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Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 11:07 AM   #1
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Market Forcast 2007

I had a discussion with a young fellow who works at Western Asset Management, one of the 3 biggest institutional asset managing companies. They are about the size of PIMCO. In a general discussion he said his folks expect 1) there will not be a deep recession, only a ‘soft landing’, 2) oil will cost more next year than this year, and 3) the Fed will not lower the prime rate. Also said it is not a good time for individuals to own bonds although institutions may want to. Just general stuff, not advice on my portfolio but these folks are managing $Bs with this general orientation. Oh yeah, you may want to follow what Bill Gross (of PIMCO) does but pay no attention to what he says.

I was disappointed, I expect to retire in the next year or so and was actually looking to have a recession now so I could retire after it. A long, slow decline is worse, to me, than a short, sharp one. The guy knows the limits on forcasting but he manages a lot of money successfully so its not an opinion I would lightly dismiss.
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 11:20 AM   #2
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Thanks for the info yakers , now if I may ask, who has a market forcast for 2007 in Canada?

Let er rip!
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 11:34 AM   #3
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by My Dream
Thanks for the info yakers , now if I may ask, who has a market forcast for 2007 in Canada?

Let er rip!
OK, this coming spring should have a fine flowery nose with a robust and earthy mid-summer note striking the upper palate. It should have a smooth metallic finish. I give it a 10% up rating.

As you can plainly see that glass on the left is NOT half empty of whiskey but, rather, half filled with a pleasant, mellow white wine. :
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 11:38 AM   #4
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

I thought the paramaters of FIRECALC included, on a historical basis, retiring/starting to withdraw funds at the worst possible time. If it works on FIRECALC, why wait? The other side of the coin is that while prices may be high, they may not.
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 12:47 PM   #5
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by tio z
If it works on FIRECALC, why wait?
Because I want more than 4%?
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 10:51 PM   #6
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Thanks for the info. I'm betting that the market is heading upward (in a zigzag sort of way) for the next two years. I think alot of it has to do with the presidential cycle. The Republicans are going to try to stay in power. (of course)
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-06-2006, 10:57 PM   #7
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountaintosea
Thanks for the info. I'm betting that the market is heading upward (in a zigzag sort of way) for the next two years.
Agreed. I think the inflows of Boomer retirement funds will buoy the market to new heights. The fund managers have to use that money to buy something, which will drive prices up.
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Re: Market Forcast 2007
Old 11-07-2006, 07:05 AM   #8
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Re: Market Forcast 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers
Because I want more than 4%?

I see nothing wrong with wanting more out of your money. I know........I know.....don't be greedy.
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