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Lot's of fear here lately - Anyone still believe in FireCalc?......
Old 07-22-2010, 05:11 PM   #1
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Lot's of fear here lately - Anyone still believe in FireCalc?......

Just reading a few threads here in Fire and Money and seeing a lot of fear here lately. 2% SWRs, No growth, Deflation, worthless currency. I was wondering if anyone believes in FireCalc anymore.

IOW - Are we headed for worse times than we have had since the late 1800's which pretty much negates FireCalc? If you don't think we're headed for worse times, then you should stay the course and enjoy life and quit worrying.

What do you all say?
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Old 07-22-2010, 05:14 PM   #2
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What do you all say?
Is it Ground Hog Day?
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Old 07-22-2010, 05:24 PM   #3
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Anyone who wishes to tie themselves in knots over the unknowable is welcome to do so. I will be quite happy to buy their shares of nice businesses like LOW at a bargain price.
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Old 07-22-2010, 06:19 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
Just reading a few threads here in Fire and Money and seeing a lot of fear here lately. 2% SWRs, No growth, Deflation, worthless currency. I was wondering if anyone believes in FireCalc anymore.

IOW - Are we headed for worse times than we have had since the late 1800's which pretty much negates FireCalc? If you don't think we're headed for worse times, then you should stay the course and enjoy life and quit worrying.

What do you all say?
Glad to see you're still fishing even if your avatar is not.
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Old 07-22-2010, 07:15 PM   #5
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Anyone who wishes to tie themselves in knots over the unknowable is welcome to do so. I will be quite happy to buy their shares of nice businesses like LOW at a bargain price.
+1

The future is always uncertain and there are always at least some reasons to be pesimistic. Personally, I am far more worried when the world is (collectively) full of unqualified optimisim than I am when there are a lot of people preaching doom an gloom.
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Old 07-22-2010, 07:25 PM   #6
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Fear? Where? I see conservative asset allocations (appropriate for retired people) and caution, not fear. I don't "believe in" any one model, including FIRECalc. Never did. FIRECalc is a useful tool, and no more.

And yes,

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Is it Ground Hog Day?
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Old 07-22-2010, 07:48 PM   #7
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FIRECalc is a great tool to see if you're on track to meet your financial retirement goals based on decades of history, and thus makes for a good "sanity check."

But the thing is, there's no way to know whether the next few decades will resemble the last few decades. I'm not saying "this time it's different"; I'm saying I don't know.
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Old 07-22-2010, 08:19 PM   #8
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I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK.

I better sell everything tomorrow morning. Med's.......where are my med's.............................
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Old 07-22-2010, 08:40 PM   #9
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I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK.

I better sell everything tomorrow morning. Med's.......where are my med's.............................
Wow, congratulations!! Wish I could say the same but maybe soon.
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Old 07-22-2010, 08:45 PM   #10
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CT, wow, where ya been?

Are you still invested in mostly TIP's?
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Old 07-22-2010, 08:55 PM   #11
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I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK...
You, lucky Dawg, you...

I am still 10.5% below my high in 2007. In late April this year, I was only 3.5% away from that personal high watermark when the market started to slip.

OK, OK, you are not lucky, but a smarter market timer than I am, I concede.
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Old 07-22-2010, 09:09 PM   #12
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CT, wow, where ya been?

Are you still invested in mostly TIP's?
I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.

Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
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Old 07-22-2010, 09:23 PM   #13
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Hey CT,

I'd rather be fishing, too, and I don't even like to fish.

I'm still not retired, so any WR is a matter of theory, but I expect 4% or so will be the number, in addition to any SS that is left I get...
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Old 07-22-2010, 10:23 PM   #14
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I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.

Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
Sorry, senior moment I guess.

Good to hear from you though, hang around a bit.
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Old 07-23-2010, 07:17 AM   #15
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Did they finally get Internet access at the fishing camp?

It is true that an undertone of exuberance is heard in boom times and a little gloom during hard times. But that is only to be expected. If things settle down to a decent state in a couple of years the undertone will be "survivors," been there, done that, we have seen the worst. Until the next downturn and then, "h*ly sh*t" it isn't over yet. Eventually we will learn that this isn't the worst period in recorded history or that it is.
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Old 07-23-2010, 07:40 AM   #16
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Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
CT,
It's been a while. Has your DW retired? We miss your pictures of wonderful places that you visit.

Spanky
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Old 07-23-2010, 07:51 AM   #17
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I left my (financial) fears behind when I retired.

As far as today? No different than the past, IMHO.

As far as the "world situation" (which can affect your finances), we've always been there:

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Old 07-23-2010, 10:09 AM   #18
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I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.

Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
Sounds like fun to me...glad to have you back, at least I hope you are back..................
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Old 07-23-2010, 11:14 AM   #19
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Guys, I don't think this is the same Cut-throat.

OP, are you the same Cut-throat who restores old electronics equipment and fishes with with some famous senator or other government big-wig?
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Old 07-23-2010, 12:29 PM   #20
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I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much.
Yep, I don't want to jinx it, but I'm doing pretty well right now. Net worth is way up over my October 2007 peak, although that's because I've kept on investing, so dollar cost averaging has worked out very well for me. To truly get back to my breakeven point (October 2007+ the value of everything I've put in since then) I figure I'm still down about 11%.

That being said, I still feel kinda broke, but I think that's because some of my priorities have changed. Three years ago, I was perfectly content with where I live. Now, I've been thinking about buying another house. Or tearing down my old house and building a new one in its place. Or just doing some major renovations to the old house. Any of those choices is going to cost a lot of money. If I just sit and do nothing, I have a mortgage that's currently costing me $600 per month. Doing any of those three things I mentioned above is going to come with some serious financial consequences.

As for the overall economy though, I'm not particularly worried. From October 2007-November 2008, my net worth went down by about half. Now I'll admit, that was pretty scary. But, it bounced back so fast I'm surprised I didn't get whiplash from watching it! I guess the key is to just hold your ground, and don't sell out at the bottom, and it'll come back and then some...eventually.
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