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Lot's of fear here lately - Anyone still believe in FireCalc?......
07-22-2010, 04:11 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,172
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Lot's of fear here lately - Anyone still believe in FireCalc?......
Just reading a few threads here in Fire and Money and seeing a lot of fear here lately. 2% SWRs, No growth, Deflation, worthless currency. I was wondering if anyone believes in FireCalc anymore.
IOW - Are we headed for worse times than we have had since the late 1800's which pretty much negates FireCalc? If you don't think we're headed for worse times, then you should stay the course and enjoy life and quit worrying.
What do you all say?
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07-22-2010, 04:14 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
What do you all say?
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Is it Ground Hog Day?
__________________
Numbers is hard
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07-22-2010, 04:24 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Anyone who wishes to tie themselves in knots over the unknowable is welcome to do so. I will be quite happy to buy their shares of nice businesses like LOW at a bargain price.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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07-22-2010, 05:19 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Just reading a few threads here in Fire and Money and seeing a lot of fear here lately. 2% SWRs, No growth, Deflation, worthless currency. I was wondering if anyone believes in FireCalc anymore.
IOW - Are we headed for worse times than we have had since the late 1800's which pretty much negates FireCalc? If you don't think we're headed for worse times, then you should stay the course and enjoy life and quit worrying.
What do you all say?
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Glad to see you're still fishing even if your avatar is not. 
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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07-22-2010, 06:15 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Anyone who wishes to tie themselves in knots over the unknowable is welcome to do so. I will be quite happy to buy their shares of nice businesses like LOW at a bargain price.
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+1
The future is always uncertain and there are always at least some reasons to be pesimistic. Personally, I am far more worried when the world is (collectively) full of unqualified optimisim than I am when there are a lot of people preaching doom an gloom.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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07-22-2010, 06:25 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Fear? Where? I see conservative asset allocations (appropriate for retired people) and caution, not fear. I don't "believe in" any one model, including FIRECalc. Never did. FIRECalc is a useful tool, and no more.
And yes,
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Is it Ground Hog Day?
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__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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07-22-2010, 06:48 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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FIRECalc is a great tool to see if you're on track to meet your financial retirement goals based on decades of history, and thus makes for a good "sanity check."
But the thing is, there's no way to know whether the next few decades will resemble the last few decades. I'm not saying "this time it's different"; I'm saying I don't know.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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07-22-2010, 07:19 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK.
I better sell everything tomorrow morning.  Med's.......where are my med's.............................
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-22-2010, 07:40 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK.
I better sell everything tomorrow morning. Med's.......where are my med's............................. |
Wow, congratulations!!  Wish I could say the same but maybe soon.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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07-22-2010, 07:45 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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CT, wow, where ya been?
Are you still invested in mostly TIP's?
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07-22-2010, 07:55 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much. And I have been in conservative mode, although I did get lucky when I bought VXX and sold it a few weeks ago. So even though I'm a wuss and live in fear, you can still do OK...
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You, lucky Dawg, you... 
I am still 10.5% below my high in 2007. In late April this year, I was only 3.5% away from that personal high watermark when the market started to slip. 
OK, OK, you are not lucky, but a smarter market timer than I am, I concede. 
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-22-2010, 08:09 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454
CT, wow, where ya been?
Are you still invested in mostly TIP's?
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I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.
Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
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07-22-2010, 08:23 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Hey CT,
I'd rather be fishing, too, and I don't even like to fish.
I'm still not retired, so any WR is a matter of theory, but I expect 4% or so will be the number, in addition to any SS that is left I get...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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07-22-2010, 09:23 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.
Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
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Sorry, senior moment I guess. 
Good to hear from you though, hang around a bit.
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07-23-2010, 06:17 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,328
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Did they finally get Internet access at the fishing camp?
It is true that an undertone of exuberance is heard in boom times and a little gloom during hard times. But that is only to be expected. If things settle down to a decent state in a couple of years the undertone will be "survivors," been there, done that, we have seen the worst. Until the next downturn and then, "h*ly sh*t" it isn't over yet. Eventually we will learn that this isn't the worst period in recorded history or that it is.
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Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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07-23-2010, 06:40 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
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CT,
It's been a while. Has your DW retired? We miss your pictures of wonderful places that you visit.
Spanky
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May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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07-23-2010, 06:51 AM
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#17
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
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I left my (financial) fears behind when I retired.
As far as today? No different than the past, IMHO.
As far as the "world situation" (which can affect your finances), we've always been there:
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07-23-2010, 09:09 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I was never invested in TIPs. I invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund a few years ago and don't spend a lot of time thinking about it now.
Have been enjoying retirement and a lot of fishing. Spending the winters in Florida. Summers in Minnesota.
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Sounds like fun to me...glad to have you back, at least I hope you are back.................. 
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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07-23-2010, 10:14 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Guys, I don't think this is the same Cut-throat.
OP, are you the same Cut-throat who restores old electronics equipment and fishes with with some famous senator or other government big-wig?
__________________
Al
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07-23-2010, 11:29 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
I know better than to say this, but my portfolio is higher than it's been in months. Still down a little from my 2007 peak, but not much.
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Yep, I don't want to jinx it, but I'm doing pretty well right now. Net worth is way up over my October 2007 peak, although that's because I've kept on investing, so dollar cost averaging has worked out very well for me. To truly get back to my breakeven point (October 2007+ the value of everything I've put in since then) I figure I'm still down about 11%.
That being said, I still feel kinda broke, but I think that's because some of my priorities have changed. Three years ago, I was perfectly content with where I live. Now, I've been thinking about buying another house. Or tearing down my old house and building a new one in its place. Or just doing some major renovations to the old house. Any of those choices is going to cost a lot of money. If I just sit and do nothing, I have a mortgage that's currently costing me $600 per month. Doing any of those three things I mentioned above is going to come with some serious financial consequences.
As for the overall economy though, I'm not particularly worried. From October 2007-November 2008, my net worth went down by about half. Now I'll admit, that was pretty scary. But, it bounced back so fast I'm surprised I didn't get whiplash from watching it! I guess the key is to just hold your ground, and don't sell out at the bottom, and it'll come back and then some...eventually.
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