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View Poll Results: How much do you market time?
Never, buy and hold is all I do. 26 34.67%
Very occasionally, maybe when there is a full moon. 23 30.67%
Several times a year. 12 16.00%
All the time. I'm a full blown addict. 5 6.67%
Other (talk about it below if you want to) 9 12.00%
Voters: 75. You may not vote on this poll

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Market timer or not?
Old 05-16-2016, 03:29 PM   #1
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Market timer or not?

We all know market timing is pure evil. But some of us are just that, evil.

This poll will allow market timers to sort of come out of the closet.

Clarifications:

1) If you answer "all the time", it doesn't mean you are moving money on a daily basis or day trading. It just means you would consider moving assets to other asset classes under certain conditions. It means you are open to moving assets, maybe even most of your assets.

2) Rebalancing is not being defined here as market timing.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:37 PM   #2
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I admit it, I am so bad at market timing! I don't really know anybody who is any good at it, so I console myself with that fact.

I voted, "I would never market time. Buy-hold only."
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:41 PM   #3
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I voted "other." I time boiled eggs.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:43 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I voted "other." I time boiled eggs.
That is indeed a very loose definition of market timing.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:44 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
I admit it, I am so bad at market timing! I don't really know anybody who is any good at it, so I console myself with that fact.

I voted, "I would never market time. Buy-hold only."
Clearly you've missed the most important contrary indicator (hint: Whee!).
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:44 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
That is indeed a very loose definition of market timing.
Especially if you don't boil them for more than a couple of minutes.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:45 PM   #7
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I am a market timer, but have to answer "Other" because the frequency of my buy/sell is not something I have complete control of.

If the market is flat, there's nothing for me to do. When the market goes crazy, then I will try to be a contrarian and go against the crowd. There's no telling when the market will become neurotic, or when it stays calm.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:52 PM   #8
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I wasn't sure how to vote, as the moon has nothing to do with my actions. I am not a market timer, but I do look at the tax consequences whenever rebalancing warrants a sale. Sometimes I will delay rebalancing due to avoid a tax hit that looks unnecessary.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:52 PM   #9
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I did it once, but not on purpose. And I really didn't do it, my FA did it.

Last fall I diversified and sold off half of my single largest equity. I didn't want to sell that much as I was trying to minimize capitol gains. I wanted to sell 10% and keep doing it for a while. He sold 50% and I had a 50K gain. So at the end of the year he sells off a bunch of stuff at a loss to zero out the gain. I ask him if he's getting rid of some dogs and he says no, they are all good stocks and I'm going to buy it all back but I have to wait 30 days to avoid the "wash sale".

He sold them all end of December and the market went south for the next 5 weeks and when he bought it all back (and them some) I made out very nicely. I sold high and bought low.

So, not really market timing and I don't believe in it either, it was just tax avoidance but hey sometimes you just get lucky -
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Old 05-16-2016, 04:11 PM   #10
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I put in a few clarifications in my original post.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:18 PM   #11
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A full moon is every month. Several times a year could be less than 12 times a year. Did you mean a "blue moon"?
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:18 PM   #12
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I voted for the first option, "Never..." as I stubbornly try to follow indexes and rebalance only once a year if needed.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:31 PM   #13
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I do not time the market, other than my monthly buys.

I typically put a limit order in, near the start if the month. It is 1-2% below the current market price.

It it doesn't hit by the 15th or so, I adjust it a bit. It seems like I get a small discount on most buys.

I am already in for this month's purchases. 100 Shrs of DVY. 30 Shares of IVV. It adds another ~$33 a month to my dividend stream.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:32 PM   #14
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Quote:
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A full moon is every month. Several times a year could be less than 12 times a year. Did you mean a "blue moon"?
I guess blue moon would make more sense. Werewolf's can take read this literally.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:34 PM   #15
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I've tried some market timing and my "timing" was so bad it was a clue for what NOT to do.

I've done much better since converting to a couch potato portfolio and rebalancing only when it gets out of wack by 5% or more.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:35 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I am a market timer, but have to answer "Other" because the frequency of my buy/sell is not something I have complete control of.

If the market is flat, there's nothing for me to do. When the market goes crazy, then I will try to be a contrarian and go against the crowd. There's no telling when the market will become neurotic, or when it stays calm.
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I put in a few clarifications in my original post.
I saw the clarifications. Still would not change how I vote.

I am a true market timer, not one of these wimpy rebalancers. I need no sanction from any guru to buy/sell.

Sir Templeton is my hero. When the market was undervalued, he said so. When the market was in bubble territory, he was not afraid to say it was. Templeton did not beat around the bush.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:35 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbieB View Post
I did it once, but not on purpose. And I really didn't do it, my FA did it.

...

He sold them all end of December and the market went south for the next 5 weeks and when he bought it all back (and them some) I made out very nicely. I sold high and bought low.

So, not really market timing and I don't believe in it either, it was just tax avoidance but hey sometimes you just get lucky -
I've been lucky twice - Like Robbie, I got lucky this winter - transferred DW's IRA to her TSP account. So, liquidated her holdings in late December and then watched the market plummet while Fidelity/TSP took their time getting the cash transferred. By the time we got back in, things were down about 10% or so.

The first time was way back in 1980, DW's grandparents had given us a gift of 100 shares of Southern Co. stock. We were still in college and needed cash badly. I told the broker (remember them) to sell on the first trading day of 1981 and that was the high point until well into 1982.

Still, not a market timer.
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Old 05-16-2016, 05:50 PM   #18
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I have no idea what the market is going to do and I know it, so I buy & hold, a couch potato portfolio. It's kinda hard to screw that up.
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Old 05-16-2016, 06:50 PM   #19
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I voted that I'm a full blown addict. It is what it is, no shame about it.
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Old 05-16-2016, 07:28 PM   #20
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Wait - there is a full moon several times a year. Like 12. That's quite a bit more than very occasionally IMO.
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