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Old 07-22-2011, 10:52 AM   #41
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Oh boy, another thread on my-way-is-the-best-way to invest .

I thought investing was suppose to be a dispassionate exercise.

But I guess it's not possible to separate our ego from our investment methodology.

My take...
You can succeed with some well researched market timing or buy-hold methods assuming you stick to your knitting.

Agree, what works for one person may not work for another. Yes, there can be many paths to the same destination.

That said, investing strategy is very personal and passionate (that got us to where we are, able to FIRE). Hearing a different strategy that says ours is not any good is like someone saying, a red rose is not red but orange which makes it difficult to not give our 2 cents (or 6 cents ) worth of opinion.
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Old 07-22-2011, 11:47 AM   #42
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I had a buy & hold Bogle strategy during the market meltdown in 2008. I have a couple of friends that saw the writing on the wall and sold all of their stock positions before the crash. I would be lying to you if I told you that I did not envy them at the time.
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Old 07-22-2011, 12:12 PM   #43
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Why debate it? Just start a new thread and post the trades/results each month. Follow the rules, no second guessing.

We'll see how it goes.

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Old 07-22-2011, 12:16 PM   #44
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I had a buy & hold Bogle strategy during the market meltdown in 2008. I have a couple of friends that saw the writing on the wall and sold all of their stock positions before the crash. I would be lying to you if I told you that I did not envy them at the time.
Did they get back in? When? Do you still envy them?
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Old 07-22-2011, 12:33 PM   #45
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I'm currently using market timing but only for <5% of my portfolio. Been doing this for year and a half and fine tuning the strategy. It's beating the index but I can't get myself to use this 20% of my portfolio.... so no way 100% will work. I once went up to 10% of my portfolio but I ended up constantly thinking about this and it's no healthy.

Your strategy might work if you're totally unemotional and follow the buy/sell signals but, for me, there's no way I can implement this on even 10% portfolio... there will be too much emotion involved at that point and might stray from the strategy. At the end of the day, your market timing strategy might beat B&H&R but you have to pick a strategy you can stick to in a severe bull/bear market. Sounds easy but based on how I felt back in 2008, 2009, no way I can implement market timing and be sane during the day.
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Old 07-22-2011, 01:27 PM   #46
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One of life's strangest phenomena is how hard people work to say "It won't work! No! No! Never will it work!

From where comes this passion to say no, non, nyet, nej?

Ha
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Old 07-22-2011, 01:34 PM   #47
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I'm an indexer, and DCA and shoot for my percentage allocations to try and take my emotions out of the process. Even with that approach...something like the 2008 meltdown was difficult to bear (no pun intended) at times.
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Old 07-22-2011, 01:37 PM   #48
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I have successfully timed the market this year by watching the threads when I see a " Whee " thread then I sell and wait till I hear doom & gloom and buy back . It's been 100% successful so far . Thanks forum members !
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Old 07-22-2011, 03:53 PM   #49
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Well, believe it or not, over the last seven+ years it's just possible that there have been one or two other posters who have felt the same way and made similar statements. However for some reason they seem to have all drifted on to other things before sharing the ultimate results of their tempting strategies.

So make a real commitment and put your keyboard where your timer is. Start a thread in the stock-picker's forum, and post your trades for all to see.

Better yet, if your strategy supports the delay, then post the trades that you'll make in 24-48 hours and let the front-runners tell you how you're doing.

Show a little longevity and stick to it for 2-3 years. If you're "lucky" then you'll get a nasty bear market for you to show off your timing skills.

Similar to this thread on the "Should I pay off the mortgage?" question:
Covering a mortgage without losing your ass(ets).
Be sure to subtract taxes, trading costs and also present your returns on a risk adjusted basis. "Beating an index" is insufficient in isolation.

DD
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Old 07-22-2011, 04:46 PM   #50
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I recently heard that 50% of all positive market days happen either during the week before or the week after a full moon, so you could try and trade on that.

Also monday and friday have on average 40% of the down days of the market.

With those two tips, I think you are well on your way to beating the index.
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:01 PM   #51
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Hilarious. You have a promising second career as a comedian.

Everybody seems to be having a wonderful time making fun of me and any concept of active management. Fine. I have no need to prove anything to you or convince anybody. I know this works -- I know many people who've done it very successfully for many years. If you don't believe it, that's your choice.

Obviously you are all very confident you have the ultimate answer and have no need to consider any alternate ideas. I won't waste any more time trying to discuss or document anything that challenges your dogma.
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:10 PM   #52
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Well, believe it or not, over the last seven+ years it's just possible that there have been one or two other posters who have felt the same way and made similar statements. However for some reason they seem to have all drifted on to other things before sharing the ultimate results of their tempting strategies.
Some don't drift, they flounce...

