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Macroeconomists! Where does the difference "go" from currency to currency?
Old 01-13-2008, 08:55 PM   #1
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Macroeconomists! Where does the difference "go" from currency to currency?

In Sept. '04, ShokWaveRider wrote this:
Quote:
How Low Will The GreenBack Go
The Greenback is really hurting me. Is anyone else suffering? Livinig abroard most of the time is getting more and more expensive. When I moved to Canada the Dollar was 1.55 CAN now is it 1.28, on $1m that equates to $270k loss. That is a house in my books. I do not even want to think about the Euro rates.

Will The Government ever stop spending more than they take in?? Or do we simply get poorer and poorer?

At this rate, the USA is going to go from one of the richest countries to one of the poorest. DOESN'T any one care? Or is all people vote for these days to do with Abortion, the ability to buy assault weapons, Who served under whom in the military 30 years ago and where, or other equally economically useless topics.
http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...55&postcount=1


I certainly don't mean to whine.. but yeah, I'm "suffering". I wasn't 3+ years ago.. but I am getting to be concerned now.

I searched the forum for currency exchange rates and most all the discussions here I could quickly find were either short-term-based.. or assumed that the dollar would fluctuate within a modest range up/down, say, 10%.. (Billy/Akaisha- see same thread above -in no way giving them any grief nor any implication that I may have relied on that figure.. just an example of a 'reasonable guess'.).

I have tried to be sanguine (10% don't bother me none) but have begun to experience a more sharply-different reality living on dollars in the euro zone. I'd rather not continue paying (aside from high energy costs which are and were a given) $2.75/lb. for a generic whole chicken vs. 89 cents/lb., or $3.50 for 2 lightbulbs (in the US 4 similar for the 1/2 the price).. just to pick one "local" and one "made in China"-type basic item.

In the past, I'd consoled myself on two fronts: the (good) generally higher 'earning power' of the US market (a chimera?), and the (bad) higher complications, fees/bank expenses, and taxes of investing directly overseas, both reasons for which I never -stupidly, in hindsight- exchanged $ for € at the outset of this adventure. 2003-2006, it has been an OK trade-off.. but the chickens are coming home to roost, and exchanging dollars for euros is now more unpleasant a prospect than ever. (When you see a $50-75 random deduction on your EU-bank balance that says nothing more than "forfeit".. and that is NORMAL.. you may understand. When you pay online and get charged the same rate as an in-person teller money-order .. plus other crazy fees.. you do try to avoid the Italian banks or really ANY EU bank as much as you can help it.). My mistake. Forest for the trees and 20/20 hindsight.

In the context of this highly personal scenario, I don't expect anyone to have any brilliant advice.. BUT.. I want to understand currency movements better. Not fluctuations.. movements.

What I want to know from the geniuses here is WHAT happens to the "lost" money/value.. and will it always be "lost"? To the extent that it had been "there" (I understand this is not a given).. is it possible that it may just disappear? Does anyone have a good enough grasp of macroeconomics and economic history to guide me succinctly?

I break it down into two phases. I kinda get what happens in Phase I.
I wanna know what happens beyond that.

Phase I: a country is seen to have too much debt or other strife or instability or politically bad business climate --whatever. Its interest rates may be low, so its funds are less desireable to other countries and large corporate investors. The companies that make up this country's market may or may not be viable, and may even have significant increases in local-currency profitability and value, but their global worth goes down as the home country currency tanks. What profit they realize is now devalued.

Phase II: once this has been a steady state for a while.. does the discrepancy ever get made up, in part or in full? I'm familiar with some of the PPP (purchasing power parity) ideas featured in The Economist, for example, with their Big Mac index (which in Feb. '07 showed the euro 'overvalued' at about 20%.. this can only be much higher now: a revisiting in July pegged the euro Big Mac at +22%.

Not buying any Big Macs, I would personally rate basic foods and goods (ex. energy) at +50%-+100% of US prices currently, and more if you count white goods and clothing and other durables which can be 200-300%). I can understand the impact of higher energy costs in the rest of the chain, but these were as proportionally high in Italy in '04 as they are now. If anything, energy prices have NOT seen as sharp hikes recently as in the US (again the dollar valuation//devaluation at work, I imagine) so that portion should be less, not be the driving price-augmentation force.

