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Market pointing to the Nov low and no one is jumping out the window!
Old 01-20-2009, 12:32 PM   #1
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Market pointing to the Nov low and no one is jumping out the window!

The S&P is about 50pts north of the November low and there doesn't seem to be much talk about it. Why?

My guesses are:
People are resigned to the situation/pain
Those that would have panicked have done so and don't have anything else to say.
Media & politicians aren't hyping it as much as they did a couple of months ago.

I still have a few cents to throw into the market. I'm guessing the market will go lower until the uncertaintly over the next stimulus package and TARP funding is resolved.

It looks as if the dollar is making it's move now. I think it is still too early to buy foreign currencies.

High yield corp bonds still looking good.
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:40 PM   #2
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Med's baby!
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:48 PM   #3
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There is nothing left to say.
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:50 PM   #4
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The pound sterling is getting murdered. Rogers is even warning against investing money in the UK. Apparently the currencies with the best outlook right now (despite the USD recovery) are the Swiss Franc, the Norwegian Krona and the Japenese Yen.

Bloomberg.com: News

Hum, the typical international equity fund usually has a fairly large stake invested in the UK, that can't be good.
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:53 PM   #5
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I am still above my Nov 20. About 5.4% above. Which is more than 1 yr of living expenses. Will see if I will lose that too.

Anyway, I see that financial stocks keep setting new lows. Not too surprising, since bad news keep coming out about B of A, and Citigroup. Most other industrial stocks are above their Nov 20 lows. Look at Bershire for example. So, there is no panic selling like Nov. Not yet anyway.

Will I have the courage to buy? Will anyone here? Or do you even have any cash left?

PS. I still will not buy financials. There are so many other stocks to chose from.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:02 PM   #6
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Everyone that was going to have a heart attack, did so in November.
All that's left are bargain hunters and people buying Palladium.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:04 PM   #7
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There is nothing left to say.
Don't be silly! - - of course there is:

Pssst - Wellesley.

And - not having a dog left in the fight anymore - who do I now pick for the Superbowl?

heh heh heh - Da Lazy Portfolio Smackdown winner in band number 2 last year.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:05 PM   #8
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I still haven't bought in with my Vanguard money from the house sale. At first I figured I had missed the bottom so I was in no real hurry while I was still learning about bonds and working on perfecting my AA. Now I realize I was just making another brilliant investing decision. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

I will be buying in soon. I have no idea if I'll be buying at bottom or not (obviously), but I think I'll go all in when I do it instead of DCAing. I'm not putting quite as much in since I decided to buy down my mortgage to a conventional during refinancing. But it's still going to be a big chunk for me. I'll check back on the thread in 15 years or so and let you know how it worked out.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:10 PM   #9
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Will I have the courage to buy? Will anyone here? Or do you even have any cash left?
I am still buying. I bought on 01/12, 01/14, and plan on buying today as well. I am fully rebalanced now, so I am not buying equities only anymore as I was on October/November. My portfolio is currently yielding 4% and I will try to keep it that way during this tough time.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:11 PM   #10
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I've panicked as much as I could and now I accepted my new reality . I 'll just ride this out unhappily .
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:30 PM   #11
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On November 20th, the S&P may have been low like that but Yahoo finance says the Dow was 7464.51 at close (with an adjusted close, adjusted for dividends and splits, of 7552.29). I have been adding the max to treasury bond funds in my tax deferred accounts, so it is difficult to compare their values to those on Nov 20th. However, the taxable (main) accounts in my portfolio are all considerably higher now than they were then, though I haven't transferred any money into them other than dividends etc.

I promise you that if/when the taxable side of my portfolio reaches its November 20th values, I'll be screaming bloody murder with the best of them. On the other hand, I am pretty resigned to the fact that we are in for rough times. I just like to moan and squawk about the market.

Edited to add: As for buying, I will probably rebalance when my AA gets a little further out of whack. Today, it is 43:57 instead of 45:55, and that is not quite enough to spur me to do anything about it.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:32 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Moemg View Post
I've panicked as much as I could and now I accepted my new reality .
I'm confused by this statement. Isn't there always room for more panic?

BTW, I think I made a fundamental error earlier this fall by assuming that this situation was a garden variety panic, and that governmental intervention would be huge and effective.

Not a garden variety panic, and although intervention has been huge I believe that much of it has been corrupt and wrong headed. It has certainly not been effective.

I am very glad that I have minimal financial company exposure partly because the financial companies I do own have been creamed and have reduced themselves to relative unimportance for further losses. Though they could represent good upside should this current mess start to resolve itself.

I sometimes think of the guy on another thread who has much of his assets in BAC. That man is Evil Knieval's twin.

Ha
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:34 PM   #13
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My imaginary ostrich and I are waiting this whole mess out...
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Old 01-20-2009, 02:49 PM   #14
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I'm confused by this statement. Isn't there always room for more panic?



Ha

No, after awhile panic gets boring and you need to busy yourself with other things .
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Old 01-20-2009, 03:21 PM   #15
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We got pre-panicked by the media, such as the newspaper stories that already appeared several months ago recalling living through the Great Depression.
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:26 PM   #16
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I am still buying. I bought on 01/12, 01/14, and plan on buying today as well. I am fully rebalanced now, so I am not buying equities only anymore as I was on October/November. My portfolio is currently yielding 4% and I will try to keep it that way during this tough time.
My stock portion is back down to 48%. Tomorrow I will buy to add to the positions I already have. Why, someone has been buying. The NYSE volume is not as high as Nov 20, but not low either. NASDAQ has fairly high volume. Another wave of capitulation?

Tomorrow I will buy. Perhaps 1% worth.
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:15 PM   #17
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My stock portion is back down to 48%. Tomorrow I will buy to add to the positions I already have. Why, someone has been buying. The NYSE volume is not as high as Nov 20, but not low either. NASDAQ has fairly high volume. Another wave of capitulation?

Tomorrow I will buy. Perhaps 1% worth.
I bought some more today (about 1% of portfolio). It's a sad day when you have to buy stocks just to keep your yield up...
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:23 PM   #18
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I bought some more today (about 1% of portfolio). It's a sad day when you have to buy stocks just to keep your yield up...
Hmmm - should I send my Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement 2015 some nice cheery Thinking of You cards to buck them up?

A Get Well Soon card might be pushing it.

heh heh heh -
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:54 PM   #19
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:58 PM   #20
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Why no one is jumping out the window?

What jumping? We have to crawl up and out of the basement window!
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