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Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 06:26 AM   #1
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Market Experts

I'll have to admit that since I retired a year ago I spend way too much time watching financial CNBC network. Actually I have it on in the background while I'm on my computer, sort of a retiree version of multi-tasking. One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the difference in opinions as to which way the market is heading in the short, mid or long term. I am convinced the so called experts may have better tools to analyze market metrics but in reality they are as clueless as the rest of us. Was told a long time ago the market is driven by fear and greed. I guess that is one truism that never changes.


What say you ?
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 06:43 AM   #2
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne

What say you ?
Turn off the TV.

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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 06:59 AM   #3
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
I'll have to admit that since I retired a year ago I spend way too much time watching financial CNBC netw*rk. Actually I have it on in the background while I'm on my computer, sort of a retiree version of multi-tasking. One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the difference in opinions as to which way the market is heading in the short, mid or long term. I am convinced the so called experts may have better tools to analyze market metrics but in reality they are as clueless as the rest of us. Was told a long time ago the market is driven by fear and greed. I guess that is one truism that never changes.


What say you ?
Take that TV out to the back yard, set it up on a stool and with bat in hand take your best home run swing at it.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 08:19 AM   #4
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Re: Market Experts

CNBC was more fun when I tuned in while working at home. Now that I'm retired, it has lost its appeal.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 08:29 AM   #5
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Was told a long time ago the market is driven by fear and greed. I guess that is one truism that never changes.
Not just the stock markets?
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:05 AM   #6
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Re: Market Experts

I always thought those shows would be much more interesting if they made the "experts" return after a couple weeks or months and evauate their predictions.

I'm guessing a lot fewer people would want to be guests.

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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:29 AM   #7
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Actually I have it on in the background while I'm on my computer, sort of a retiree version of multi-tasking.

What say you ?
Hah - multi-tasking?!? Don't delude yourself. Having CNBC on in the background while you are doing anything is lowering your quality of life.

You've already figured out it's worthless.

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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:39 AM   #8
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Re: Market Experts

Turn it off is correct. You might be convinced by the repetitive mantras to do something stupid.

They know less than anyone does. Way less. I've seen the same reasons and rationales used to describe opposite movements and effects, just a week or two apart.

Besides, I hate, hate, hate the new CNBC format. Too many whizzy graphics, spinning graphs, and do we REALLY need to see the thousandths of a second spinning like a slot machine on all the graphs? Does knowing the exact time to the thousandth of a second help? :P

But Gabe likes looking at Jill Clayman. I should warn him in advance about redheads.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:50 AM   #9
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Re: Market Experts

I'd take Becky Quick over Liz Clayman any day

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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:53 AM   #10
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
I've seen the same reasons and rationales used to describe opposite movements and effects, just a week or two apart.
Hah! - I've seen the same reasons and rationales used to describe opposite movements and effects the very next day! Ridiculous!

People pull "reasons" out of a hat - totally random.

Audrey
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 11:03 AM   #11
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Re: Market Experts

I won't have a chance to see it when I retire as I will be on the golf course. Of course I will probably be home in time to watch KRAMERRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just kidding, he drives me nuts.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 02:24 PM   #12
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by saluki9
I'd take Becky Quick over Liz Clayman any day

I did too, but then again I learned my lesson about redheads in my 20's.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 02:40 PM   #13
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
I did too, but then again I learned my lesson about redheads in my 20's.
Are you sure that you studied a sufficiently widespread sample population for a long enough duration?
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 03:32 PM   #14
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Re: Market Experts

Three.

It turned out two of them were married (a fact they didnt disclose until it was way too late to be helpful) and one caused minor but persistent physical damage to my spine. Which wasnt so bad at the time.

Oh yeah, and one of the married ones tried to stab me in my sleep. Because she thought I might be cheating on her. See back to the 'married' part for the irony.

I think that was a good enough sample size.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 03:40 PM   #15
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Re: Market Experts

Nobody knows what the market will do except the market. There is an old saying "The market will do what the market will do"
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 03:46 PM   #16
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Re: Market Experts

I like the Bernstein analogy of the guy walking his dog from home to the park. The dog runs back and forth, pretty much at random.

Market watchers and timers try to predict/explain the dogs movement. Indexers know the guy is going to end up at the park eventually.

I'll add to that by saying that occasionally the dog breaks its leash. Then all bets are off.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 07:09 PM   #17
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
I'll have to admit that since I retired a year ago I spend way too much time watching financial CNBC network. Actually I have it on in the background while I'm on my computer, sort of a retiree version of multi-tasking. One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the difference in opinions as to which way the market is heading in the short, mid or long term. I am convinced the so called experts may have better tools to analyze market metrics but in reality they are as clueless as the rest of us. Was told a long time ago the market is driven by fear and greed. I guess that is one truism that never changes.


What say you ?
I watch the market like you, in the background, while doing other things on my computer.* *I find it facinating, and love to try and predict it (not without testing though).* *I keep hoping I'll find some logic that I can exploit (relatively safely) to make short term money, but nothing has proved out in quite a while.* *As for the experts, they're interesting to me, as they are telling me their logic as to why the market is or is going to do something.* I like hearing their ideas, but find their conclusions are no better than mine.*
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 08:56 PM   #18
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Re: Market Experts

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny on Today at 10:39:06 AM
I've seen the same reasons and rationales used to describe opposite movements and effects, just a week or two apart.
Hah! - I've seen the same reasons and rationales used to describe opposite movements and effects the very next day!

How about within a few hours:
Quote:
Posted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:30 pm Post subject: Report makes stocks go up. No, down.

Two headlines, currently on the same page of
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/


Stocks smile on weak jobs report - at CNNMoney.com - Fri 9:47 am ET
Stocks gained early Friday after a jobs report came in far weaker than expected, raising hopes the Fed will ease off it's interest-rate hiking campaign.


Jobs report no clear guidance - CNNMoney.com - 47 minutes ago
Stocks turned lower early Friday afternoon, after a mixed morning as traders began to fret over a jobs report that fell far short of estimates.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-07-2006, 10:15 PM   #19
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Re: Market Experts

Listening to too much CNBC drives me nuts.. and the sound on background...!! After a while, I'd rather see other things such as Discovery, Nat Geo .. equally if not better knowledgeable.

I do look forward to see it everyday.

And market experts?? They too can't predict anything, like us.
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Re: Market Experts
Old 06-08-2006, 11:35 AM   #20
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Re: Market Experts

For what its worth, one of the simpler and reasonably accurate tools for measuring (at least recent) long term downtrends is still looking a-ok. The S&P 500 breaking its 200 day moving average for 5 straight trading days is supposed to be a 'sell' signal, while breaking to the upside for 5 straight days is a 'buy'. We keep bouncing off of the 200 day MA, although we did breach it during the trading day today for the first time in a while.

This is Cute Fuzzy Nacho Bunny for ER-CNBC...out!
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