We have all heard the histories of rampaging inflation in Germany and Argentina, with things out-of-control. What happened AFTER (ok...in Germany we kinda know).. but really, who wins and who loses in an out-measured peacetime inflation or hyper-inflation and its aftermath?

Even looking at the current day, Argentina's inflation rate is 9-10%. Its growth rate is similar. So is "inflation" there bad? good? normal? Where does the inflation "go" w/r/t the rest of the world? And, more important, does it ever "come back"? If someone invests in an Argentine company and gets 10% yield, paid out in dollars.. is that conceivably a loss in dollar terms (as the cycle comes 'round)? If the PPP is -22% does that mean the Argentine company has to realize a 30+% profit? This sounds like a dumb question, and I apologize!


I understand that the "yields" in emerging markets are, in many significant repects, only a reflection of the relative weakness or strength of the dollar (the question is, how much?). Is the friction/traction consumed in this ever really to be 'gained' (or only lost)?

In Sept. '04 (the time of ShokWaveRider's post) I had $600,000 USD. Now I have $1.2million USD. This is invested roughly 45% int'l. stocks, 35% US stocks (many w/int'l. market or exposure), 12% US bonds.. plus other crumbs. Which sounds great. SHOULD sound great. ...But a raw whole chicken costs me 300% more (not 200% more) than in the US today, so I am wondering HOW effectively I have LOST ground of 30-40% over 3-4 years (not even counting basic inflation) in spite of a nominal double-digit gain each year over that time.. and WHY... and whether it may be recuperated or whether it is lost to the ages. Do these things return to some 'norm' .. or do they 'stick', with the disparities lost/assimilated forever?

It's easy to talk of short-term currency fluctuations in the order of ±10%. In exchange rate terms.. I'm 'only' experiencing a currency "fluctuation" of the difference between $1.20 in 2004 and $1.50-almost now. I am not smart or dedicated enough to apply myself to how that reflects itself in PPP. What I have been EXPERIENCING appears coincidentally to be the sum of these two: the PPP at 20+% extra.. and the base exchange rate at 20%+ extra. Which leaves me with a tasty-sounding +100% increase over 4 years in dollar-denominated investments.. but a precipitous decline in real, purchasing, terms. Is this what Americans, in part, are facing? In the US, there is at least a buffer provided by goods purchased internally (the same or only proportionally more expensive according to US inflation) vs. imports (more expensive as the dollar continues its free-fall). To me, everything is as if it were a US "import" yet far worse.

Any thoughts? Thanks for bearing with me!

Again, I'm just a layperson with no econ. background so any/all insights welcome.
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Old 01-13-2008, 10:27 PM   #2
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50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar | Currency Trading.net
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Old 01-13-2008, 10:43 PM   #3
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I do think it is becoming a bigger concern this election season. I haven't heard as much about abortion, gay marriage, or other nonsense deflecting from real issues. I have heard a lot about the cost of the war, medicare and social security, so I think something is bound to start changing for the better.

I read recently that the US's AAA-debt rating is in jeopardy. We were given this rating in 1917, if I remember correctly.

I predict a period of protectionism when things get very bad. I am not sure what will trigger this "very bad" event, but it will finally be a wakeup call. It might be mortgage rates resetting at 10%, massive job constriction, or shortages of natural resources due to our weakened currency, but it will come.
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Old 01-14-2008, 04:11 AM   #4
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The good news is there is a self correcting mechanism to most curreny flucuations.

As the dollar has become cheaper, the price of imported goods in the US because more expensive thus reducing the demand for them. Conversely, the price of US produced goods (Microsoft, Boeing, GE) become more competitive with Europe and Chinese goods and export become larger. Both of factors increase the demand of dollars to pay for US produce goods and also decrease the demand for Euro or Yuan to pay for European/Chinese good. The dollars drop will stop and eventually swing back.

