Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 08-09-2007, 03:38 PM   #81
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
retail sales came out this morning and they were bad
__________________

__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-09-2007, 04:28 PM   #82
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
retail sales came out this morning and they were bad
OK, so we are supposed to run around screaming as if our hair were on fire because some random, not very predictive statistic failed to live up to expectations? Please.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 04:36 PM   #83
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,689
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
??

That tinfoil helmet getting too tight?

Don't confuse liquidity issues with fundamental problems. There is a lot of selling of quite sound companies and bonds based on certain investors' need for liquidity (hedge funds that have to meet redemptions), amplified by retail boobs who get caught up in CNBC or selling because prices are down.

Well in my world, if I need to produce cash in order to meet redemptions what the market will pay to meet that need will produce a fundamental change in the value of my holdings. An inability to meet your liquidity needs seems to be a fundamental problem in my book.
__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 04:42 PM   #84
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Well in my world, if I need to produce cash in order to meet redemptions what the market will pay to meet that need will produce a fundamental change in the value of my holdings. An inability to meet your liquidity needs seems to be a fundamental problem in my book.
You are entitled to your opinions, but note that liquidity issues in the market tend to be transitory, while fundamental problems are long-lasting. The former are good buying opportunities, the latter is why your portfolio should include some bonds.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 04:52 PM   #85
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
i looked back on 2004, 2005 and 2006 and each year was volatile with at least 2 10% to 15% drops or more in the indexes even if there was a gain for the year. starting from last year it seems like a line up with smaller corrections. almost like people expect these returns
looks like homebuilders and financials are on fire. my guess is everyone thinks there is a rate cut in october and that the Fed is going to avoid a crisis and that there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
too much rah rah rah on cnbc today
in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
looks like glimmer of hope is gone
CNBC has been a great indicator since late 2000 when people were saying to buy Cisco because it was selling for $60 down from $100
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
retail sales came out this morning and they were bad
Geez, Al, so whaddya doing about all this horrible news? Have you gone 100% cash yet? Shorted the NASDAQ? Gold bullion? Shotgun shells, MREs, and a fallout shelter? Formed a support group with Chicken Little & Newguy?

I've been wondering why your refrain sounded familiar, and this morning I found out why. Our teenager sat down at the computer with breakfast and brought up the Reuters newsfeed. Over the next 15 minutes she recited an unending litany of one-liners of all the world's disasters... earthquakes, fires, floods, collapsing infrastructures, deaths, wars, and imploding home markets.

I finally asked her if she planned to change anything in her life after reading all this horrible news. "No, I guess not." Was there anything she wanted me to explain or anything she wanted me to do? "Uhmmm, no." So was she just reading that crap out loud to make herself feel better? "Guess so."

When she started to read the next headline, I got up and left the room.

Feeling better now?
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 05:05 PM   #86
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,384
I don't know why he shouldn't post whatever message he wants. “What are you doing about it” sounds quite challenging, and might tend to shut up a lot of people. Why should he need to do anything about it? Or even more to the point, why should he share whatever he does with the board if he can expect challenging rebuttals?

When I came home this afternoon and looked first at my account, then looked at the ER board I was really surprised that there wasn't more bear talk or even fear posted.

Maybe this is why? Are we a chat room version of bubblevision?

Getting close to a 3% loss in the major indices is worthy of remark IMO, and worth of discussion that allows all points of view. A person would have to be deaf dumb and blind not to notice something different in the atmosphere over the past few weeks. Since may of us are completely dependent on our portfolios I think maybe we are entitled to be highly interested in whatever might be going on.

It may well be that doing something would be foolish. OTOH, maybe it would be smart. I just don't know why the entire idea should be taboo.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 05:08 PM   #87
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408


Sitting in the swing chair in the shade(96 F) - reading Michael Burke's Outlook in my Moneypaper - looks like 'greed' may impel me to start some new DRIP's(ok so I'm not cured) when the bargins appear in October.

I also decided to let the lawn grow unmolested yet another day.
Heck I may run out to dinner in a restaurant with A/C instead of gas grilling out back.

