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Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 01:56 PM   #1
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Market Pummelling

So the market is getting rocked:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050415/wall_street.html?.v=25

and next week is earnings, which people are betting will not be fun. S$P has been at this number what, in 1998? So are we looking at a buy opportunity in about a month when things settle down? Or is this the End of Days? Build a bunker? :P

I have about 20k in MM (which is big for me) I'm thinking of moving into the market....maybe I'll just wait!
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 02:38 PM   #2
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Re: Market Pummelling

I also have been patiently waiting for an oppertunity to go "All In" but not sure of the timing

Any suggestions??

In the meantime I have been getting ready by setting up a spreadsheet with 70% stock and 30% bonds, fixed income - I am only about 28% stocks now and otherwise in bonds and MM. CD's.

My plan is:
LCG**(10%)
SCG (10%)*
Comm/REIT (10%)
LCV (10%)
SCV (10%)
Intl*(20%)
Fixed (25%)
Cash (5%)

I know nobobdy encourges market timing but when is a "most excellent" time to jump?? Be Real!!
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 02:51 PM   #3
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Re: Market Pummelling

The market often has not done well in post election years, or the summer time.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 03:33 PM   #4
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Re: Market Pummelling

Right about the market going south in year after election. If you insist on market timing, jump back in... in October. At least my market guru advised this to me this a.m. I ignore his counsel, but pass it along for what it's worth. Who knows, he could be right.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 04:17 PM   #5
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Re: Market Pummelling

Hey Eagle...............Re. your "market guru"............
he doesn't know squat. None of the others do either.

JG
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 04:19 PM   #6
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Re: Market Pummelling

Yeah Laurence, but ELN is at least doing better this week...see, if you had 'doubled down' you'd be making some money.

I should at this time point out that six months ago I called this downturn. 8)

According to my best guesses and many ridiculously unrelated sources of information, it will continue until late July or early August, firm up, and we'll see some upside movement by October.

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 04:27 PM   #7
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Re: Market Pummelling

Th

'Sell in may and go away' - an old saw right often enough to be - welllll l- an old saw.

October - Dec every year if I have some spare cash to invest.

P.S. Yeah you rite! - I remember your call on the market.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 04:39 PM   #8
 
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Re: Market Pummelling

Quote:
I should at this time point out that six months ago I called this downturn. 8)
Yup, and I predicted at the same time that no matter what happens, someone will come out of the woodwork and tell us that they predicted it!
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 05:00 PM   #9
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Re: Market Pummelling

I bought some IBM today at 77...felt right

we'll see

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 05:04 PM   #10
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Re: Market Pummelling

There was another thread about this a few weeks ago, search for "the market that goes from suck to blow."

The cliffs notes version: testicular fortitude versus perma-bear mentality.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 05:12 PM   #11
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Re: Market Pummelling

Quote:
Yup, and I predicted at the same time that no matter what happens, someone will come out of the woodwork and tell us that they predicted it!
This prediction is the only one sure to be right.

Cut-Throat, in another thread you mentioned that crashes only occur after bubbles. I don't wish to disagree with you, but I think that may depend on one's definition of a crash. I believe the behavior of the Nikkei since 1980 may give a contra-example. A bubble burst in 1990 close to 40,000. It bottomed in 1992 around 15,000 (I can't give exact numbers because I am looking at a Yahoo Chart.) That was followed by an 8 year trading range between about 14,000 and 22,000. Then in 2000 there was another abrupt fall from 20,000 to 7600- a fall of 62%. In my book, whether this is a crash or not, it is sure meaningful to an investor. And it came out of what I would call a trading range. The range was more volatile than the recent DJI range, but I am not sure what that might or might not mean.

Mikey
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 05:27 PM   #12
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Re: Market Pummelling

Hmm

Maybe the Japanese should start paying some decent dividends and lighten up on their 'sweetheart cross holdings' among corporations. ?? Tax structure toward div.'s and cap gains.

A little 'Adam Smith' might go a long way. Of course - I have no knowledge of their markets - just pontificating.

A 62% drop here - well that might get my attention!

Nikkei - about 11,370 or so?

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 05:37 PM   #13
 
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Re: Market Pummelling

Quote:
This prediction is the only one sure to be right.

Cut-Throat, in another thread you mentioned that crashes only occur after bubbles. I don't wish to disagree with you, but I think that may depend on one's definition of a crash. *I believe the behavior of the Nikkei since 1980 may give a contra-example. A bubble burst in 1990 close to 40,000. It bottomed in 1992 around 15,000 (I can't give exact numbers because I am looking at a Yahoo Chart.) That was followed by an 8 year trading range between about 14,000 and 22,000. Then in 2000 there was another abrupt fall from 20,000 to 7600- a fall of 62%. In my book, whether this is a crash or not, it is sure meaningful to an investor. And it came out of what I would call a trading range. The range was more volatile than the recent DJI range, but I am not sure what that might or might not mean.

Mikey
Mikey,

This certainly may be true of the Japanese Market, which I know nothing about.

I was only pondering the U.S. Market. And it seems that major corrections (30% or more) happened shortly after bubbles and not after a 4-5 year plateau that we have been in.

But who knows This time could be different And then there will be those that remind us that they predicted it!




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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 06:18 PM   #14
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Re: Market Pummelling

Oh boy another market timing post...happens every time we see a drop :
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 06:33 PM   #15
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Re: Market Pummelling

I bought some IBM stock today....through the employee stock purchase program. nice price for a change
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 10:41 PM   #16
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Re: Market Pummelling

I knew the market was going to fall. I just knew it.

I have a similar statement I'm waiting to post after the next big rally.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-15-2005, 10:49 PM   #17
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Re: Market Pummelling

Well TH, you are FIRE and I'm not, so you must be doing something right, I'll give you that much! But why you gotta bring up ELN (still holding. by the way)? :P

I think I'll just DCA my 20k into some Vanguard funds and let it ride. It's just that this is my first serious amount of after tax money, it feels different investing it.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-16-2005, 12:20 AM   #18
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Re: Market Pummelling

It looks very similar to 2004, where nothing (slow downtrend) happened all year and then Oct-Dec market(s) jumped 10%+.

I am in for the long term. What I do not like about this drop is that nothing seems to counter the drops even when looking at a well diversified portfolio. Energy have done well but everything else have dropped in tandem.

Will see what the future brings

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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-16-2005, 02:31 AM   #19
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Re: Market Pummelling

I'd rather buy when stocks are on sale than when they are at a premium.
A downturn in the market is not a bad thing for those who have a long term view. This applies, IMHO, to those in 50's and 60's as well as those in their 20's. I just happen to know a few people in their 80's who think the same way-- I love optimists!
That being said, I have no idea which way the market is going Monday, next week, next month; therefore, DCA.
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Re: Market Pummelling
Old 04-16-2005, 02:48 AM   #20
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Re: Market Pummelling

Good thoughts Unc. Can't wait to see what happens on Monday's "underpriced rally" attempt. Should be more entertaining than the Young and the Restless!

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