On the other hand changes in the overall economy (e.g slowing or possibly worse) and central banks actions such as dropping interest rates will generally weakening the dollar.

When the pendulum will swing back and where the dollar will ultimate settle on are will beyond my 25 year old minor in economics.

I will say that I think the raising chicken price is you being hit with a triple whammy; a weak dollar, raising food prices as result of Ethanol, a higher quality diet (more chicken, and grains) in China, and I belief decrease supply in the EU due to pressure to reduce Ag subsidies.
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Old 01-14-2008, 07:14 AM   #5
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You might get a pretty good grasp of the whole picture if you were to get a PhD in economics...maybe. I have read a few things lately that predict a reversal of this trend $ vs Euro starting in the summer. Unfortunately it doesn't help me much since DD will be studying in UK THIS semester.

Interest rates seem to drive this. But this doesn't help much since a host of things drive interest rates. I believe the EU has some pretty tight rules concerning inflation and interest rates that make changes difficult due to the number of countries involved. Our money guys have been urging UK & EU money guys to lower rates ever since this lowering $ value thing began with little success. I think they get a chuckle out us watching us anguish in financial misery. When you figure it out, you can start a post to explain it to the rest of us.
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Old 01-14-2008, 09:28 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by tightasadrum View Post
You might get a pretty good grasp of the whole picture if you were to get a PhD in economics...maybe. I have read a few things lately that predict a reversal of this trend $ vs Euro starting in the summer. Unfortunately it doesn't help me much since DD will be studying in UK THIS semester.

Interest rates seem to drive this. But this doesn't help much since a host of things drive interest rates. I believe the EU has some pretty tight rules concerning inflation and interest rates that make changes difficult due to the number of countries involved. Our money guys have been urging UK & EU money guys to lower rates ever since this lowering $ value thing began with little success. I think they get a chuckle out us watching us anguish in financial misery. When you figure it out, you can start a post to explain it to the rest of us.
Well,for now the EU is content to let us languish with the dollar. Just imagine if England would have agreed to join the EU.........

However, things are fluid and can change. If the US chooses to keep lowering rates, it has a ripple effect overseas, and the Central EU may have to follow suit.
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Old 01-14-2008, 10:27 AM   #7
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Well, I've been reading The Economist for 30 years now and I know the answer. The answer is ....42.

Exchange rates do change for the short and long term based on a lot of factors. But what you want to know to take advantage os inappropriate rates (or avoid too expensive ones) is to have an idea of what they 'should' be at any time.
Try the Big Mac Index:

Markets & Data | Big Mac Index | Economist.com
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Old 01-14-2008, 10:47 AM   #8
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The difference goes where the missing socks in the washer go, I think.
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Old 01-14-2008, 11:22 AM   #9
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The difference goes where the missing socks in the washer go, I think.
Where's CFB (ding! ding! ding!)
and what IS IT with those socks? I have a basket of orphaned socks that I keep around, waiting.. waiting.. I should put date labels on them so I know when to give up hope, as some of them have been in the basket for a couple years.

twaddle, thanks; that was a good link with a very extensive list of "reasons" for currency fluctuations. I guess what I'm wondering, though, is if the dollar does "swing back".. where does it swing back TO?

it's kinda like those thermodynamics questions that I could never calculate in college.. is it a perfect closed system where value (energy/mass) is retained --where everything is priced in and taken into account, like in theory the stock market is-- or is something significant "lost" in the long-term movements to heat, friction, or whatever the economic equivalent is? I'm more worried about the long-term than the short term.

The Big Mac index is a good idea, but for me the Big Mac is a better "deal" exchange-wise than the raw whole chicken and many other staples. I'm not sure how faithfully the economics of McDonald's mirror the economics of a whole country or currency zone. Now if only there were a McDonald's near me..!
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Old 01-14-2008, 11:27 AM   #10
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Some people get confused when it comes to currency... so just make it "widgets"...

Now, widgets have a 'value' based on how many there are and how hard it is to produce them... well, you can see here that when it is currency, it is easy to produce them if they wish...

So, if a gvmt decides to limit the amount of widgets it will let into the market, then the market says you need Y # of widgets for X worth of gold, or silver, or oil, or wine or cars etc. etc...

