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03-12-2012, 05:12 PM
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#21
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 748
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Quote:
Originally Posted by modhatter
Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
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That is the key piece of info I need too!
__________________
I don't want to spend my entire life at work. I deserve more. - Want2retire aka W2R
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03-12-2012, 05:59 PM
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#22
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by modhatter
I don't think I would do it, even if my circumstances were different. Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
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I do not care at what age I die. But I would be interested in the GPS coordinates! (to make sure I never visit)
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03-12-2012, 07:05 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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Sorry to Uncle Mick. I misread the OP's post. Got it upside down.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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03-12-2012, 07:08 PM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,134
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About 4% less success, assuming the success level does not go below 88%.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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03-13-2012, 01:49 PM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Thousand Oaks
Posts: 1,111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT
I do not care at what age I die. But I would be interested in the GPS coordinates! (to make sure I never visit)
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+1!
Kind of a variation on the woody Allen saying:
"I don't mind the concept of dying. I just don't want to be there when it happens"
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03-13-2012, 06:20 PM
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#26
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I guess everybody here knows my retirement planning was pretty conservative and involved belt and suspenders and more.
I required 100%, but withdraw considerably less than that because it makes me happiest to do so. Each to his/her own.
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+1. Anything less than 100% plus a stout safety net would bother me.
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
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03-13-2012, 06:49 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I saw that FIRECalc gave me 100% at 3.5%WR and SS at full-retirement age, and felt pretty smug. Many lines projected by FIRECalc grew up to the sky, like Jack's bean stalk, telling me I am going to die rich.
But with all this "Wh***" going on, all bets are off, I'll tell ya.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-13-2012, 07:59 PM
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#28
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,866
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I've used more calculators than I care to admit to ! I'm happy (in theory) with an 80% chance of my portfolio lasting until an age I have a 25% chance of getting to. Until I think about REALLY pulling the plug, and how the decision to ER is "one directional" - and then I want to go "one more year" ......
__________________
"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11
ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
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03-13-2012, 08:12 PM
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#29
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: SoCal
Posts: 115
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I would pull the plug at 85%; although I'm sure it is easier said than done!
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03-13-2012, 08:38 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,440
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We have a desired income modeled. We will hit that number with a 100% probability of success, barring a catastrophic wheeee result, in 2016. The day we hit it we retire.
__________________
Learning how to be still, to really be still and let life happen - that stillness becomes a radiance -
Morgan Freeman
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03-13-2012, 11:06 PM
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#31
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 4,321
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Partially because I'm still almost 14 years away from the earliest time I can claim SS, I'm not comfortable with anything less than a 100% success rate according to Firecalc (and not counting SS).
Rather than figuring out what I needed to live on and using that figure to calculate how big my stash needed to be, I approached it a little backward. After getting laid off and realizing that I didn't really want to work again, I looked at my stash, used Firecalc to figure out a 100% success WR and found a way to live off less than that.
It's a rather low sum and I'm only 8 months into this experiment, but I'd rather live on a low income when I'm young and be be able to increase it as I get older, than have to do it the other way around.
Besides, it's kind of fun keeping to this strict budget (I'm weird that way).
__________________
Contentedly ER, with 3 furry friends (now, sadly, 1).
Planning my escape to the wide open spaces in my campervan (with my remaining kitty, of course!)
On a mission to become the world's second most boring man.
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03-14-2012, 01:29 AM
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#32
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Another 100% which is derived from a spending budget that has an arbitrary 20% added to it.
If I was prepared to risk 100% with no provision for additional expenditure, I would have FIREd last year. One of the reasons I am this conservative is that we still have two young children to support. I would probably be less risk averse if it was just the two of us.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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03-14-2012, 03:39 AM
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#33
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,555
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I'm not using FireCalc to decide IF I'm going to retire, but to decide how much to withdraw at a time. In my case, I want the principal to remain stable, at best, and to grow if possible, to pass on to future generations lol.
At x amount of dollars I get a 100% indication of historical success at 40 years. I will probably withdraw a number much less than x, unless I absolutely HAVE to.
__________________
"Growing old is no excuse for growing up."
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03-14-2012, 07:58 AM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packrat44
Anything less than 100% plus a stout safety net would bother me.
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Me too, though I may be a little more free spending in 20-30 years...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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03-14-2012, 08:29 AM
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#35
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Southern California
Posts: 489
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As of right now, FIRE CALC gives me a 98.2% success rate that my money would last 30 years; not counting on receiving any SS (although I am eligible; just don't have enough faith that that money would be there when I reached the age). Still, I am going to work an additional 3 and 1/2 years to play it safe or to get it to the 100% success rate.
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03-14-2012, 09:09 AM
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#36
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 927
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What about those millions of people who have nothing more than the equity in their homes, if they even own one? What about all those millions who retire with little more than SS? FIRECALC means nothing to those people and if they could run a FIRECALC on their meager "portfolios" it would point to certain failure and yet somehow voluntarily or by virtue of being too old to work or job loss big numbers of them do retire and somehow get by. Perhaps more of us should just relax and let things happen.
__________________
CW4, USA-(ret)
RN, BSN-(ret)
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03-14-2012, 09:11 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jclarksnakes
Perhaps more of us should just relax and let things happen.
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Yep. We do tend to anal-ize around here way too much.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-14-2012, 09:17 AM
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#38
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Yep. We do tend to anal-ize around here way too much.
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But then what would some people do all day?
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03-14-2012, 10:08 AM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
But then what would some people do all day?
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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