Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 05:36 AM   #41
Full time employment: Posting here.
DRiP Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 546
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Same here. Don't you hate it when you google your name and some inane usenet post from 1985 pops up?

What I don't get about the dot-com bubble is how quickly people stopped licking their wounds and got right back on the same momentum ride. GOOG has a market cap of $142B. Boeing has a market cap of $70B. How could this happen again so soon after a major crash? What ever happened to fear?
I was afraid it is heresy to say it, but that was exactly what I was thinking. Google, Yahoo and other internet plays have a valuation system that I sure the heck don't understand, so unless and until I did, I would never hold those individual stocks, no matter how high the annual return, even if somehow sustained for years. Call me a stick in the mud....
__________________

__________________
DRiP Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 11:18 AM   #42
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,725
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Re: Market Bubble

Never owned a dotcom stock but I did get burned by the tech stock meltdown which followed. Are we approaching another major correction?
__________________

__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 11:57 AM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
Ding ding right answer.
Hey, if you're going to do that, do it right!

Quote:
I figured that betting Mike was smarter than Andy Grove, about making money wasn't a good bet.
Anyone who'd take a TA job with senior staff has highly questionable decision making skills, so good call!

Wabs point about market cap comparisons is spot on. I used to look at some of this POS internet companies with market caps greater than most large stalwart businesses and ask myself which one I'd rather own. Mark Cuban and Steve Case figured it out.

I'm still trying to figure out Google, but I guess if they leverage their cash position into offering free wireless broadband through their portal and get everyone living in or near a major metropolitan area passing through their portal, using their Word/Excel/etc replacement apps, and pasting them with advertising...that model compared with the already known stat that people prefer interactive on-line experiences to television...well...they could end up swooping most of microsofts money and all the tv networks advertising streams.

That'd be worth something.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 12:00 PM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: North Bay
Posts: 1,026
Re: Market Bubble

I held a few Janus funds that collapsed with the tech bust, but they weren't too big a part of my overall portfolio. The tech bubble seemed surreal to me from beginning to end, so I just stayed away. I've had two losing quarters in the past 12 years, and neither of them were during the tech bust.
__________________
scrinch is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 12:26 PM   #45
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 5,459
Re: Market Bubble

How did the market crash impact you and what philosophy did you gain from it ?

There was a market crash? We were busy buying sad little houses and multi units and were up to our elbows in clearing away debris, replacing plumbing, rebuilding, and both working ill-paying sub $20k/year jobs so we could dump our LWBYM money into down payments and drywall mud. Seems like I do remember people making money for nothing as we were working yet another weekend. Result is I don't know doodly about investing and have started reading and hanging out here and on the diehard's site hoping we can transition out of babysitting our tenants. The cost of divesting is keeping us in RE. Just hate sharing with Uncle Sammy.
__________________
calmloki is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 01:15 PM   #46
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
tryan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,449
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
We were busy buying sad little houses and multi units and were up to our elbows in clearing away debris, replacing plumbing, rebuilding, and both working
Yeah that was me too. Expect I followed Brinkers recomendation with my 401k and pulled 2/3 of the wad out of the market in January 2000.

Then I preached "the sky is falling" to everyone who would listen. Gave my brother and his buddy - a Yahoo sales person and paper millionaire - an earful one evening .... they laughed at me. Then decided to "put my money where my mouth was" and set up a futures account to short QQQ thru Feb 2000. Lost 9k in about 3 weeks (shorting QQQ) and, so, was sitting on the sideline (licking my wounds) when the bottom fell out a month later .

Oh, the Yahoo sales man ... he's waiting tables. Couldn't make this stuff up!
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
tryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 02:45 PM   #47
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Yeah that was me too. Expect I followed Brinkers recomendation with my 401k and pulled 2/3 of the wad out of the market in January 2000.

Then decided to "put my money where my mouth was" and set up a futures account to short QQQ thru Feb 2000. Lost 9k in about 3 weeks (shorting QQQ) and, so, was sitting on the sideline (licking my wounds) when the bottom fell out a month later .
I didn't really profit from the NASDAQ run-up, because I do not have the tech background to understand even vaguely the technology. I did own some Dell, but thought it was just store, so I sold way too early.

I felt maximum insanity had been reached in the fall of 1999, so I started buying QQQ puts, as well as some puts on Micron, Atmel, etc. These all expired worthless in Jan 2000. I had lost enough that I didn't have the stamina to roll them. When the bottom fell out, I like tryan was no longer aboard.

I would like to say I learned something from this. I still couldn't go long if the situation repeated itself. It seemed nuts then, and it would seem nuts now. I guess I did learn that it is better to hedge moderately, so you can keep it up until the bull is dead. My hope was a huge score, so I was not pacing myself.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-15-2007, 06:22 PM   #48
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,951
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Yeah that was me too. Expect I followed Brinkers recomendation with my 401k and pulled 2/3 of the wad out of the market in January 2000.
Did you also follow Brinker's March '03 buy recommendation?
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-16-2007, 02:10 AM   #49
Recycles dryer sheets
Linney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 262
Re: Market Bubble

I was working in Silicon Valley during the tech boom. Most of my money was in a 401k and reasonably well diversified. I occasionally questioned my investing strategy when co-workers would boast about big money they made on IPOs or leveraged real estate transactions. I too heard the boasts from co-workers about being able to retire with lots of money in only two more years of investing this way.

My 401k survived the bubble, crash and eventual recovery in pretty darn good shape.

What this sequence of events did was to give me a lot more confidence in managing my own investments. It also showed me that I had the emotional fortitude to ride out the market's volitilty.

One other thing I learned: I was planning to sell a bunch of stock options late in 2000 but the stock price was already on a downward trend. I decided to wait until it came back up. It ultimately dropped to only 20% of its former value and has never returned it is former high value. I am once again in a position where I want to exercise options. This time I wrote out a plan for when I would sell and how much I would sell so I can do it analytically instead of emotionally. Seeing the company stock price ticker jump up (or fall) causes me to have too much of an emotional reaction so I learned that I can use a written plan to keep my emotions in check. (btw, I have a written plan for my 401k and other investments these days as well -- just in case I need some self support the next time the market goes wonky)

__________________
Linney is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-16-2007, 07:56 AM   #50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
tryan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,449
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:

I would like to say I learned something from this. I still couldn't go long if the situation repeated itself. It seemed nuts then, and it would seem nuts now. I guess I did learn that it is better to hedge moderately
The one thing I learned ... "If you can't hang with the BIG DOGS, stay under the porch". :

I didn't have the kaunas to watch thousands of $$ evaporate in a couple hours.

Quote:
Did you also follow Brinker's March '03 buy recommendation?
Yup ... second smartest thing I did with my 401k.
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
tryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-16-2007, 09:02 PM   #51
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,951
Re: Market Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
The one thing I learned ... "If you can't hang with the BIG DOGS, stay under the porch". :
Well Dang!.......I thought you could just stay ON the porch..........didn't realize ya had to stay UNDER it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan

Yup ... second smartest thing I did with my 401k.
Me too! 8)Waiting to see if he'll have any guidance now that S&P is ~1450.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market Bubble
Old 02-16-2007, 10:19 PM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Market Bubble

Fair warning: broken clocks are right twice a day...
__________________

__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What Real Estate Bubble? Art FIRE and Money 76 11-09-2006 03:33 PM
Another Bear Market Looming? Rosalita FIRE and Money 74 07-14-2006 10:45 AM
Future of stock market jimhcom FIRE and Money 45 07-13-2005 04:19 PM
Market and public debt Marshac Other topics 6 08-30-2004 07:05 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:23 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.