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market timing
Old 07-15-2013, 06:58 AM   #1
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market timing

I know its all best guesses - but August 2013 - looks like a good time to go all in index?

5 year history shows this as a high point so not sure what to think based on all of the information I have read.

Thanks!
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:11 AM   #2
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You need to ask Clair Voyant. She's the only one who can provide an accurate answer to your question.
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:13 AM   #3
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August 2009 looks like a better time to go all in. Why are you looking for a recent high point to change your asset allocation?
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:22 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by growing_older View Post
August 2009 looks like a better time to go all in. Why are you looking for a recent high point to change your asset allocation?
I didn't have a choice before. Liquidity from private company stock.

Firecalc says it will work - its just a big deal so making conversation around it for 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th opinions etc..
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:25 AM   #5
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You need to ask Clair Voyant. She's the only one who can provide an accurate answer to your question.
Crystal Baul also has keen insight for these things as well.
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:25 AM   #6
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haha ok -
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:28 AM   #7
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Look into value averaging. In short, you invest more when the market is relatively low and less when the market is relatively high.

For example, let's say you have $120k to invest and you want to invest it over ~12 months. Invest $10k. A month later add enough to get you balance to $20k. A month later add enough to get you balance to $30k. Repeat until fully invested.

So if going into the third month your $20k has grown to $21k because of a market rally you would only invest $9k that month. OTOH, if your $20k has declined to $19k because of a market pullback you would invest $11k that month.
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Old 07-15-2013, 07:48 AM   #8
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Studies have shown with a lump sum to invest, on average you do better to put it all in as soon as available, but psychologically this can be difficult and lead to lots of self doubt and second guessing. If you think that might be an issue for you (investing at all time high, will I kick myself later) then pick a monthly or quarterly amount and dollar cost average in to the market over a year or two. The theoretical difference in investment returns is tiny, but the "sleep factor" may be a lot better.
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Old 07-15-2013, 08:10 AM   #9
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Studies have shown with a lump sum to invest, on average you do better to put it all in as soon as available, but psychologically this can be difficult and lead to lots of self doubt and second guessing. If you think that might be an issue for you (investing at all time high, will I kick myself later) then pick a monthly or quarterly amount and dollar cost average in to the market over a year or two. The theoretical difference in investment returns is tiny, but the "sleep factor" may be a lot better.

Thanks!

I have no problem going all in for now!
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Old 07-15-2013, 08:27 AM   #10
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Look into value averaging. In short, you invest more when the market is relatively low and less when the market is relatively high.

Agree

I have been selling a few positions (raising cash) where the valuation has
gotten way ahead of historical norms. But don't follow my lead, I normally
sell a little early (protecting my capital and taking profit on a very good gain).

This market is amazing! Most hedge funds have been fighting the rally and under performing.

Anybody else notice the stock performance on some of these large international companies?
Earnings and revenue will get lowered, price falls off and a few weeks later, it starts marching back up.
Believe that is QE.
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Old 07-15-2013, 10:25 AM   #11
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If you are selling company stock now, you can compare the stock price with the index NAV's, past and current. If the index prices have decreased relative to the stock, that may indicate a good time to buy the index (stock high, index low). If the index is hitting new highs you might want to wait a bit if you think things will turn around. I did that when selling company stock and buying other stocks during 2001-2002. Given that you are not diversified in either company stock or cash, you should take whatever opportunity you see to diversify. If you are in cash, then that will be when the indexes are a bit down.
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