Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Lowest Firecalc success rate knowingly/willfully ever attempted?
Old 03-12-2012, 10:35 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
Lowest Firecalc success rate knowingly/willfully ever attempted?

I wonder what it is?

I am not trying to out anybody. And I am not talking about someone that was "retired involuntarily by the man".

I am more wondering about someone that knowingly and carefully evaluated the options and said: "Firecalc says 35%....I'm jumpin' in!"

(I am also not talking about Methuselah either: "Oh dear, I am SURE to run out of money on my 126th birthday!")
LRDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-12-2012, 10:38 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
LRDave, you'll have to wait until their shift at Walmart ends to get a reply.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 11:09 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustward's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,684
You might take a step back and ask something along the lines of "Has anybody made the decision to pull the plug based on FireCalc results alone, with no other input?".
Rustward is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 11:10 AM   #4
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
I didn't even ask FIRECalc before I pulled the plug.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 11:34 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Onward's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,934
As I recall I was at 87% success to age 90. FIRECalc was a major factor in my decision to bail.
__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
Onward is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:18 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
My thread topic is not really getting to the heart of my question...... Let me try this:

Keeping the other inputs as constant as makes sense -

Target ER year........ FireCalc score is 87% at age 90 (to use Onward's values above)
Target ER year minus 1.......FireCalc score is 84% at age 90 (a made-up value)

I am not saying just using FireCalc. Given the many analytical tools that are out there, assuming you have a spending target you are comfortable with, etc.

What is the risk value you would trade for an additional younger year of retirement?

I KNOW this is a very individual question. And it is philosophical, not financial.
LRDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:31 PM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 945
I don't think I would do it, even if my circumstances were different. Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
modhatter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:35 PM   #8
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:47 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
I was looking for more than 100%, but I always keep in mind what Dr. William Bernstein noted in his excellent Retirement Calculator from Hell series, and I am sure it's true....
Quote:
A wildly optimistic historian might give us another few centuries of economic, political, and military continuity. Back-of-the-envelope, that’s about an 80% survival rate over the next 40 years. Thus, any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless.
History will probably get in the way...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:57 PM   #10
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,520
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I was looking for more than 100%, but I always keep in mind what Dr. William Bernstein noted in his excellent Retirement Calculator from Hell series, and I am sure it's true....History will probably get in the way...
Even though I was not aware of FIRECalc when I took the step I had read some of William Bernstein's writing, and it did influence me.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 12:58 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
LRDave, isn't that like asking what FIRECalc probability of success was acceptable to each of us? For some, nothing less than 100%, for others, maybe 80% (my case). Others maybe even less.
^^^Yes - that is the essence of the question. ^^^^^

I am just sorting through my feelings, above and beyond the finances and math.

Isn't ER year minus 1 about as golden as you can get in this game? The only thing being better is ER year minus 2..... and so on.
LRDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 01:10 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by LRDave View Post
^^^Yes - that is the essence of the question. ^^^^^

I am just sorting through my feelings, above and beyond the finances and math.
No harm in asking, but I doubt (hope) that anyones decision to retire hinged significantly on their FIRECALC probability of success. It's just another tool to confirm you're in the probability ballpark, and a backward looking tool at that. You need a saw to build a house, along with many other tools. FIRECALC is a saw, albeit a good one.

And as you note, it's not simply finances and math. In my view, the $ are the simple (but not easy) part. It's the emotional, activity, etc. transition that's difficult for many...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 01:12 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
I would poll Uncle Mick on this one. It sounds like his life story. He got a lemon and made lemonade.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 01:35 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
Although FIRECalc couldn't model my scenario exactly, I'm pretty sure it was saying about 75% for as close as I could come. That felt pretty decent with other margins of safety and spending flexibility I had. Plus I use a cash strategy of raising cash when my portfolio is above expectations and reinvesting it in bear markets, that hopefully smooths things out a bit.
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 03:37 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
What if, for example, you put your life on hold, and saved and saved, so that FireCalc gives you a 100 percent sucess rate...

And then the Ebola fungus kills nearly everyone (including you). Or a meteor slams into the earth plunging the world into fire and darkness ? or an Alien invasion (from outer space) takes place.

Don't you just hate it when that happens ? Ad dontcha just wish you had maxed out those credit cards ?
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 03:46 PM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Tequesta
Posts: 323
What MasterBlaster said. There are no guarantees out there. I'm trying to balance the very real liklihood of having a shorter than 30 year retirement with the really scary prospect of either running out of money or eating cat food in my golden years. It's a tough balance. Part of me wants to get out while the getting is good and part of me keeps saying "you don't have quite enough". And just when it gets close....
67walkon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 04:03 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: seattle
Posts: 646
Quote:
Originally Posted by modhatter View Post
I don't think I would do it, even if my circumstances were different. Maybe, if someone would please tell me the exact age I am going to die, I would.
When you talk to that someone, ask them to provide the correct year-by-year future values for: inflation, T-bonds, S&P 500, and anything else hard to impossible that retirement calculators crunch on, please...
bld999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 04:14 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
grasshopper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,459
I think retirement calculators were the only thing I ever got 100% on. OK maybe the idiot test.
grasshopper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 04:30 PM   #19
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
I guess everybody here knows my retirement planning was pretty conservative and involved belt and suspenders and more.

I required 100%, but withdraw considerably less than that because it makes me happiest to do so. Each to his/her own.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2012, 04:58 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 225
I think for us we would pull the plug at a lower percentage than most. We've always been self-employed as "slashers" (as the NY Times calls us) - graphic design/writers/ websites/consultants/artists/etc. If we pulled the plug a little early and the first few years saw a harsh recession, we could take on some freelance work to bump up our nest egg again to where we felt safe. We also will have a paid off house at 70 that we do a reverse mortgage on (no kids, don't need to leave anything to heirs) in case of another mishap.
PaddyMac is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Anxiety of Success ShortInSeattle Young Dreamers 51 03-26-2012 12:25 PM
has anyone ever taken a job for less? tulak Young Dreamers 49 03-19-2012 06:17 AM
Firecalc: Allowing for Lower Future Income Amethyst FIRE and Money 2 03-09-2012 05:20 PM
Poll: Did you ever own/wear a leisure suit (be honest)? Midpack Other topics 67 03-07-2012 06:12 PM
Anyone ever try "MarketRiders"? panacea FIRE and Money 8 03-01-2012 10:04 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:01 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.