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View Poll Results: How much do you market time?
Never, buy and hold is all I do. 26 34.67%
Very occasionally, maybe when there is a full moon. 23 30.67%
Several times a year. 12 16.00%
All the time. I'm a full blown addict. 5 6.67%
Other (talk about it below if you want to) 9 12.00%
Voters: 75. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-19-2016, 04:02 PM   #41
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I am always looking for market timing opportunities, but the steady-state is buy, hold, and rebalance.

I think I am not doing too badly with the kind of market timing that I like to do.

I think there are many misconceptions about market timing with a couple addressed by the explanation that accompanied the poll. One misconception is that some people think one has to be perfect with timing all the time. Another is that one has to do it with one's entire portfolio as in go 100% into cash, then 100% into stocks, then back, then ....

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Old 05-19-2016, 04:45 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
... Another is that one has to do it with one's entire portfolio as in go 100% into cash, then 100% into stocks, then back, then ....
Yes, I've recently come to appreciate this more.

Now I have a 60/40 portfolio that can go to a 40/60 under one set of market numbers and to even 0/100 under a more extreme set of these numbers. By going to the first level of risk reduction, I'm reducing the chance that my model doesn't work as well as backtesting indicates and/or that the market takes a terrible sharp plunge that we have not seen in US market history.

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