Market Opinions.

[al_bundy]

too much rah rah rah on cnbc today

in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000

 

[teejayevans]

too much rah rah rah on cnbc today

in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000

So now we have the CNBC indicator?

I think they ran out of doom and gloom guests after last week.

TJ

 

[Donzo]

My guess is that the market will go down today - up tomarrow - down early next week - up late next week - thats why I am looking at the market alot less these days.

 

[al_bundy]

looks like glimmer of hope is gone

CNBC has been a great indicator since late 2000 when people were saying to buy Cisco because it was selling for $60 down from $100

 

[brewer12345]

looks like glimmer of hope is gone

??

That tinfoil helmet getting too tight?

Don't confuse liquidity issues with fundamental problems. There is a lot of selling of quite sound companies and bonds based on certain investors' need for liquidity (hedge funds that have to meet redemptions), amplified by retail boobs who get caught up in CNBC or selling because prices are down.

You really think a AAA-rated morgage bond backed by prime loans that are performing has significant credit risk? Silly. How about selling stuff like EGLE? They indicated on the earnings call that within half an hour of putting out a press release that stated the have options to build several new ships they had a number of calls and emails asking if they would consider leasing or selling the ships at any price.

 

[al_bundy]

retail sales came out this morning and they were bad

 

[brewer12345]

retail sales came out this morning and they were bad

OK, so we are supposed to run around screaming as if our hair were on fire because some random, not very predictive statistic failed to live up to expectations? Please.

 

[Running_Man]

??

That tinfoil helmet getting too tight?

Don't confuse liquidity issues with fundamental problems. There is a lot of selling of quite sound companies and bonds based on certain investors' need for liquidity (hedge funds that have to meet redemptions), amplified by retail boobs who get caught up in CNBC or selling because prices are down.

Well in my world, if I need to produce cash in order to meet redemptions what the market will pay to meet that need will produce a fundamental change in the value of my holdings. An inability to meet your liquidity needs seems to be a fundamental problem in my book.

 

[brewer12345]

Well in my world, if I need to produce cash in order to meet redemptions what the market will pay to meet that need will produce a fundamental change in the value of my holdings. An inability to meet your liquidity needs seems to be a fundamental problem in my book.

You are entitled to your opinions, but note that liquidity issues in the market tend to be transitory, while fundamental problems are long-lasting. The former are good buying opportunities, the latter is why your portfolio should include some bonds.

 

[Nords]

i looked back on 2004, 2005 and 2006 and each year was volatile with at least 2 10% to 15% drops or more in the indexes even if there was a gain for the year. starting from last year it seems like a line up with smaller corrections. almost like people expect these returns
looks like homebuilders and financials are on fire. my guess is everyone thinks there is a rate cut in october and that the Fed is going to avoid a crisis and that there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.

too much rah rah rah on cnbc today
in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000

looks like glimmer of hope is gone
CNBC has been a great indicator since late 2000 when people were saying to buy Cisco because it was selling for $60 down from $100

retail sales came out this morning and they were bad

Geez, Al, so whaddya doing about all this horrible news? Have you gone 100% cash yet? Shorted the NASDAQ? Gold bullion? Shotgun shells, MREs, and a fallout shelter? Formed a support group with Chicken Little & Newguy?

I've been wondering why your refrain sounded familiar, and this morning I found out why. Our teenager sat down at the computer with breakfast and brought up the Reuters newsfeed. Over the next 15 minutes she recited an unending litany of one-liners of all the world's disasters... earthquakes, fires, floods, collapsing infrastructures, deaths, wars, and imploding home markets.

I finally asked her if she planned to change anything in her life after reading all this horrible news. "No, I guess not." Was there anything she wanted me to explain or anything she wanted me to do? "Uhmmm, no." So was she just reading that crap out loud to make herself feel better? "Guess so."

When she started to read the next headline, I got up and left the room.

Feeling better now?

 

[haha]

I don't know why he shouldn't post whatever message he wants. “What are you doing about it” sounds quite challenging, and might tend to shut up a lot of people. Why should he need to do anything about it? Or even more to the point, why should he share whatever he does with the board if he can expect challenging rebuttals?

