Market Timing Schmarket Timing

[Lsbcal]

OP checking in.

Yeah I regret it down a couple grand

Maybe September will give you a reentry trade?

Where is that preying emoticon?

 

[eta2020]

OP by now I am about 60k-70k up from date when you sold. And as I said in addition I have no taxes to pay on any trades.

 

[robnplunder]

As long as the OP buys back at lower than what he sold on 7/30, he wins. It can still happen. The market isn't too far up from 7/30 levels and a correction can come at anytime for any reason. Economy growth rate isn't setting any new record. Stock prices is at relatively expensive level one may argue. Bob boag may still have the last laugh. Who can really tell?

 

[eta2020]

As long as the OP buys back at lower than what he sold on 7/30, he wins. It can still happen. The market isn't too far up from 7/30 levels and a correction can come at anytime for any reason. Economy growth rate isn't setting any new record. Stock prices is at relatively expensive level one may argue. Bob boag may still have the last laugh. Who can really tell?

Well I should sell now ..... and if I do exactly same timing of going back to market as OP I will do even better.

But I never ever timed markets so I will pass that idea.

I am sure with hindsight 20/20 one can find clever exit and entry points and make killings in timing market.

 

[robnplunder]

Well I should sell now ..... and if I do exactly same timing of going back to market as OP I will do even better.

But I never ever timed markets so I will pass that idea.

I am sure with hindsight 20/20 one can find clever exit and entry points and make killings in timing market.

I am not a market timer either. But I am secretly (well, not so much now) rooting for the OP to win. It took guts (be it reckless, dumb, brilliant) to do what he did and I want him to get rewarded for it. But if market keeps going up, that works for me even better .

 

[eta2020]

IMO people on this forum (including me) have no skills to do successful timing of market or individual equities. They may have a luck to it here and there with success.

We are nor Carl Icahns

But lets wait for OP to make posting on a day when he goes back into market.

 

[Totoro]

Side remark: Carl Icahn is a high stakes poker player, not a market timer. He pushes management of stagnant companies around to get off their asses and start delivering value. Very different.

I'm not sure there actually is a really rich market timer around. Can't think of a single succesfull one right now.

I'll just stick to a 50/50 allocation (roughly) right now. Heads (market up), I win! Tails, (market down), I win and get an excellent entry opportunity.

 

[LOL!]

So far ...
Market timing 0, Schmarket timing 1

 

[robnplunder]

I'm not sure there actually is a really rich market timer around. Can't think of a single succesfull one right now.

Maybe, someone like Putin is creating his own market timing opportunity. I am sure there are others who can, too.

I'll just stick to a 50/50 allocation (roughly) right now. Heads (market up), I win! Tails, (market down), I win and get an excellent entry opportunity.

Me, too, except I am 40/60, with part of 60 in aggressive bond funds (emerging market, e.g). My target is 8% yearly return over the long run and that should be enough to retire on.

 

[robnplunder]

So far ...
Market timing 0, Schmarket timing 1

Don't you have your own market timing thread? The first few times I've seen your thread's subject line, I thought it was about "LOL" at market timers. I didn't know "LOL!" was a user name.

 

[LOL!]

Yes, it's a very successful market timing thread with tens of thousands of views.

 

[bob boag]

OP still on the sidelines. Good luck yall.

 

[pb4uski]

So far it has only cost you 1% or so (Total Stock index is up .97% since 7/30 with dividends reinvested). That is down a bit since 9/6 when it was up 2.28% from 7/30.

I hope it works out for you but I don't think it is the smart play. The most difficult part of market timing is knowing when to get back in.

 

[target2019]

OP still on the sidelines. Good luck yall.

Funny you mention that. Yesterday I researched the business cycle. Before, I was convinced we were heading to a recession in 2015. Now I am not as sure.

Are you using signal(s) to move back in?

 

[eta2020]

OP checking in.

Yeah I regret it down a couple grand

OP you may do well given the way market goes......

 

[bob boag]

OP you may do well given the way market goes......

Watch me catch the falling knife ...

 

[aim-high]

Watch me catch the falling knife ...

You may not want to grab it now. It's still has a few stories to fall!

 

[robnplunder]

Bob boag, are you back in? What is your plan?

 

[bob boag]

Bob boag, are you back in? What is your plan?

I'm ascared of Aug-Sept-Oct. I hope to go back to a 30/70 position at the end of Oct if things seem more stable or up. In my worthless opinion I think there might be a pop after the election

 

[bob boag]

OP here - Wanted to lock in my gains (avoided losses) so I reinvested my parked cash today.

Moved all my Vanguard money market cash to Wellesley (VWIAX) for the time being.

Moved my Fidelity money parked in their short-term bond fund into Total Market Stock (VSTVX).

Back-of-the-envelope indicates I avoided losing about $60K. Whether or not we're about to drop into a bigger correction in the near future, at least I saved that much.

I will fine-tune to get down to about 30/70 because I'm a nervous nelly and want to avoid a repeat of my irrational behavior. Good luck.

 

[NW-Bound]

I would save about $200K in losses if I sold when you did and bought back now.

Market timing works if you reduce losses. It does not have to result in a gain to be called successful.

Enjoy!


PS. Umm... Make it $180K if the market holds till close today. Things are improving. But still...

 

[bob boag]

I would save about $200K in losses if I sold when you did and bought back now.

Hmmm 200,000/.05 = 4,000,000 just in stocks

Yikes, can I park your car sir?

 

[NW-Bound]

Not necessarily. What made you think mine was a 5% loss?

I could have only $500K, but in a single stock that dropped 50%.

By the way, I have "lost" close to $700K in past downturns, meaning real downturns and not mere corrections. A $200K "loss" still hurts, but I must be getting used to pain.

 

[eta2020]

Gentleman by now we are off about 3.5% from where we were when this discussion started. (I think around 1970 S&P 500)

If I sold and bought back today I would have much less money then I had before due to taxes.....

But in IRA/401K account it would be different story. None the less I am not smart/lucky enough for any kind of timing

 

[robnplunder]

OP here - Wanted to lock in my gains (avoided losses) so I reinvested my parked cash today.

Good move. I say you are trading, and not really market timing. I do the same with a small portion of my portfolio.