|
|
Lowest Firecalc success rate knowingly/willfully ever attempted?
03-12-2012, 10:35 AM
|
#1
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
|
Lowest Firecalc success rate knowingly/willfully ever attempted?
I wonder what it is?
I am not trying to out anybody. And I am not talking about someone that was "retired involuntarily by the man".
I am more wondering about someone that knowingly and carefully evaluated the options and said: "Firecalc says 35%....I'm jumpin' in!"
(I am also not talking about Methuselah either: "Oh dear, I am SURE to run out of money on my 126th birthday!" )
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-12-2012, 10:38 AM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
|
LRDave, you'll have to wait until their shift at Walmart ends to get a reply.
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 11:09 AM
|
#3
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,684
|
You might take a step back and ask something along the lines of "Has anybody made the decision to pull the plug based on FireCalc results alone, with no other input?".
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 11:10 AM
|
#4
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
|
I didn't even ask FIRECalc before I pulled the plug.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 11:34 AM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,934
|
As I recall I was at 87% success to age 90. FIRECalc was a major factor in my decision to bail.
__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:18 PM
|
#6
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
|
My thread topic is not really getting to the heart of my question...... Let me try this:
Keeping the other inputs as constant as makes sense -
Target ER year........ FireCalc score is 87% at age 90 (to use Onward's values above)
Target ER year minus 1.......FireCalc score is 84% at age 90 (a made-up value)
I am not saying just using FireCalc. Given the many analytical tools that are out there, assuming you have a spending target you are comfortable with, etc.
What is the risk value you would trade for an additional younger year of retirement?
I KNOW this is a very individual question. And it is philosophical, not financial.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:31 PM
|
#7
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 945
|
I don't think I would do it, even if my circumstances were different. Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:35 PM
|
#8
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
|
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:47 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,150
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
|
I was looking for more than 100%, but I always keep in mind what Dr. William Bernstein noted in his excellent Retirement Calculator from Hell series, and I am sure it's true....
Quote:
A wildly optimistic historian might give us another few centuries of economic, political, and military continuity. Back-of-the-envelope, that’s about an 80% survival rate over the next 40 years. Thus, any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless.
|
History will probably get in the way...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:57 PM
|
#10
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
I was looking for more than 100%, but I always keep in mind what Dr. William Bernstein noted in his excellent Retirement Calculator from Hell series, and I am sure it's true....History will probably get in the way...
|
Even though I was not aware of FIRECalc when I took the step I had read some of William Bernstein's writing, and it did influence me.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 12:58 PM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
|
^^^Yes - that is the essence of the question. ^^^^^
I am just sorting through my feelings, above and beyond the finances and math.
Isn't ER year minus 1 about as golden as you can get in this game? The only thing being better is ER year minus 2..... and so on.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 01:10 PM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,150
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by LRDave
^^^Yes - that is the essence of the question. ^^^^^
I am just sorting through my feelings, above and beyond the finances and math.
|
No harm in asking, but I doubt (hope) that anyones decision to retire hinged significantly on their FIRECALC probability of success. It's just another tool to confirm you're in the probability ballpark, and a backward looking tool at that. You need a saw to build a house, along with many other tools. FIRECALC is a saw, albeit a good one.
And as you note, it's not simply finances and math. In my view, the $ are the simple (but not easy) part. It's the emotional, activity, etc. transition that's difficult for many...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 01:12 PM
|
#13
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
|
I would poll Uncle Mick on this one. It sounds like his life story. He got a lemon and made lemonade.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 01:35 PM
|
#14
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
|
Although FIRECalc couldn't model my scenario exactly, I'm pretty sure it was saying about 75% for as close as I could come. That felt pretty decent with other margins of safety and spending flexibility I had. Plus I use a cash strategy of raising cash when my portfolio is above expectations and reinvesting it in bear markets, that hopefully smooths things out a bit.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 03:37 PM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
|
What if, for example, you put your life on hold, and saved and saved, so that FireCalc gives you a 100 percent sucess rate...
And then the Ebola fungus kills nearly everyone (including you). Or a meteor slams into the earth plunging the world into fire and darkness ? or an Alien invasion (from outer space) takes place.
Don't you just hate it when that happens ? Ad dontcha just wish you had maxed out those credit cards ?
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 03:46 PM
|
#16
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Tequesta
Posts: 323
|
What MasterBlaster said. There are no guarantees out there. I'm trying to balance the very real liklihood of having a shorter than 30 year retirement with the really scary prospect of either running out of money or eating cat food in my golden years. It's a tough balance. Part of me wants to get out while the getting is good and part of me keeps saying "you don't have quite enough". And just when it gets close....
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 04:03 PM
|
#17
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: seattle
Posts: 646
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by modhatter
I don't think I would do it, even if my circumstances were different. Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
|
When you talk to that someone, ask them to provide the correct year-by-year future values for: inflation, T-bonds, S&P 500, and anything else hard to impossible that retirement calculators crunch on, please...
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 04:14 PM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,459
|
I think retirement calculators were the only thing I ever got 100% on. OK maybe the idiot test.
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 04:30 PM
|
#19
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
|
I guess everybody here knows my retirement planning was pretty conservative and involved belt and suspenders and more.
I required 100%, but withdraw considerably less than that because it makes me happiest to do so. Each to his/her own.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-12-2012, 04:58 PM
|
#20
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 225
|
I think for us we would pull the plug at a lower percentage than most. We've always been self-employed as "slashers" (as the NY Times calls us) - graphic design/writers/ websites/consultants/artists/etc. If we pulled the plug a little early and the first few years saw a harsh recession, we could take on some freelance work to bump up our nest egg again to where we felt safe. We also will have a paid off house at 70 that we do a reverse mortgage on (no kids, don't need to leave anything to heirs) in case of another mishap.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|