When I came home this afternoon and looked first at my account, then looked at the ER board I was really surprised that there wasn't more bear talk or even fear posted.

Maybe this is why? Are we a chat room version of bubblevision?

Getting close to a 3% loss in the major indices is worthy of remark IMO, and worth of discussion that allows all points of view. A person would have to be deaf dumb and blind not to notice something different in the atmosphere over the past few weeks. Since may of us are completely dependent on our portfolios I think maybe we are entitled to be highly interested in whatever might be going on.

It may well be that doing something would be foolish. OTOH, maybe it would be smart. I just don't know why the entire idea should be taboo.

Ha

 

[unclemick]

Sitting in the swing chair in the shade(96 F) - reading Michael Burke's Outlook in my Moneypaper - looks like 'greed' may impel me to start some new DRIP's(ok so I'm not cured) when the bargins appear in October.

I also decided to let the lawn grow unmolested yet another day.
Heck I may run out to dinner in a restaurant with A/C instead of gas grilling out back.

Sometimes ya gotta make the tough decisions in ER.

heh heh heh - life is good!

 

[dex]

MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

It is August - I'm guessing a little more down side. All the news about the sub prime issue is not out and not know by the general public. I think a few more things must happen.
1. More bad news - today it was from Europe - Asia needs to chime in
2. The press must pick up the story more
3. The affects of higher credit must start to take affect - pictures of people being thrown out of their homes and business saying higher interest rates not allowing them to expand
4. talk about a recession or slow down.
I'm guessing it will take until the end of the year - expect a good January

Having said all that; I am averaging into the market. I'm about 25% invested in stocks now.

 

[haha]

MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

Having said all that; I am averaging into the market. I'm about 25% invested in stocks now.

I think stocks that are not utilities or very high dividend payers which resist the fall may be worth looking at to see if there is some theme that can be discerned.

I am long infrastructure, and if I get some confirmation during this drop I want to be really long when the slowdown is apparent and Ben is putting the pedal to the metal.

Ha

 

[cyclone6]

We haven't even had China go pop yet - and thats coming.... All the worlds markets are gyrating all over the place, and China just keeps steamrolling on...

Until the bottom falls out...

Its getting so confounding that even my long/short fund has been losing ground the last couple of days. It usually goes up when the market is down.

Lots of people out there scratching their heads, I believe...

 

[CybrMike]

I for one gambled $5K on some S&P calls right before market close. Hopefully tomorrow it goes up some so I can look smart

 

[Nords]

I don't know why he shouldn't post whatever message he wants. “What are you doing about it” sounds quite challenging, and might tend to shut up a lot of people. Why should he need to do anything about it? Or even more to the point, why should he share whatever he does with the board if he can expect challenging rebuttals?
It may well be that doing something would be foolish. OTOH, maybe it would be smart. I just don't know why the entire idea should be taboo.

I can see a concern or two with a question about asset allocation or a plan about where to go next. But four consecutive posts? If we want spewing headlines on a discussion board without context or analysis then we can get that anytime on CNBC or Yahoo! Finance.

I wonder who's driving the program trading and the last-minute volume. The curbs actually kicked into the first hour of this morning's trading, too, and I haven't heard of that for a long time. There seem to be just as many bargain-hunters as sellers, though.

Impressive drop today, but we're still down only 4.1% from our portfolio's all-time high a couple months ago.

I think we'll sell off some more Tweedy for the Dow dividend ETF (DVY).

