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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-18-2005, 11:44 AM   #41
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Re: Market Pummelling

RE:GMAC id wait for some more GM trouble,pretty much a dealt hand.GMAC should get drug down even more by simple affiliation,regardless of liabilities of parent company.But personally i wouldnt load the boat,a nice dollup should suffice.But thats just me
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-18-2005, 12:22 PM   #42
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Re: Market Pummelling

Well, despite a lot of strong earnings reports today, the market is just treading water. Anybody heard of this guy? His article is pretty bearish:

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050415/12527.html

So far I'm feeling pretty smart with my large cash position this year, but if I ever get a big head just chant the magic phrase, "ELN! ELN! ELN!"
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-18-2005, 12:55 PM   #43
 
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Re: Market Pummelling

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Please remember that there are certain people of the investing community that would stay bullish if the DOW went to 1,000. They will be of no use in a bad market and will actually be your worst enemy. We will continue to let the market's price and volume action be our guide. It has done a good job for us so far.
I've never heard of this guy, but if he would not be Bullish if the Dow dropped to 1,000, he would probably miss the biggest stock sale in History. I would certainly call Dow 1,000 a bottom.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-18-2005, 01:54 PM   #44
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Re: Market Pummelling

They say there's 3 kinds of writers:
1. Those that have knowledge to communicate
2. Those that have someone else's knowlege to communicate, and
3. Those that are writing for attention

This Gary Kaltbaum is surely #3. I don't know his background, I'm not sure he has one. He's one of those "screaming whatever to be heard".

I'm not saying he's wrong, however. I just would not listen to him at all.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-18-2005, 02:16 PM   #45
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Re: Market Pummelling

Yeah, he wasn't passing the smell test, just checking with y'all if you thought there was some wheat with that chaff.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 03:39 PM   #46
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Re: Market Pummelling

Down another 115 today. We should start a pool for

1. When the red will end (as in a date)?
2. Where will it end (9500, etc)?

The winner will receive some flooz once I get my time machine working again...

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 03:41 PM   #47
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Re: Market Pummelling

Count me out. I don't care.

JG
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 04:50 PM   #48
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Re: Market Pummelling

Below DOW 6000, I might consider upping my stock allocation. Doubt if we'll get that lucky though.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 04:54 PM   #49
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Re: Market Pummelling

Hellfire, if it hits 6000, I might even be a buyer

JG
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 05:55 PM   #50
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Re: Market Pummelling

If it hits 6000, I'd probably be visiting one of those sleazy payday lenders to buy more.

Total sleeper alert: I have been a shareholder in Shore Community Bank (SHRC) for years. They are doing a secondary offering available to current shareholders first at $21 (vs. market of $29), but will offer it to everyone if they can't sell all they want to current shareholders. Might be a nice opportunity if you are interested in a well-run (but tiny bank) in an attractive area.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 07:18 PM   #51
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Re: Market Pummelling

Sounds like a deal buying SHRC at $21.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-20-2005, 08:22 PM   #52
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Re: Market Pummelling

Ok, since I want to be in the flooz running, i'll cast my bet-

I'm going to project the market at 8100 sometime in 2005.

If you're curious, here's why I chose that number. I assumed that stocks were fairly valued at the beginning of 2003, figured out (approx) how much the market rose until 2005, and then factored in the declining value of the USD during that same period. I then discounted for inflation during those periods and projected through the rest of 2005 and came up with 8100.

Why did I start at 2003? It's when the market really started to move... and is also about the same time credit was becoming fairly cheap (1.25% fed rate). The cheapest money came during 12/03-Q1 2004 (.98% fed rate) which is also about the time the market peaked. As you can probably guess, my underlying hypothesis is that cheap credit gave investors additional leverage which propped up the market during this latest run, effectively mitigating the effects of the declining USD.

You may totally disagree with my thinking, but that's my number *
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-21-2005, 05:10 AM   #53
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Re: Market Pummelling

Quote:
1. When the red will end (as in a date)?
2. Where will it end (9500, etc)?
Bad summer, a rally starting in the fall of 2005, then another bad summer in 2006.

In late October 2006 it starts ramping up for the next Presidential election in 2007 and 2008.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-21-2005, 05:12 AM   #54
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Re: Market Pummelling

I'm sorry. I once again added to my stock portfolio on Monday. The market alway's tanks after I invest. I first started investing in 87 and we know what happened then. I don't know why I keep plugging along. So far it has always come back and every time we have these drops there is someone saying that we are in for a long term drop. I survived the drop in 2000-2002 and Im sure I'll make it through whatever happens next. If it were to drop another 20% I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Time's like these are good learning experiences. I was actually thinking about changing my asset allocations in 99 because I was only earning a paultry 5-6% in fixed income. Then 2000 reminded me why asset allocation is important.

I would prefer fewer learning experiences though. As I get older my investments definatly get more conservative.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-21-2005, 12:12 PM   #55
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Re: Market Pummelling

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The great bull market ended only after everyone including your barber "knew" that stocks were the best thing since sliced bread.
This bear will end after everyone is equally sickened and convinced of the opposite view.
My guess is we're not even close yet.
Rok, this is my view also. it could be partly because I started investing in 73-74, when pessimism ruled. I keep waiting for a return of those days when the sun never did quite get up, when half of the cars were stalled on I5 'cause they were out of gas, and 80% of the former machinists at Boeing were tending bar.

I's like my wife used to say, "You think I'm angry, I'll show you angry!" And by golly, she did. Same with the market. Right now it's just a porcupine twitching its tail, just daring us to take a bite.

Admittedly it is taking its own sweet time to get around to whacking us, and I suppose it might not.

Still, whatever bets I place are on don't pass. (With the exception of energy.)

Mikey

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-21-2005, 12:20 PM   #56
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Re: Market Pummelling

I'd like the return of volatility if I was a trader. Only a whiff of fear and too much panic buying today to really expect that the weaklings have been finally flushed out. Long term horizon, so it's mostly interesting to observe.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-21-2005, 02:28 PM   #57
 
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Re: Market Pummelling

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*Long term horizon, so it's mostly interesting to observe.
I don't even observe anymore. I have too many hobbies and interests.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-22-2005, 08:05 AM   #58
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Re: Market Pummelling

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Ok, since I want to be in the flooz running, i'll cast my bet-

I'm going to project the market at 8100 sometime in 2005.

If you're curious, here's why I chose that number. I assumed that stocks were fairly valued at the beginning of 2003, figured out (approx) how much the market rose until 2005, and then factored in the declining value of the USD during that same period. I then discounted for inflation during those periods and projected through the rest of 2005 and came up with 8100.

Why did I start at 2003? It's when the market really started to move... and is also about the same time credit was becoming fairly cheap (1.25% fed rate). The cheapest money came during 12/03-Q1 2004 (.98% fed rate) which is also about the time the market peaked. As you can probably guess, my underlying hypothesis is that cheap credit gave investors additional leverage which propped up the market during this latest run, effectively mitigating the effects of the declining USD.

You may totally disagree with my thinking, but that's my number

I'll bite, March Madness is over. I think we'll hit a low of Dow ~9000 in Feb/March of 2006, but it won't rocket up much from there for a while.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-22-2005, 04:50 PM   #59
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Re: Market Pummelling

Hey why not get a pool started. Winner gets an all expenses paid fishing trip with C-T.

I say the market bounces between 10,300 and 10,600 for the next few months.

What say you?
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-22-2005, 05:30 PM   #60
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Re: Market Pummelling

I am afraid I could not survive a fishing trip with CT.
He would run my ragged old neo-con ass in the ground.


Cheers,

Charlie
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