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I have no need to prove anything to you or convince anybody.
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:30 PM   #53
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I'm an indexer, and DCA and shoot for my percentage allocations to try and take my emotions out of the process. Even with that approach...something like the 2008 meltdown was difficult to bear (no pun intended) at times.
I do not know of any equity investment approach that does not involve pain.

With buy-hold you have those sickening down drafts.

With timing you have those occasional whipsaws which are a characteristic of all timing methodologies I've seen.

I think the pain exists because it's called the equity risk premium. Risk means occasional pain or the danger of it even if you haven't yet experienced it.

You just have to pick your poison and stick to your knitting -- sounds poetic.
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:31 PM   #54
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Some don't drift, they flounce...
If I throw a "so there, hmph!!" over my shoulder, does that increase my flouncing score?
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:45 PM   #55
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If I throw a "so there, hmph!!" over my shoulder, does that increase my flouncing score?
I'm not sure. Maybe you should start a separate thread and post your flouncing activity so we can verify your results.
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:48 PM   #56
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I do not know of any equity investment approach that does not involve pain.

With buy-hold you have those sickening down drafts.

With timing you have those occasional whipsaws which are a characteristic of all timing methodologies I've seen.

I think the pain exists because it's called the equity risk premium. Risk means occasional pain or the danger of it even if you haven't yet experienced it.

You just have to pick your poison and stick to your knitting -- sounds poetic.
Yes, poetic

From the rebalancing and surviving the free fall of 2008 came widsom. Also had to repeat to self (only a paper loss until sold, think of all the shares bought at discount). Then when the market did pop back up...sweet reward for sticking to it.
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Old 07-22-2011, 08:47 PM   #57
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Why debate it? Just start a new thread and post the trades/results each month. Follow the rules, no second guessing.

We'll see how it goes.

-ERD50
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I'm not sure. Maybe you should start a separate thread and post your flouncing activity so we can verify your results.
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Everybody seems to be having a wonderful time making fun of me and any concept of active management.


Obviously you are all very confident you have the ultimate answer and have no need to consider any alternate ideas. I won't waste any more time trying to discuss or document anything that challenges your dogma.
There's two votes for post the results. That's not making fun of the idea, it's simply a way to measure it. If it works (or not), we all learn something.


I'm always looking for alternatives. My B&H approach is due to a lack of alternatives I feel I can trust. I have no dogma in this fight. Let's just take a look, what's wrong with that?

-ERD50
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Old 07-22-2011, 09:30 PM   #58
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I think you are crazier than a shthouse rat, but if it works for you it is all good.

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Hilarious. You have a promising second career as a comedian.

Everybody seems to be having a wonderful time making fun of me and any concept of active management. Fine. I have no need to prove anything to you or convince anybody. I know this works -- I know many people who've done it very successfully for many years. If you don't believe it, that's your choice.

Obviously you are all very confident you have the ultimate answer and have no need to consider any alternate ideas. I won't waste any more time trying to discuss or document anything that challenges your dogma.
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Old 07-22-2011, 10:35 PM   #59
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I know this works
Any reason you ignored the question I asked?

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...............

How long have you followed this strategy (not backtesting, but actually buying and selling based on these indicators) and how is it working for you?
I have an open mind but there seems to be a lack of first-hand data. Can you supply some?
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Old 07-22-2011, 10:40 PM   #60
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Hilarious. You have a promising second career as a comedian.
Everybody seems to be having a wonderful time making fun of me and any concept of active management. Fine. I have no need to prove anything to you or convince anybody. I know this works -- I know many people who've done it very successfully for many years. If you don't believe it, that's your choice.
Obviously you are all very confident you have the ultimate answer and have no need to consider any alternate ideas. I won't waste any more time trying to discuss or document anything that challenges your dogma.
Well, you have a chance to establish the credibility of your method and perhaps yourself as well.

We see this type of behavior a lot: claim you have a market-beating method, post an example without links and with approximations, pick a strawman benchmark comparison that's easily beat (but rarely used), ignore poster's questions, and move on. Get annoyed when your claims are challenged, offer more anecdotal evidence that would hypothetically support your system, then despair in our disbelief. Maybe a poster or two will take the rest of the board to task for not being welcoming of new ideas, or for being too quick to say "no".

I think your credibility rests upon the documentary evidence, not upon your personal claims. How hard would it be to post a link to a back-tested system like that one? Even the guys at FundVision can provide better support for their methods.

But, hey, your approach is definitely a lot less work.

Like I said, if you want to turn this into a productive conversation then start a thread in the stock-picker's forum and document your claims. Otherwise I'm done here.
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