 

[al_bundy]

went 100% cash back in july, but i did miss the absolute top. up around 6.5% YTD and unless the market changes course i'll probably end the year with around an 8% gain

interesting that yesterday the sp500 and nasdaq both bounced off the 50day averages. sp500 hit the 50 day line and sold off. nasdaq was above it for a little while until it sold off. the dow closed above the 50 day line since a lot of the companies will keep on making money even in a recession. looking at today's Dow we see P&G, coca cola and Mcdonalds did better than everyone else except GM.


forgetting about retail sales, subprime spreading to europe is bad because it's another loss of confidence. have to see what the LIBOR is tomorrow. usually tracks the Fed rate, but rumor is that it's going higher due to concerns. and of course what if it spreads all over the world?

the whole credit thing is a big risk rates will rise for everyone which means lower profits due to higher interest and of course it's a big hit on consumer spending. bloomberg radio said that some funds are suspending redemptions because no one knows how to value the mortgage credit holdings since there are no buyers. hypothetically anyone getting out now is getting paid more than the shares are really worth

interesting that the financials weren't up that much yesterday, but got clobbered today

the whole thing is a lot of what ifs

what if everyone around the world dumps any non treasury dollar assets like mortgage holdings?
what if this causes the dollar to tank and treasuries to tank?
what if 30 year fixed rates go up to 8%?
what will happen starting october when the rates reset and people can't even refi?

 

[barbarus]

A Man Has Needs.

Liquidity.

I gotta have a injection a liquidity.

Right NOW!!
I gotta have it right now, ya see?


I'm good for it. I'll pay ya back.

Next week maybe.

Next year.

But I'm good for the money. Ya know that.
I got big deals cookin' right now. Yah, right now.

But I need that liquidity RIGHT AWAY.
And get this lousy tin hat off my head.


Barbarus the Uncouth.

 

[CCdaCE]

I wish the whole goddamn thing would blow up and take KRE down with it. Then I'd definitely pull the trigger and buy a 100 shares.

-CC

 

[Nords]

I wish the whole goddamn thing would blow up and take KRE down with it.

I think it did that last week...

Then I'd definitely pull the trigger and buy a 100 shares.

... which I did last week, which is why I hope that was the bottom.

 

[FIREd]

I usually keep a 80/20 stock/bond allocation, but early last month I noticed that I was down to about 62/20/18 stock/bond/cash because many of my managed funds had built up large cash positions. I was complaining about it because it was affecting negatively my portfolio's performance (when the market was still going up). Boy, am I glad my managed funds had pulled back on equities given what happened to the stock market in the past few weeks... Hopefully they'll be as good at calling the bottom as they were calling the top...
I think we are in for some serious volatility until we sort out the consequences of the credit bubble pop, which I think could take several months, perhaps more as I believe a huge number of ARM mortgages are scheduled to reset in 2008/2009. After having sliced, diced, repackaged and sold subprime debt to foreign and US investors for years, people are now starting to wonder what they bought and they are finding out it's not even worth the paper it's printed on. The dollar could suffer tremendously if foreigners lose confidence in US assets. And it could be especially bad I believe if the federal reserve lowers interest rates.
But if things are handled responsibly and cool heads prevail, I believe that US stocks are pretty cheap right now: when you consider that the S&P is close to where it was in 2000, and then you factor in inflation and the dramatic fall of the dollar over the past 7 years, I think I like the US market for the intermediate term at least.
One thing is for sure: a lot of wealth is being destroyed right now. Between the scary stock market, the even scarier RE market, hedge fund blow ups and losses in some parts of the fixed income market, it's not looking pretty for people's personal balance sheets...

 

[CybrMike]

Looks like the global market is down 3%+ as well. Should be an interesting day tomorrow (later today I guess).

 

[outtarentals]

Sometimes doing nothing is doing something..... Well, I took the $650K from the sale of a rental house which closed 3 weeks ago, and because I didn't know what else to do with it straight off, bought auction rate preferreds as a place to park the money for a while. If I had turned it over to my money managers then, it would have been worth about $615K today, judging from the performance of the conservative mix they are using for the other money they are managing for me. Instead, I am averaging over 3.5% (tax and AMT free) so far. I might just stay there for the rest of the year.

 

[CCdaCE]

I think it did that last week...


... which I did last week, which is why I hope that was the bottom.

I saw that. Nice timing hopefully.

I just think the volatility lately will smack it once again. But, it's just gut feeling. I'm probably wrong. I realize I'm arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

-CC