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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 10:23 AM   #21
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 11:21 AM   #22
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Re: Market timing !?!

Interesting year so far.

I did my fund rebalancing in late April/early May this year. The stock market then promptly sold off. It wasn't quite enough to trigger my rebalancing again so soon though. The equity portion of my allocation has just caught back up to where it was before the selloff.

The bond portion keeps stumping me too. I see these (seemingly) ridiculously low bond yields and I keep thinking that I must need to trim bonds (by not reinvesting the monthly dividends). But every time I check, my bond fund percent is just about where it should be (or just under). The thing is that even as bonds have gone up in value (down in yield), the stock market has gone up even more - just enough to keep everything in balance!

So I'm just doing a whole lot of nothing! (Expect that I'm not reinvesting distributions in my REIT funds - that should trim them back to par, and a few other equity funds which are above allocation).

Audrey
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:11 PM   #23
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by audreyh1
I did my fund rebalancing in late April/early May this year. The stock market then promptly sold off. It wasn't quite enough to trigger my rebalancing again so soon though. The equity portion of my allocation has just caught back up to where it was before the selloff.
As more and more people become active in indexing and rebalancing, it will begin to affect the market, right? As people sell off their winners that will drive those prices down. And as people buy the laggards that will drive those prices up. Then, won't we need to rebalance earlier and earlier in order to make our changes before the adverse affect of the herd strikes?
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:38 PM   #24
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by Patrick
As more and more people become active in indexing and rebalancing, it will begin to affect the market, right? As people sell off their winners that will drive those prices down. And as people buy the laggards that will drive those prices up. Then, won't we need to rebalance earlier and earlier in order to make our changes before the adverse affect of the herd strikes?
The impact of the relative few who actually follow the tenets of indexing and periodic rebalancing (rather than listening to their gut and attempting to time the market) will be so small that it will likely have little effect. When it comes to market drivers, think fear and greed, not logic and need...

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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:44 PM   #25
 
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Re: Market timing !?!

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As more and more people become active in indexing and rebalancing, it will begin to affect the market, right? As people sell off their winners that will drive those prices down. And as people buy the laggards that will drive those prices up. Then, won't we need to rebalance earlier and earlier in order to make our changes before the adverse affect of the herd strikes?
This reminds me of the Yoggi Berra saying that "It's so crowded there, that no one goes there anymore"
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:46 PM   #26
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
My gut tells me the market is going to go down soon.

My gut contains partially digested toast, jelly, milk, egg plant parmesan, wine, oatmeal chocolate chip cookie, banana, a vitamin pill, water, almond roca, beer, and a bug that I breathed in and swallowed.

I don't listen to my gut.
What kinda bug?
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:52 PM   #27
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
When it comes to market drivers, think fear and greed, not logic and need...
Bull's eye! Who needs "need" when greed is so plentiful? Seriously, "fear" is what I'm scared of.
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:53 PM   #28
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
This reminds me of the Yoggi Berra saying that "It's so crowded there, that no one goes there anymore"
How is this relevant to my post? :
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:53 PM   #29
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by mountaintosea


Ah windsurf I too lost on Bob's call of the Qs.
Me too. I admit, however, that he did emphasize it was an extremely speculative move to be made only with dollars you can afford to lose. Most subscribers read this as "jump on in everybody, I guarantee results!"





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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 12:55 PM   #30
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by Sam
Bull's eye! Who needs "need" when greed is so plentiful? Seriously, "fear" is what I'm scared of.
I need greed. Fear doesn't scare me.
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 01:32 PM   #31
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Re: Market timing !?!

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I made a boo boo: Took REIT and International value (IV) off the table on 10/30. Both have gone up, REIT 6% and IV 4%.
Me too. But I prefer to think of the REIT as "having met my investment expectation".



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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 01:36 PM   #32
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Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
As more and more people become active in indexing and rebalancing, it will begin to affect the market, right? As people sell off their winners that will drive those prices down. And as people buy the laggards that will drive those prices up. Then, won't we need to rebalance earlier and earlier in order to make our changes before the adverse affect of the herd strikes?
If this were true, we would see far fewer surges and few corrections. It would be a much lower volatility market and it would make it way easier on the average investor. Even though we haven't had a major >10% correction since 2003, we still have some pretty wild swings - especially in certain asset classes.

I don't think MOST people rebalance portfolios with fixed asset classes. Certainly hedge funds and speculators don't. I think most people chase after the hot stocks and that's what drives the market.

Audrey
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 01:53 PM   #33
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Re: Market timing !?!

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What kinda bug?
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 03:58 PM   #34
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Re: Market timing !?!

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. . . Gulppp . . .
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 04:15 PM   #35
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Re: Market timing !?!

My research shows that market timing (MT) is generally a result of hubris. It's that investor who has figured it all out and he will make those skillful buys/sells that will assure him of spectacular returns. Oh, sure most of his MT moves are losers, however he, conveniently, recalls only the winners, never the losers.

In his world he has always made MT selections that beat the whole world day after day.

In reality, he has maxed out is credit cards, is 2 months behind in the mortgage, has large loans against the 401(k) and will be using his last $3 to buy a lotto ticket in the morning. Wish him luck!
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 04:43 PM   #36
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Re: Market timing !?!

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My research shows that market timing (MT) is generally a result of hubris.
My 'gut' agrees with you but do you actually have any research to reference?

I found in my brief two year Q&R trading account that it did not seem too difficult to find underpriced stocks and I was a bit ahead of the S&P500, even at the end including expenses, but I had more difficulty figuring out when to sell and then my 'portfolio' was small enough that it did not seem worth all the effort I spent on managing it. Now I like my target retirement account so I can do other things with my time.

I only knew one serious trader and its a different world than most of the so called traders here, this guy actually managed a part of the Rothchild family resources. He made them, and himself, a lot of money for two or three years and retired somewhat burned out.
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 07:43 PM   #37
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Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
My research shows that market timing (MT) is generally a result of hubris. It's that investor who has figured it all out and he will make those skillful buys/sells that will assure him of spectacular returns. Oh, sure most of his MT moves are losers, however he, conveniently, recalls only the winners, never the losers.

In his world he has always made MT selections that beat the whole world day after day.

In reality, he has maxed out is credit cards, is 2 months behind in the mortgage, has large loans against the 401(k) and will be using his last $3 to buy a lotto ticket in the morning. Wish him luck!
Go to www.elitetrader.com. They did a poll and the majority made over 1K per day!
They did another poll and the median yearly return was around 30%!
Even over here the median return beat the S&P500. Which is better than the average fund manager.


If people get such good returns then they should have a few million to show for it. Go figure.


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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 09:00 PM   #38
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Re: Market timing !?!

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They did another poll and the median yearly return was around 30%!
Do people actually respond to the poll if their returns are below par?
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 09:05 PM   #39
 
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Re: Market timing !?!

Yeah - everyone I talk to wins in Las Vegas!
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Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 09:18 PM   #40
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Re: Market timing !?!

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Yeah - everyone I talk to wins in Las Vegas!
when my freinds to to Vegas they don't win or lose - they BREAK EVEN....
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