Now.. each country makes their own widgets... so if you say it is $10 and I don't have $10, but can print some up... well, here ya go.. here is my $10... but now there are more widgets (dollars) in the market and the widget is worth less... continue this for awhile and there are many more dollars in the market than what people want to deal with.. people stop wanting to take your widgets because they want THEIR widgets so they can buy stuff locally.. and nobody wants to buy YOUR widgets at a 'good price'... so your widgets go down in value COMPARED to their widgets...

So a few days later.. someone offers Y times 1.03% to buy the X of everything... and then later, 1.1% and so forth... nothing is 'lost' except your ability to buy X...

Eventually your country will have to 'fix' the problem of to many widgets out in the market which can lead to a recession.. but fix it or you got inflation or hyper inflation...
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Old 01-14-2008, 01:35 PM   #11
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ladelfina,

As others have said, it's complicated. When I was taking my global econ class for my MBA, I think I got a taste of all the factors and forces involved, but I can't run through them all and then identify how one currency "ought" to move against another or how any random investor (such as myself) should behave.

At the end of the day, exchange rates are just the price of money, and the price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is, at least in the US, managed by the government, and as I've learned elsewhere, they try to manage the money supply to have low, stable, inflation (maybe 1-2% annually), as measured by the core CPI. The demand for money is more complicated; demand for any currency will depend on international trade factors -- if John Deere sells a tractor to China, ultimately they want to get paid in dollars, which means the Chinese buyer has to get those dollars to buy the tractor -- as well as the relative attractiveness of US interest rates, the stability of the dollar itself, and maybe to a lesser extent currency hedging done by the various governments and international business firms.

Currency fluctuations and movements, as you point out, can result in lost value, but if you think of it in terms of the price of money, it's really no different than the store raising the price of a can of peaches from $1 to $1.10. Do you lose value in that case? Yup, you can't buy as many peaches with your dollars. Will it ever go the other way? That depends on the future relationship between the supply and demand of dollars and peaches. It's the same with dollars and euros; the only difference in your case is that you can't buy peaches with dollars where you live, so you have two different factors, as you've pointed out.

I don't know enough of economics history to know how to determine whether or not the change in value of a currency is temporary or permanent. There are a few cases I know of where currencies have never recovered, most notably the German currency during the Weimar Republic. You might also want to read the wikipedia article on hyperinflation.

Hope this helps a little.

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Old 01-14-2008, 02:45 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ladelfina View Post
I guess what I'm wondering, though, is if the dollar does "swing back".. where does it swing back TO?
I don't want to appear glib, but the answer is really that close to anything can happen. Recent history is full of currencies with so many zeros behind them you get dizzy. The old Italian lira is a perfect example, as is the history of the Argentine Peso, and the German old Mark (pre-Konrad Adenauer.)

Most likely for a still reasonably effective country like the US is that the Euro and the dollar are on a sort of loose teeter-totter. The USD is no great shakes, but neither is the Euro. So sometime there will be at least a partial reversal in the ratio. When or how much who knows. As for where does the money go, there are huge trading flows in currencies. The money lost by someone who is long the USD is made by someone who is short the USD. Buying power lost by USD denominated consumers is gained by Euro denominated consumers, as they compete to buy internationally traded goods like oil and commodities, to travel, to buy 2nd homes, etc.

Very little of this kind of thing can be accurately timed. Best is to buy currencies in going concern countries when they are cheap; sell any not needed for transactions when they seem dear. None of them are intrinsically worth anything.

But IMO no way will the European Community permanently eclipse the US. You are there; you know how clueless they are.

Otoh not so sure about Asia.

Ha
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Old 01-14-2008, 05:24 PM   #13
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ShockWaveRider must really be feeling it now, wherever he is??

The loonie and $US have been basically at par for the last few months.

On his $1.55 to $1.00 is a big haircut.

