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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 06:32 PM   #21
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodmail
In the category of "at any point in time, people can make an excellent, rational case for the market going in any direction", what is out there that is long term bullish?...

3) As boomers retire, they will start to spend their 401Ks.
Hum, I keep thinking that all of the scare mongers talking about how the boomers are not prepared for retirement will result in a rush to buy mutual funds for the next decade as boomers try to catch up.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 09:31 PM   #22
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Re: Looks a lot like

Suppose it might be a rush to buy EQUITY mutual funds or individual stocks rather than diversified portfolios? After all, getting 5-6% from a stodgy bond fund wont look too exciting for someone who needs to pay "catch up" in a big way...
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 09:53 PM   #23
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Re: Looks a lot like

Due to recent tax law changes, I may have some re-allocating to do if I can do it without a taking a big capital gains hit.

So dive, dive! Please?

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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 09:56 PM   #24
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Re: Looks a lot like

My sentiments exactly. Got some cash burning a hole in my pocket and I want to buy, but I'm still looking for the bottom.

Go ahead REWahoo, you have my permission...
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 07:30 AM   #25
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Suppose it might be a rush to buy EQUITY mutual funds or individual stocks rather than diversified portfolios?
Yeah. We are not talking about careful planners here. They would be making an anxious, "hail Mary" play to achieve some modicum of FI before age forces them to retire.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 08:40 AM   #26
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
My sentiments exactly. Got some cash burning a hole in my pocket and I want to buy, but I'm still looking for the bottom.

Go ahead REWahoo, you have my permission...
I'm not gonna touch it...

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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 08:51 AM   #27
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
My sentiments exactly. Got some cash burning a hole in my pocket and I want to buy, but I'm still looking for the bottom.

Go ahead REWahoo, you have my permission...

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
I'm not gonna touch it...
"Hey, I'm a bottom. Is that cash burning a hole in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?"

Just trying to help.

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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 10:11 AM   #28
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Hum, I keep thinking that all of the scare mongers talking about how the boomers are not prepared for retirement will result in a rush to buy mutual funds for the next decade as boomers try to catch up.
Nah. People have no money. They will hit the age when they are supposed to start thinking about retirement and they will look around and say . . . I can't afford to retire. I didn't save.

The answer to this will not be massive saving into mutual funds just prior to age 65. The reason it won't is these people don't have the wherewithal. They have a lifetime of spending habits that aren't going to turn around on a moment's notice. They will not change their lives and rein in spending. They will live as they always have. There is not going to be a massive mutual fund influx from them. They will just keep working, and they may or may not delay SS -- depending on if they understand the tax hit. If they delay it, SS's solvency (for me) is more likely.

There may be an mutual fund influx from illegals who become legal. That's possible. I am looking at Mexico investment options in this context but if they assume some kind of quasi legal status, odds are they will think in terms of US permanence and US mutual funds (not Mexican) will get some modest cash -- even though these people are low income.

No, I think the primary bullish possibility to retiring boomers is that the money taken from 401Ks (which are often sitting in a money market fund) is going to be spent on stuff and the stocks of the companies that make that stuff will benefit.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 02:28 PM   #29
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Re: Looks a lot like

An interesting angle on some of the recent gyrations, esp as pertains to the FTSE.

http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...icle571737.ece

"Man Group, the world's largest quoted hedge fund manager, fuelled fears yesterday that some of its smaller competitors may be in serious trouble after revealing that some of its futures funds have made substantial losses this month.

The disclosure prompted speculation in the market that some smaller hedge funds may be suffering even greater losses and could be forced to unwind highly leveraged positions, causing share prices to spiral lower."

Ha

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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-25-2006, 02:36 PM   #30
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
An interesting angle on some of the recent gyrations, esp as pertains to the FTSE.

http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...icle571737.ece

"Man Group, the world's largest quoted hedge fund manager, fuelled fears yesterday that some of its smaller competitors may be in serious trouble after revealing that some of its futures funds have made substantial losses this month.

The disclosure prompted speculation in the market that some smaller hedge funds may be suffering even greater losses and could be forced to unwind highly leveraged positions, causing share prices to spiral lower."

Ha

Possible, considering how many stupid people are running around with a lot of money in their hands. But not all that likely.
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