Sometimes ya gotta make the tough decisions in ER.

heh heh heh - life is good!
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 05:15 PM   #88
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

It is August - I'm guessing a little more down side. All the news about the sub prime issue is not out and not know by the general public. I think a few more things must happen.
1. More bad news - today it was from Europe - Asia needs to chime in
2. The press must pick up the story more
3. The affects of higher credit must start to take affect - pictures of people being thrown out of their homes and business saying higher interest rates not allowing them to expand
4. talk about a recession or slow down.
I'm guessing it will take until the end of the year - expect a good January

Having said all that; I am averaging into the market. I'm about 25% invested in stocks now.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 05:33 PM   #89
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,384
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

Having said all that; I am averaging into the market. I'm about 25% invested in stocks now.
I think stocks that are not utilities or very high dividend payers which resist the fall may be worth looking at to see if there is some theme that can be discerned.

I am long infrastructure, and if I get some confirmation during this drop I want to be really long when the slowdown is apparent and Ben is putting the pedal to the metal.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 05:41 PM   #90
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 98
We haven't even had China go pop yet - and thats coming.... All the worlds markets are gyrating all over the place, and China just keeps steamrolling on...

Until the bottom falls out...

Its getting so confounding that even my long/short fund has been losing ground the last couple of days. It usually goes up when the market is down. :confused:

Lots of people out there scratching their heads, I believe...
__________________
cyclone6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 06:52 PM   #91
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 325
I for one gambled $5K on some S&P calls right before market close. Hopefully tomorrow it goes up some so I can look smart
__________________
CybrMike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 07:39 PM   #92
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I don't know why he shouldn't post whatever message he wants. “What are you doing about it” sounds quite challenging, and might tend to shut up a lot of people. Why should he need to do anything about it? Or even more to the point, why should he share whatever he does with the board if he can expect challenging rebuttals?
It may well be that doing something would be foolish. OTOH, maybe it would be smart. I just don't know why the entire idea should be taboo.
I can see a concern or two with a question about asset allocation or a plan about where to go next. But four consecutive posts? If we want spewing headlines on a discussion board without context or analysis then we can get that anytime on CNBC or Yahoo! Finance.

I wonder who's driving the program trading and the last-minute volume. The curbs actually kicked into the first hour of this morning's trading, too, and I haven't heard of that for a long time. There seem to be just as many bargain-hunters as sellers, though.

Impressive drop today, but we're still down only 4.1% from our portfolio's all-time high a couple months ago.

I think we'll sell off some more Tweedy for the Dow dividend ETF (DVY).
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 08:52 PM   #93
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
went 100% cash back in july, but i did miss the absolute top. up around 6.5% YTD and unless the market changes course i'll probably end the year with around an 8% gain

interesting that yesterday the sp500 and nasdaq both bounced off the 50day averages. sp500 hit the 50 day line and sold off. nasdaq was above it for a little while until it sold off. the dow closed above the 50 day line since a lot of the companies will keep on making money even in a recession. looking at today's Dow we see P&G, coca cola and Mcdonalds did better than everyone else except GM.


forgetting about retail sales, subprime spreading to europe is bad because it's another loss of confidence. have to see what the LIBOR is tomorrow. usually tracks the Fed rate, but rumor is that it's going higher due to concerns. and of course what if it spreads all over the world?

the whole credit thing is a big risk rates will rise for everyone which means lower profits due to higher interest and of course it's a big hit on consumer spending. bloomberg radio said that some funds are suspending redemptions because no one knows how to value the mortgage credit holdings since there are no buyers. hypothetically anyone getting out now is getting paid more than the shares are really worth

interesting that the financials weren't up that much yesterday, but got clobbered today

the whole thing is a lot of what ifs

what if everyone around the world dumps any non treasury dollar assets like mortgage holdings?
what if this causes the dollar to tank and treasuries to tank?
what if 30 year fixed rates go up to 8%?
what will happen starting october when the rates reset and people can't even refi?
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
A Man Has Needs.
Old 08-09-2007, 09:07 PM   #94
Recycles dryer sheets
barbarus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
A Man Has Needs.

