Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 04:29 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Market timing !?!

I know, it's a dirty word. As much as I enjoy watching my mostly stock portfolio setting new highs month after month, I'm also getting concerned. Both S&P500 and Nasdaq have been doing so well since the beginning of 2003. That's about 4 years of continous good performance. Can't help but thinking about getting closer and closer to the end of the upswing.

What does your gut say?

__________________

__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 04:41 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam

What does your gut say?
My gut doesn't have much to say about anything but digestion. As to market timing, my 45/55 mix says....it's just about right.

Yep, I'm FIREd, retired, and ridin' my allocation roller coaster to the full stop...

__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 04:59 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
My gut doesn't have much to say about anything but digestion. As to market timing, my 45/55 mix says....it's just about right.
Pretty strong gut. Good for you.
__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 05:06 PM   #4
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Market timing !?!

My gut tells me to get ready to do nothing. First thing tomorrow, I'm gonna stand pat and not budge an inch.

After the first of the year, I'm going to rebalance, which should take some profits off the table. This would include my REIT index fund that I invested in over 3 years ago. My gut said that this Fund has been going up for years and now I'm going to allocate some money to it, what a fool. Yet another 25% gain this year. I've got all of money that I invested in it 3 years ago back and then some!
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 05:09 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pasadena CA
Posts: 2,695
Re: Market timing !?!

Since I'm still working a market decline would be a buying opportunity. The question I have is a short, sharp or long, slow decline?
__________________
T.S. Eliot:
Old men ought to be explorers
yakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 05:28 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Pretty strong gut.
Not really. Just 30+ years of learning the hard way that I have no market timing skills. :P

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 05:44 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,414
Re: Market timing !?!

me too , i got lucky once or twice market timing but i suck at getting back in.. i have been getting more conservative over the last 2 years but thats more a lifestyle change than market timing.
__________________
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 06:29 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Market timing !?!

Vanguard's REIT Index (1998) and Small cap value index

Out of them this year and all in Target 2015 - as part of my campaign to control those pesky hormones.

Still have about 15% in individual stocks - to feed the disease should another outbreak occur.

heh heh heh heh
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 07:40 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 442
Re: Market timing !?!

Forget for a moment, where the market has been. Just look at current valuations.

1. P/E are still resonable.

2. Rates are stable. Maybe trending slightly down.

3. Companies are full of cash. Ready to drive stock buy backs and M&A.

4. Market participation is still far far from mania level.


My advice is quit looking at the charts. Buy when you think its a good value. Sell when its overpriced.
Simple as that.
__________________
dmpi is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 07:55 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Re: Market timing !?!

I made a boo boo: Took REIT and International value (IV) off the table on 10/30. Both have gone up, REIT 6% and IV 4%.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 08:27 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Re: Market timing !?!

My guts tell me that I canít predict where the psycho market will be this time next year. Ten years from now I say it will be up from here Ė itís all that uncharted territory between here and there that has me baffled.

But, like Wahoo, CT and Uncle Mick, Iím going to rush right out and get busy doing a lot of nothing.

Iím also rebalancing based on what is right/wrong in my portfolio, because youíve got to weed out the losers that arenít going to get better anytime soon. Or, and this is more the case this year, you have to trim back some of the winners just because theyíve become a higher than acceptable percentage of the portfolio. There will be some element of timing, mostly just to look at the sectors to see if I should hang on to something a little longer or sell it now.

My gut feeling is that it will be an okay year ahead. Nothing spectacular either way. Like dmpi I see a lot of positives, but there are some negatives that could be a real drag. But thatís what I was thinking last year, and YTD Iím up something along the lines of a small boatload of money.

Iím going to do my thing based on my timeline and then watch the show.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 09:12 PM   #12
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 699
Re: Market timing !?!

Last year US stocks were underperforming, so all my new money went into them. This year US stocks have remained neutral, with Japanese stocks underperforming (after going nuts last year) and Non-US-non-JP stocks booming (after being neutral last year), so it looks like most new money will be going into Japanese stocks from next month.

Interesting to finally see the three regions I use (JP, US, and Elsewhere) begin to perform differently from each other year-to-year. It seemed like everybody was in lockstep from 2000-2004 or so, so there wasn't much need for rebalancing then.
__________________
bpp is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 09:38 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Can't help but thinking about getting closer and closer to the end of the upswing.

What does your gut say?

My gut says the market will go down and then up and then down. You get the point. Get an allocation your comfortable with and then go on with life. Much the same as some others have said.
__________________
ďI guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've saidĒ Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 10:01 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 352
Re: Market timing !?!

