Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Market Opinions.
Old 08-01-2007, 04:55 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
Market Opinions.

OK. Where do you think the market is going form here? Sept and Oct seem to be historically bad market months. Is this just seasonal stuff or is the big bad Bear waking up?
__________________

__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-01-2007, 06:00 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,626
In 1987, there was a credit problem just before the October debacle. I believe the Germans raised interest rates somewhat unexpectedly. Since both Asian and European markets are down 1.5% to 2+% today (August 1st), the US market is going to get pounded today. That's the short term outlook.

But last year in May-June the stock market was down 8% and emerging markets were down 26%. The year finished up quite a bit. This year, the stock market has a ways to go to drop the amounts that it dropped last year. What will happen for the rest of the year is easy to predict: The markets will be volatile.

Get your asset allocation set up that you are comfortable with. No one can predict where the market will be in December or next year.
__________________

__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2007, 06:30 AM   #3
Dryer sheet aficionado
yona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 45
The HK market dropped much more than 2% today (and I dropped 4%).
In my opinion, the stock markets in HK and the US both look reasonably priced. It doesn't mean they can't go lower, but 5-10 years from now they will be higher for sure.

Saying that, I am glad I don't own any bank stocks now. These mortgages and derivatives assets don't make me feel comfortable about financial institutions stocks.
__________________
Many people die at twenty five and aren't buried until they are seventy five.
Benjamin Franklin
yona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2007, 07:36 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
markets are hovering just above the 200 day moving average lines. whole thing depends on the mortgage problems and how they will affect the economy. could be 1998 all over again where markets dropped 20% - 50% from the peak and still ended the year up. could be like 1987 where they dropped and didn't regain the losses until 1990 or so.

problem is that there is so much leverage that when these mortgage funds go belly up or they get a margin call people may have to sell other investments as well to come up with the cash
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2007, 08:43 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
I think a lot of the bad news is already priced in, which is why we're no longer at 14,000. There could be further capitulation, but the support level of the Dow seems to be 13,000, and I don't see it going down below there...........

A LOT has to do with Bernanke and how the mortgage thing shakes out............
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 03:03 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,695
Doesn't look like 200 day MA will hold for S&P500
__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 03:10 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,440
Another sucking day. Down 284 points.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 03:23 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
VaCollector's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 544
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
....the support level of the Dow seems to be 13,000, and I don't see it going down below there...........
After today, only 182.15 more points to lose and we'll be testing your theory......next week should be very interesting, huh?
__________________
VaCollector is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 06:21 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
I'm pretty sure we're headed down.

A lot.

I'm still almost half in cash, and have been for about 4 months now.

After spending 2 days looking over the offerings and prices after all this mayhem, i'm still not seeing any great bargains.

But I think we will.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 07:14 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,695
Is this 1987 ... or is it 1973-74 ... or is it like blah-blah. The answer you didn't want is that there is no way to tell. The future depends on events yet to happen. If you look at 1973-74 we had Watergate, oil embargo, recession, inflation, etc. Could these events be predicted in advance? Could one look back at the 200 day moving average and predict Watergate?

Now if you want my opinion, I'm sticking to my planned asset allocation. What a dull answer. But I rebalanced in early July sensing that things were getting a little too good and will not rebalance into equities until we see a really big drop. If no drop, there is no problem as my AA is set where I want it. Personally my internal debate centers around what type of fixed income investments to have in these type of times. Ask if you really want to know .
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 07:42 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 377
I think a couple of years ago if I told someone the market would be over 13k today they would think I was nuts hehe. Large needed correction me thinks.

I would say 12kish then up to 15k!
__________________
Bigritchie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 08:08 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Quote:
Originally Posted by lsbcal View Post
Could one look back at the 200 day moving average and predict Watergate?
Absolutely...here ya go.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg watergate.JPG (95.3 KB, 33 views)
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 09:31 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,695
CFB, nice chart -- I'm impressed. The consequenses of Watergate appeared after Nixon was in office. Looks like from your chart the market didn't have that factored in yet.

Wish I knew if this war is ultimately going to be inflationary, or if this mortgage mess will lead to deflation ... not so cute fuzzy crystal ball.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 09:43 PM   #14
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Well if it's a typical market "correction", then one would expect at least a 10% drop, which would bring the dow to 12,600 or below. So we could still have a pretty long way to go on the downside (which I expect we will see before this thing is over). Right now I am glad I rebalanced earlier this year (in February for my wife's accounts and in June for mine) and that quite a large portion of our portfolio is held in cash right now. I pared down my small cap and my junk bond holdings when I rebalanced (though I wish I had done the same with my REITs... Oh well, I will hold onto them now and keep cashing in the dividends). But these days the only thing that makes me smile when I look at my portfolio, is my Prudent Bear fund. It's finally making money...
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 09:45 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
My crystal ball says "ask again later..."

Quite seriously though, now that we've gotten past my ability to predict Watergate retroactively, theres a difference between predicting random events in the future and the current realities of breaking key market fundamentals. Not that i'm a big chart and numbers kind of guy over the short term, but I'm a big believer in how the talking heads' yapping about the breaking of key market fundamentals affects investor psychology.

I'm still watching and waiting. If and when people become afraid, I'll continue sitting on the sidelines until they stop being terrified.

If the volatility slows down and everyone goes back to the happy dance, I might take a position or two in some beaten down sectors.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 10:55 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 2,405
Short term unsure.

Long term up.

Still 100% stocks.

Down five figures.

At age 38.

2Cor521
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 10:57 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
citrine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 944
I shifted money from my manager's equity fund at fidelity to my fidelity retirement (10K). I did however shift 3K to my AF European Growth R5.
I am thinking of shifting more into there.....any suggestions?
__________________
citrine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2007, 11:26 PM   #18
Full time employment: Posting here.
Alex's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 696
Personally, I will continue to add to my investments in accordance with my Asset Allocation and investment policy. If all goes well, in five years I will wake up and be FIRE'd!!! If not, I'll reevaluate then. What happens week to week, well, I'll leave that to the market timers and financial pornographers!


All I know is today was a terrific day and I bet tomorrow will be even better! Life is good, very good indeed.........
__________________
Oh, you hate your job? Why didn't you say so? There's a support group for that. It's called EVERYBODY, and they meet at the bar.--Drew Carey
Alex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2007, 01:54 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
I think a lot of the bad news is already priced in, which is why we're no longer at 14,000. There could be further capitulation, but the support level of the Dow seems to be 13,000, and I don't see it going down below there...........


Quote:
Im pretty sure were headed down.
Quote:
A lot.
I'm still almost half in cash, and have been for about 4 months now.

After spending 2 days looking over the offerings and prices after all this mayhem, i'm still not seeing any great bargains.

But I think we will.
Would you boys please get your stories straight so we can know what we should do?
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2007, 02:41 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 1,432
49 and retired, 100% invested in individual equities.
Earnings steadily climbing, being adjusted further upwards.
Dividends being increased steadily on each stock
Last few months stock prices - down 6 figures, do not care, sleeping well
Short term future stock prices - do not care
Long term future stock prices - do not care
__________________

__________________
learn, work, save, invest, fire
CyclingInvestor is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Predictions for U.S. stock market in 2007 JustCurious FIRE and Money 60 12-31-2007 09:03 PM
Shrinking market to drive stock prices up? REWahoo FIRE and Money 7 12-29-2006 03:15 PM
Market Efficiency Q devo FIRE and Money 17 12-17-2006 12:51 PM
U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets? Donner FIRE and Money 57 09-15-2005 04:01 PM
Money market in 401K Bill FIRE and Money 2 05-31-2003 08:15 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:34 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.