Liquidity.

I gotta have a injection a liquidity.

Right NOW!!
I gotta have it right now, ya see?


I'm good for it. I'll pay ya back.

Next week maybe.

Next year.

But I'm good for the money. Ya know that.
I got big deals cookin' right now. Yah, right now.

But I need that liquidity RIGHT AWAY.
And get this lousy tin hat off my head.


Barbarus the Uncouth.
__________________
barbarus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 10:15 PM   #95
Full time employment: Posting here.
CCdaCE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 887
I wish the whole goddamn thing would blow up and take KRE down with it. Then I'd definitely pull the trigger and buy a 100 shares.

-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
CCdaCE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2007, 10:22 PM   #96
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCdaCE View Post
I wish the whole goddamn thing would blow up and take KRE down with it.
I think it did that last week...

Quote:
Originally Posted by CCdaCE View Post
Then I'd definitely pull the trigger and buy a 100 shares.
... which I did last week, which is why I hope that was the bottom.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2007, 01:20 AM   #97
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,038
I usually keep a 80/20 stock/bond allocation, but early last month I noticed that I was down to about 62/20/18 stock/bond/cash because many of my managed funds had built up large cash positions. I was complaining about it because it was affecting negatively my portfolio's performance (when the market was still going up). Boy, am I glad my managed funds had pulled back on equities given what happened to the stock market in the past few weeks... Hopefully they'll be as good at calling the bottom as they were calling the top...
I think we are in for some serious volatility until we sort out the consequences of the credit bubble pop, which I think could take several months, perhaps more as I believe a huge number of ARM mortgages are scheduled to reset in 2008/2009. After having sliced, diced, repackaged and sold subprime debt to foreign and US investors for years, people are now starting to wonder what they bought and they are finding out it's not even worth the paper it's printed on. The dollar could suffer tremendously if foreigners lose confidence in US assets. And it could be especially bad I believe if the federal reserve lowers interest rates.
But if things are handled responsibly and cool heads prevail, I believe that US stocks are pretty cheap right now: when you consider that the S&P is close to where it was in 2000, and then you factor in inflation and the dramatic fall of the dollar over the past 7 years, I think I like the US market for the intermediate term at least.
One thing is for sure: a lot of wealth is being destroyed right now. Between the scary stock market, the even scarier RE market, hedge fund blow ups and losses in some parts of the fixed income market, it's not looking pretty for people's personal balance sheets...
__________________
FIREd is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2007, 02:29 AM   #98
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 325
Looks like the global market is down 3%+ as well. Should be an interesting day tomorrow (later today I guess).
__________________
CybrMike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2007, 03:13 AM   #99
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 149
Sometimes doing nothing is doing something..... Well, I took the $650K from the sale of a rental house which closed 3 weeks ago, and because I didn't know what else to do with it straight off, bought auction rate preferreds as a place to park the money for a while. If I had turned it over to my money managers then, it would have been worth about $615K today, judging from the performance of the conservative mix they are using for the other money they are managing for me. Instead, I am averaging over 3.5% (tax and AMT free) so far. I might just stay there for the rest of the year.
__________________
outtarentals is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2007, 07:49 AM   #100
Full time employment: Posting here.
CCdaCE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 887
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
I think it did that last week...


... which I did last week, which is why I hope that was the bottom.

I saw that. Nice timing hopefully.

I just think the volatility lately will smack it once again. But, it's just gut feeling. I'm probably wrong. I realize I'm arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

-CC
__________________

__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
CCdaCE is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Predictions for U.S. stock market in 2007 JustCurious FIRE and Money 60 12-31-2007 09:03 PM
Shrinking market to drive stock prices up? REWahoo FIRE and Money 7 12-29-2006 03:15 PM
Market Efficiency Q devo FIRE and Money 17 12-17-2006 12:51 PM
U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets? Donner FIRE and Money 57 09-15-2005 04:01 PM
Money market in 401K Bill FIRE and Money 2 05-31-2003 08:15 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:26 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.