You were way overvalued and we were way undervalued according to Big Mac.
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Old 01-15-2008, 09:23 AM   #14
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It's the same with dollars and euros; the only difference in your case is that you can't buy peaches with dollars where you live, so you have two different factors, as you've pointed out.
mmm but what is interesting is that I DO have "peaches" (US and international companies that have some non-zero intrinsic value on any scale you care to choose).. only they happen to be peaches arbitrarily denominated in dollars. These stocks ARE things with intrinsic worth.. just calculated according to systems like the dollar, euro, or peso.. that have none.

At one point I tried to track the progress of a particular foreign stock I own, both as an ADR and according to the parent country's home market. There were divergences that couldn't be explained by currency movement alone (but it made my head hurt so much I didn't really pursue it beyond the superficial).

I get disheartened when we are not just talking about a widget or a peach.. but basing hard decisions not on what a widget or peach IS.. but people's PERCEPTIONS of the widget/peach.. and worse, people's perceptions of THOSE perceptions and their perceptions of other people's perceptions.. and other people's perceptions of our perceptions of their perceptions.. etc., etc.


With the US stock market.. most offerings are widely examined and we assume a measure of efficiency in the assessment of their value. Given other countries' stock that no-one in the US follows -who's to say?. It's apparently a crap shoot since no-one in the US universe cares what WMMVY or Samsung or Adidas is doing, and since I'm not fluent in Spanish, Korean, or German I am unlikely to have any kind of handle on it.

Like with the Big Mac.. what I've experienced is that it is possible to have a stock that goes up 10% in its home market.. but if the dollar drops 20% w/r/t the home currency, my dollar "gain" is less than 30%.. so I effectively lose. Why? In theory this same disconnect could work to my advantage, but I have a (paranoid?) suspicion that a little bit more underlying "value" is lost than created in these shuffles. I would be very interested to see what the numbers say, and would attempt to analyse it if I felt I had the appropriate background chops and tools.

haha, I'm heartened by your assessment that the dollar and Euro have mature enough economies to not go off the rails w/r/t one another.. but I still am queasy to think of the ups and downs I'm going to randomly be subject to based on little more than "perceptions". Despite the US's strengths, I see the world shifting away from the US as the be-all end-all economic engine.. (and I saw this way too late. Oh, if I had only moved everything to euros in 1999...). As it is, I just bring money over as needed.. I've been "too smart" to try and time the currency markets!!!


Of course in 1999.. the euro looked 'expensive' at $1.15, since it had been climbing upward from $.85!!

Though I never turn to the Huffington Post for financial information.. in searching for a long-term chart I came across this:

Quote:
The rise of the Euro is another reason for the dollar's decline. The Euro has been around for about 10 years now. Over that time, it has become a clear competitor with the dollar as an international currency. Central banks around the world are now adding euros to their reserves at the expense of the dollar. From the central banks perspective, this is sound risk management policy. Having a pool of diverse currencies limits the negative impact of one currency's devaluation from lowering the overall value of a central banks currency reserves. In addition, as central banks have diversified into euros they have sold dollars. This has lowered the dollars value, making euros more attractive. In other words, diversification from the dollar to euros has created something like a negative feedback loop that negatively impacts the dollar's overall value.
Hale "Bonddad" Stewart: An Explanation of the Dollar's 5-year Drop - Business on The Huffington Post

This would seem to argue that just the euro's sheer existence, high, low, or medium as it may be.. has to some extent 'captured the flag' .. and implies that a certain chunk of the dollar's "lost value" will never be recovered. Who knew!? Going by this.. it's as though there had been, in the world, only peaches and kumquats and gooseberries, with peaches being the most popular. Then someone invents an apple, which takes more away from the peach market than the kumquat/gooseberry market. With the apple on the scene, the peach market can never recover its entire previous market share, OR its entire previous value.

Is this too pessimistic?

Since I can only buy apples (ooooo another sore point; I should have said "cherries") WITH PEACHES.. it doesn't matter if I want to buy apples or peaches or kumquats from that point on.. I'm still hosed.
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Old 01-15-2008, 09:30 AM   #15
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The dollar has been through "rough times" before. If China quits buying Treasuries, it will be painful for us for awhile.........

The Euro is here to stay, but I think it is premature to say the USD is "dead"...........
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