Yup; been feeling the drip, drip, drip of those hormones. Only it's not testosterone; rather, it's cortisol, the fear/stress hormone. Good news and calm, in my life, has always been interrupted by the jar of some downer. Is that one defintion of life? So, my thoughts have been running to, "Well, what bad thing is about to happen now that everybody is basking in buckets of dough resulting from nothing more than having enough to invest in the corporate band wagon." The last time I had this feeling, I had to spend the next year listening to Bob Brinker brag about his bail out call (of course, that was just before I started paying attention to him). I became a subscriber and promptly lost huge on his QQQ call. Drip, drip, drip.
__________________
windsurf is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-04-2006, 11:13 PM   #15
Full time employment: Posting here.
mountaintosea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 553
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by windsurf
The last time I had this feeling, I had to spend the next year listening to Bob Brinker brag about his bail out call (of course, that was just before I started paying attention to him). I became a subscriber and promptly lost huge on his QQQ call. Drip, drip, drip.
Ah windsurf I too lost on Bob's call of the Qs.

But I think unless something horrible happens ( who can predict?) the market will zigzag on up. We are two years out from the BIG election. I think both sides feel a lot is at steak. Historically the 2 years before the presidential election are up years. 8)
__________________
mountaintosea is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 06:46 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BUM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,778
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick2
Vanguard's REIT Index (1998) and Small cap value index

Out of them this year and all in Target 2015 - as part of my campaign to control those pesky hormones.

Still have about 15% in individual stocks - to feed the disease should another outbreak occur.

heh heh heh heh
Hi mick!

Me too. I think I do what you do...and it works out just fine. I seldom look at or discuss, my and DW's IRA's and SEP's. They are well Vanguarded and I don't tinker with them. I don't expect to touch them for ten or more years.

The 10% thats in "my account"...thats another story! Its my 10/90 allocation. Ten percent of my holdings, ninety percent of my rhetoric.

So back to the thread... yep, I took some bucks off the table last week. Not PFE though, gonna hang in. Didn't buy more. Still in the green for me, so far.

heh


__________________
In a panamax down by the river.
BUM is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 08:20 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
tryan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,449
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:

I became a subscriber and promptly lost huge on his QQQ call. Drip, drip, drip.
But he put you back in 100% March 11, 2003 .... should have recovered the Q's (and then some).

I use Brinker for my 401 stash ... didn't have access to the Q's so I was protected from myself. :
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
tryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 08:47 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,515
Re: Market timing !?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountaintosea
We are two years out from the BIG election. I think both sides feel a lot is at steak. Historically the 2 years before the presidential election are up years. 8)
I think that's why the market is going up so much this quarter. EVERYONE knows the next two years should be up years - so they are getting in NOW.

Kind of like how in some years the "January effect" is played out in Nov and Dec.

I'm not saying the next two years are going to be bad, but they very well could be lackluster - or at least not nearly as good as anticipated.

Audrey
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 09:46 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,199
Re: Market timing !?!

My gut tells me the market is going to go down soon.

My gut contains partially digested toast, jelly, milk, egg plant parmesan, wine, oatmeal chocolate chip cookie, banana, a vitamin pill, water, almond roca, beer, and a bug that I breathed in and swallowed.

I don't listen to my gut.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Market timing !?!
Old 12-05-2006, 10:04 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Re: Market timing !?!

Very funny TromboneAl. You're sure that's all? Nothing else nasty beside the bug?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
Forget for a moment, where the market has been. Just look at current valuations.

1. P/E are still resonable.
2. Rates are stable. Maybe trending slightly down.
3. Companies are full of cash. Ready to drive stock buy backs and M&A.
4. Market participation is still far far from mania level.

My advice is quit looking at the charts. Buy when you think its a good value. Sell when its overpriced.
Simple as that.
That's pretty convincing, dmpi.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountaintosea
But I think unless something horrible happens ( who can predict?) the market will zigzag on up. We are two years out from the BIG election. I think both sides feel a lot is at steak. Historically the 2 years before the presidential election are up years. 8)
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
I think that's why the market is going up so much this quarter. EVERYONE knows the next two years should be up years - so they are getting in NOW.
Never thought of that. Good point.
__________________

__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
My favorite market timing metric wabmester FIRE and Money 15 05-07-2006 11:46 AM
Is this market timing? Spanky FIRE and Money 3 05-10-2005 11:15 AM
Market Timing Article today............. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 22 09-01-2004 11:35 AM
Scott Burns on Market Timing intercst FIRE and Money 2 07-06-2004 05:43 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:41 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.