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Old 08-07-2007, 07:37 PM   #61
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Ahh Boglehead, owninig the market is what an investor should aim to do -- Total Market Index Fund. He suggests we are often fooled by style/size performance. At least that is my interpretation of his recent interviews.
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Old 08-07-2007, 08:06 PM   #62
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Nah, more like *****, only with a 90% TIP portfolio, instead of 100%...

A little whacky, even for me.
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Old 08-07-2007, 08:14 PM   #63
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Ahh Boglehead, owninig the market is what an investor should aim to do -- Total Market Index Fund. He suggests we are often fooled by style/size performance. At least that is my interpretation of his recent interviews.
Disclaimer, I haven't read his book. But, he strikes me as a permabear that makes other bears look absolutely bullish.

As way of example. From a probability standpoint, there's no indicator that the US couldn't switch to a fascist regime and flip to the Euro. So, plan your portfolioto adequately protect against a potential black swan event like that.
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Old 08-07-2007, 08:17 PM   #64
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Disclaimer, I haven't read his book. But, he strikes me as a permabear that makes other bears look absolutely bullish.
This isn't a disclaimer; it's a disqualification.
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Old 08-07-2007, 08:24 PM   #65
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This isn't a disclaimer; it's a disqualification.
I've read enough about him to feel that I can relegate said book to the bottom of the pile.

edit: Point taken though
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Old 08-07-2007, 09:06 PM   #66
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This book has been marketed as an investment book but that is not honest marketing. On Consuelo's show she introduced him as a former options trader, so I guess he has gone out of the investment management business altogether. It must have been hard to keep clients bumping along at close to a zero return.

The book is really about the limits of knowledge, or what we call knowledge. For me, it was interesting purely in that way. Yet I do think that there may be cautions contained in his evidence that apply to retirement investing.

Ha
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Old 08-07-2007, 09:24 PM   #67
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even the market is playing off oil prices lately since that is a big inflation driver
I would say high oil prices while inflationary in the transportation area are non inflationary for everything else as the consumer has less to spend. When you put $75 in your tank that's $75 less for Wal-Mart. High oil prices are like a tax on the consumer and tend to slow the economy.
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Old 08-07-2007, 09:52 PM   #68
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Basically his theory is to keep a large chunk of your portfolio in a stable bond base and shoot for the moon with 10-30% of high risk/reward products.

Pretty much what I was doing with my original single guys ER portfolio...two thirds of it in Wellesley and the other third in my IRA in REITS, emerging markets, small cap value and Energy.

The downside is that you pretty much need a shitload of money to consider such a strategy...which isnt a big problem for NT.

The strategy did more or less work for me. All my "rockets" flew to the moon and when I couldnt explain the valuations anymore I dumped them. Then I got married. Thats when it turned weird...
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Old 08-08-2007, 03:57 AM   #69
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The market is volatile. I was looking at market volume in the S&P 500. I has experienced a significant rise. This goes along with the volatility... but the last time we had a spike was at the end of the last Bull.

I know there are other considerations. But the market is looking increasingly nervous.
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Old 08-08-2007, 06:54 AM   #70
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I would say high oil prices while inflationary in the transportation area are non inflationary for everything else as the consumer has less to spend. When you put $75 in your tank that's $75 less for Wal-Mart. High oil prices are like a tax on the consumer and tend to slow the economy.
Don't they put food in that category as well, anything with milk or corn
these days is up. And unlike driving, its tough to eat less (ok, maybe for
some that would be a good thing ).
TJ
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Old 08-08-2007, 07:00 AM   #71
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The market is volatile. I was looking at market volume in the S&P 500. I has experienced a significant rise. This goes along with the volatility... but the last time we had a spike was at the end of the last Bull.

I know there are other considerations. But the market is looking increasingly nervous.
Could it be part of Hedge Fund trading? They do account for A LOT of volume and they are a lot bigger these days.

teejayvans:
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Don't they put food in that category as well, anything with milk or corn
these days is up.
Yeah, corn is up huge and it is having some far reaching effects on what we consume. Milk is up because of corn right? Spikes in cattle feed?
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Old 08-08-2007, 09:47 AM   #72
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Spikes in cattle feed?
Good idea, that should teach the cows to eat less corn.
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Old 08-08-2007, 10:12 AM   #73
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i looked back on 2004, 2005 and 2006 and each year was volatile with at least 2 10% to 15% drops or more in the indexes even if there was a gain for the year. starting from last year it seems like a line up with smaller corrections. almost like people expect these returns

looks like homebuilders and financials are on fire. my guess is everyone thinks there is a rate cut in october and that the Fed is going to avoid a crisis and that there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.
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Old 08-08-2007, 10:27 AM   #74
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speaking of market opinions :
YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.

the highlights:
100% chance of recession, further...
100% chance of depression.

total economic collapse....gold above 1000, oil above 100, Dow
below 10000...
Don't say I didn't warn you ;-)
TJ
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Old 08-08-2007, 11:15 AM   #75
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... there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.
The thing to watch out for is hedge funds and any fund holding MBSs or CDOs, It is those derivative instruments that have protected the banks from even more exposure.

I wonder what a medium landing for housing would look like? I have this image of a plane coming in for a medium hard crash landing...
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Old 08-08-2007, 07:08 PM   #76
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too much rah rah rah on cnbc today

in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000
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Old 08-09-2007, 06:12 AM   #77
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too much rah rah rah on cnbc today

in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000
So now we have the CNBC indicator?

I think they ran out of doom and gloom guests after last week.

TJ
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Old 08-09-2007, 10:39 AM   #78
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My guess is that the market will go down today - up tomarrow - down early next week - up late next week - thats why I am looking at the market alot less these days.
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Old 08-09-2007, 01:39 PM   #79
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looks like glimmer of hope is gone

CNBC has been a great indicator since late 2000 when people were saying to buy Cisco because it was selling for $60 down from $100
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Old 08-09-2007, 03:30 PM   #80
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looks like glimmer of hope is gone

??

That tinfoil helmet getting too tight?

Don't confuse liquidity issues with fundamental problems. There is a lot of selling of quite sound companies and bonds based on certain investors' need for liquidity (hedge funds that have to meet redemptions), amplified by retail boobs who get caught up in CNBC or selling because prices are down.

You really think a AAA-rated morgage bond backed by prime loans that are performing has significant credit risk? Silly. How about selling stuff like EGLE? They indicated on the earnings call that within half an hour of putting out a press release that stated the have options to build several new ships they had a number of calls and emails asking if they would consider leasing or selling the ships at any price.
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