2 months, by which time we'll already be through the bulk of the summer. So much for locking in some quick savings...
Note.... you can pay to have them read your meter out of cycle and switch as soon as you wish... cost $25 last year..
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Old 07-11-2008, 02:21 PM   #37
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I took a chance last summer and signed up (in TX) for a 2 yr guaranteed plan where I get my electricity at 12.3 cents per kwh. It's turned out to be a good move since the lowest I could get it from any company now is 14.4 cents/kwh and it goes as high as 21 cents/kwh. Something has to got to be done to re-regulate electricity in TX. Competition is NOT always better.
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Old 07-11-2008, 03:02 PM   #38
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I took a chance last summer and signed up (in TX) for a 2 yr guaranteed plan where I get my electricity at 12.3 cents per kwh. It's turned out to be a good move since the lowest I could get it from any company now is 14.4 cents/kwh and it goes as high as 21 cents/kwh. Something has to got to be done to re-regulate electricity in TX. Competition is NOT always better.

The problem is we do NOT have competition.... there are not that many companies that actually produce electricity... most are buying from one of the few and reselling... true competiton is when we have a number of producers... and they have a reason to compete...
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:10 PM   #39
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I started a thread awhile back on the mess that is "Electric Choice" in MD. On the issue of using NG at peak generation, some have reported that the regulated utilities were required to sell to consumers at cost plus whatever margin authorized by the regulators effectively charging a 'blended' rate. The unregulated utilities charge the peak marginal rate for all the electricity supplied...not sure I buy that fully, but the local utilites sold the generation facilities to an out of state outfit which is another layer of management (and cost). They charged consumers to mothball a nuclear plant which was re-commissioned instead of being retired. PUC threatened to sue and then settled for a $170 rebate to each household (regardless of how much they consumed) so politicians figure they are off the hook.

Im curious about the contract prices vs. the floating prices and wondering if there are seasonal adjustments...we pay more in the summer under the floating rate plan which helped justify the contract I purchased two yrs ago....that was a real winner until my supplier was disqualified by the PUC...it seems they failed to pay the mandated transmission fees to move electons from NJ to MD.
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Old 07-28-2008, 09:34 AM   #40
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Similar to the thread where the member bought oil futures and the price of oil proceeded to fall, I managed to lock in electric rates at the peak of NG prices around $13.5. If you see the graph that I linked to in my first post, it's updated to reflect the steep drop down in NG to $9.0, or roughly a 33% drop. The price decrease hasn't been reflected in the utilities' retail pricing yet, but I'm sure it's coming. My electric bill will be crazy this month as we're still on the market price ($0.205/kwh) and next month we'll start the 1 year plan at $0.145, but by that time I'm sure the market price will have fallen to $0.11.

I'm amazed at my ability to pick the top of the market...and then make the wrong bet on the direction it will go from there.
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