Originally Posted by Lsbcal
Did you ever test this approach in various markets going back some decades and compare to other approaches (such as taking your highest equity allocation and just doing buy-hold)? Monthly SP500 and EAFE data is available going back to at least 1970. You can get the SP500 stuff from Yahoo history and EAFE from MSCI.
Whatever I've done has been back tested. No assurance of future success but at least it worked before.
Nope, just did it in 2008-2009. What I outlined above was only a plan for investing cash in a down market, sort of a trigger-based DCA. If you have the cash already, it beats just hanging onto it while the market dips and then recovers. There may be an optimum set of triggers and amounts to invest that would backtest nicely, but I haven't done that.
In order to raise that cash initially I have been following my retirement portfolio projections and selling when the market is ahead of plan. So far so good, but I'll remain flexible with it. That's my version of market timing.