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Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:15 AM   #1
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Looks a lot like

The market is fumbling around trying to find a bottom. We are back where we were before everyone decided that the Fed was ready to pack it in, and I don;t see any obvious problems with current valuations. Not a bad place to put new money to work, IMO.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:36 AM   #2
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Re: Looks a lot like

Market E/P at 5.3%, treasuries at 5%. Downside risk is probably pretty low, but upside doesn't excite me.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:37 AM   #3
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Re: Looks a lot like

That's kinda my take on it also......just bouncing along a bottom waiting for people to get over the jitters. I've been adding a little here and there over the last week. DW calls it the "peck-away" method. *:

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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:42 AM   #4
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
The market is fumbling around trying to find a bottom.* We are back where we were before everyone decided that the Fed was ready to pack it in, and I don;t see any obvious problems with current valuations.* Not a bad place to put new money to work, IMO.
I can't help feeling that we'll have many more buying opportunities between now and October...

How 'bout that EGLE!
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:00 PM   #5
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
How 'bout that EGLE!
If Supramax rates go up for the rest of the year, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:05 PM   #6
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
If Supramax rates go up for the rest of the year, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
For the last two weeks, EGLE and Berkshire Hathaway were the only green in the portfolio...
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:10 PM   #7
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
I can't help feeling that we'll have many more buying opportunities between now and October...
agreed. but my ability to predict the market is decidely flawed ... i'll likely buy a bit here and there but keep some powder dry.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:11 PM   #8
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
For the last two weeks, EGLE and Berkshire Hathaway were the only green in the portfolio...
I'm more interested in the red at the moment. I'd love to see the stuff I want to buy keep dropping (or flat) until I can buy it next week.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:19 PM   #9
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Re: Looks a lot like

I won't pretend to have the resources to market time. I just keep DCAing ~$800 a month into my accounts - we're going to have some cash flow issues for the next year or so as we get used to our new 1.5 income vice 2 income household. What does that blue fish in "Finding Nemo" say? Just keep swimming...
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:01 PM   #10
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Re: Looks a lot like

Boys, this has all the earmarks of a high risk, moderate reward "buying opportunity".

If you really like what you are buying, and don't care if it might go down 25% more, no harm done I suppose.

I bought a gas producer at prices only 5-7% higher than its private placement price, which was also the price at which management set their options and incentives. Looked pretty safe to me. Yet it is down, and might soon go below the original PP price.

Today we having another failed rally attempt in the Qs; and it is picking up speed on the downside right now. Anything can happen, but one bad thing that could happen is that Thursday and Friday might also be weak, then comes the long weekend. Lots of time to think things over, to consider the wisdom (and your DW or DH might help you with this* ) of preserving whatever gains you might have for the year, or even the last few years.

Some selling could get going early next week, and if so, people could get frightened.

So far many investors are seeing falls as buying ops. This could change.* :P

I am 65% in cash, plus some puts. Yet I don't like the feeling of seeing what stocks I do own fall.

Ha
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:14 PM   #11
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I bought a gas producer
You going to keep us in suspense?

Quote:
Today we having another failed rally attempt
Yup, I always visualize these failed rally attempts as retail investors buying on the dips, and institutional investors saying "thank you very much, would you like some more?"
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:34 PM   #12
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Re: Looks a lot like

Eh, if you can't stand the heat...

I see a whole industry now selling at basically liquidation value. Sounds good to me.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:39 PM   #13
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Re: Looks a lot like

Is this real or is this deja vu?

http://tinyurl.com/qmptg
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:47 PM   #14
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Re: Looks a lot like

Just a continuation of the BIG BEAR MARKET that started in year 2000.
Occasional blips upward make everyone think we're in a bull market and many
think this is only a correction, but no, we're in an extended bear market that may last for years and years.
Just my opinion and many will disagree and, of course, I hope I'm wrong.
But in the mean time, I'll continue to keep my portfolio low in stocks.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:54 PM   #15
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Re: Looks a lot like

Much ado about nothing, just natural cycles of the market, mean reversion or whatever you like to call it. Stay the course, IMHO.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:56 PM   #16
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by LL
Is this real or is this deja vu?
Yes, we do this every time the market hits a bump. * The bears all come out roaring. * The bulls buy on the dips. * And the buy-and-holders tell us they're holding course. * Think of it as the half-time show. *

As for me, I've been saying for the last three years that I'm a short-term bull and a long-term bear. * *My short-term bull days are numbered. * We've had the fed pump us full of adrenaline. * *We've had Bush lower taxes and spend like a drunken AWOL reservist. * We've had consumers spending their home equity. Those one-time shots have run their course.

All that's left to keep us running now is corporate spending, which might help a bit, but I have a hard time seeing much upside.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:58 PM   #17
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I see a whole industry now selling at basically liquidation value. Sounds good to me.
You gonna shed some light on your geniusry? What industry is no one talking about right now?
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 02:01 PM   #18
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
You gonna shed some light on your geniusry?* What industry is no one talking about right now?*
Hint: hurricane season starts next week.
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 02:25 PM   #19
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Re: Looks a lot like

construction? Insurance?
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Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 02:28 PM   #20
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Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
As for me, I've been saying for the last three years that I'm a short-term bull and a long-term bear. My short-term bull days are numbered. We've had the fed pump us full of adrenaline. We've had Bush lower taxes and spend like a drunken AWOL reservist. We've had consumers spending their home equity. Those one-time shots have run their course.

All that's left to keep us running now is corporate spending, which might help a bit, but I have a hard time seeing much upside.
In the category of "at any point in time, people can make an excellent, rational case for the market going in any direction", what is out there that is long term bullish?

1) The Fed has managed an upcycle without tanking the market. It now has bullets back in its pocket that it did not have a few years ago. Remember the deflation talk?

2) For the first time, perhaps ever, airlines are about to be profitable.

3) As boomers retire, they will start to spend their 401Ks. All of this money does not come from stock funds. A lot will come from fixed income. All of it, however, will get spent. What it buys will help the industries it is spent in.

4) Illegals are going to start paying taxes. Downward pressure on deficit and rates in general.

5) Latin America is finally arriving at the party of consumption.
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