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10-19-2007, 03:23 PM
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#61
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,360
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by HobbyDave
You may or may not think you are seeing trends, and you may or may not have a profit. In reality there are no trends, and over an infinite amount of time, you would lose if you continued to gamble at a losing game.
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Many 'behavioral finance' papers have been published on this topic (see generally Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Gambler's Fallacy).
__________________
"To know what you prefer, instead of humbly saying Amen to what the world tells you you ought to prefer, is to have kept your soul alive". Robert Louis Stevenson, An Inland Voyage (1878)
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10-21-2007, 01:47 PM
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#62
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Pocono Mtns.
Posts: 899
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HobbyDave
Trends in random numbers?? Are you on crack?
This falls right into the bucket with the people who see "hot" poker tables, "hot" shooters in craps, etc. It is all random, but people love to pretend that there is sense to it all.
Random = random = random. There are no trends on the roulette table. If it has hit 10 red in a row, the chances are still 50% red, 50% black for the next number. That's it.
Now if you want to talk about the stock market, there are plenty of arguments for & against trends. At least there you're not dealing with randomness, you're dealing with things affected by humans.
But sorry, seeing trends in random numbers is not sane behavior.
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You are failing to consider one term in your otherwise perfect equation and that is "luck". If he is a lucky guy, wouldn't that change the probability? Some people believe in gods and you can't use logic to disuade them. 
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10-21-2007, 02:48 PM
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#63
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
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I have never purchased a lottery ticket.
A friend of mine and his girlfriend won a "$44 million" jackpot in the Virginia lottery a few months ago (I put it in quotes because the real PV is closer to 14MM).
I tell my other friends that they should never, ever buy a lottery ticket now. What are the chances that I would personally know two jackpot winners?
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10-21-2007, 02:55 PM
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#64
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Pocono Mtns.
Posts: 899
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maurice
I have never purchased a lottery ticket.
A friend of mine and his girlfriend won a "$44 million" jackpot in the Virginia lottery a few months ago (I put it in quotes because the real PV is closer to 14MM).
I tell my other friends that they should never, ever buy a lottery ticket now. What are the chances that I would personally know two jackpot winners?
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You don't really believe that your friends winning the jackpot has any effect on the outcome of any future drawing, do you?
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10-21-2007, 03:00 PM
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#65
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
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Of course not - it was meant to be funny.
Like the guy who won't fly because he's afraid terrorist may blow up the plane. Then one day he has to fly so he decides to bring a bomb himself, knowing the odds of 2 people trying to blow up the same plane are infinitesimally small...
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10-21-2007, 03:02 PM
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#66
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
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I'll add - even though I make the comment to be funny, I think I've actually persuaded a couple of people not to buy tickets anymore. Keep in mind they didn't become regular buyers because they were good at probability and statistics.
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