Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-25-2011, 11:03 AM   #101
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoraM View Post
I do admit to market timing microsoft stock around earnings. Buy about 3 weeks before earnings, sell the day of earnings. Have done this for a profit about 10 times...eventually it will stop working I guess.
How was the experience during their Skype acquisition
__________________

__________________
keeleyxt is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-25-2011, 02:27 PM   #102
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 719
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
When I see systems that depend on a moving average, I generally wonder why that specific moving average period was chosen. 200 days is a typical moving average used by "technical analysts." Why 200 days? Why not 180 days, or one year?
I'm glad you asked. I just ran across this today.
Briefly: there's nothing magic about 200 days. There's a broad range from 100 days to 225 days that work petty good. (The first row is the plain "today vs. the average". The other rows are for other short-term intervals, of which 50/200 is the most commonly touted.)

The Golden Cross and Other Lookbacks « MarketSci Blog
Attached Images
File Type: gif 20100711-03.gif (52.2 KB, 10 views)
__________________

__________________
rayvt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 03:39 PM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,904
Stocks see worst day in 8 weeks today...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/market...ednesday_n.htm

Hmmm..awfully quiet here for a market timing strategy thread...
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 05:27 PM   #104
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post
Stocks see worst day in 8 weeks today...

Stocks down again; Dow drops 1.6% as debt deadline looms - USATODAY.com

Hmmm..awfully quiet here for a market timing strategy thread...
It's suppose to be quiet. I'm aiming for 1 trade every 4 years or so.
Otherwise, buy-hold. Timing doesn't have to mean hyperactive trading and so you still get some unpleasant drawdowns and there is pain .
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 06:52 PM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post
Stocks see worst day in 8 weeks today...

Stocks down again; Dow drops 1.6% as debt deadline looms - USATODAY.com

Hmmm..awfully quiet here for a market timing strategy thread...
Not to worry . . . .GaryInCO's got a system that tells us when to worry. It's bullish.

Just ragging you a bit Gary. No system's gonna correctly call every bump or even enough of them, in time, to make a difference.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 07:40 PM   #106
Recycles dryer sheets
Aeowyn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Scotts Hill, TN
Posts: 105
The bulk of my investments are buy and hold. But there seems to be a lot of fear in the market right now over the US debt issue... I moved moved $1K from cash into stock funds. If the market continues to be scared, I'll continue to move my "opportunity money" into the market.

When the market is happy again (most likely either because something actually gets settled on the debt issue or because Aug 2 comes with no debt ceiling increase and it doesn't turn out to be as catastrophic as thought), then I'll move some money out of the market and back into my opportunity bucket.

It really wasn't that long ago the market seemed happy - seemingly un-phased by the US debt issue. Just last Friday I moved some money from a fund I want to reduce my exposure to - to my opportunity fund. That fund was within 1% of its high for the year when I sold and has since dropped over 3%.
__________________
Aeowyn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 06:43 PM   #107
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 76
In case anyone is wondering: the timing system I described looks at the market only once a month. As of the end of July it was still well above the 12-month average -- clearly still in bull mode.

After the carnage of the last two weeks, the market has moved well below the average. But even if this was the end of the month -- which it's not -- the system would still be in bull mode. The HIGH of the month has to be below the average to switch to bear mode, and the high of August is above the average, so the system cannot switch to bear mode at the end of August. If the market went sideways or down from here, then it would probably switch to bear at the end of September.
Attached Images
File Type: gif 110804.gif (7.4 KB, 209 views)
__________________
GaryInCO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 06:55 PM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
I think the 200 day moving average for the SP500 has been crossed. That system is notorious for whipsaws.

We are seeing the risk in the Equity Risk Premium -- and it's no fun.
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 09:40 PM   #109
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 103
Generally speaking, I find most B&H (w or w/o rebalancing) vs. "market timing" debates on the net confusing, because most will usually defend the B&H side yet, in practice, they market time.

The average person who claims to be a B/H usually has a siginficantly different asset allocation than he/she did just 3 years ago. And I'm not talking about any sort of mild "age adjustment" like 1%/year for age. In short, many will talk-the-talk, but few walk-the-walk.

What's happening right now with the markets will provide a great example of my point. Within the next 2-3 months, probably a very significant percentage of claimed "B&H'ers" will reallocate their asset allocation with a more than 10% change in stock/bond/cash equivalents one way or the other. And that would be market timing.

So Gary, they seem to be mostly against you if you go by the words, but if you go by the actions, don't feel so bad. You're most certainly in the majority, I promise you. Now to be clear, I don't mean that they use your particular moving average scheme, or whatever that is your selling, but I'm just referring to the common practice of making statistically significant adjustments to one's asset allocation at least once per 5 years, for example.

Don't get me wrong, though. I actually endorse long-term timing that takes into consideration the world climate and market valuation tools, and making mild-to-moderate asset allocation adjustments based on those. So does well respected asset allocators such as Bernstein (source: The Investor's Manifesto). So I'm not pointing fingers. Rather, I'm just being in the minority that admits I make portfolio adjustments from time-to-time and am aware that disqualifies me from being a true B&H.
__________________
slazenger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 09:51 PM   #110
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
Quote:
Originally Posted by slazenger View Post
Generally speaking, I find most B&H (w or w/o rebalancing) vs. "market timing" debates on the net confusing, because most will usually defend the B&H side yet, in practice, they market time.
That's because B&H and rebalance is simple, but not easy. We tend to be our own worst enemies when it comes to investing. While I admit my own anecdotal experience mimics yours it is still, after all, anecdotal. There was a thread on Bogleheads that queried where had all the BH advocates gone as so many "BH is dead", "This time it's different", and market timing threads were posted during the height of the crash. The upshot was essentially they were still there - but weary of posting the mantra day after day.

DD
__________________
At 54% of FIRE target
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 09:59 PM   #111
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,149
Quote:
Originally Posted by DblDoc View Post
There was a thread on Bogleheads that queried where had all the BH advocates gone as so many "BH is dead", "This time it's different", and market timing threads were posted during the height of the crash. The upshot was essentially they were still there - but weary of posting the mantra day after day.

DD
+1

I've not had a warm reception when suggesting everyone stay calm in the midst of a market sell-off - even when I'm only speaking to myself in the mirror.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 10:22 PM   #112
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 103
Quote:
Originally Posted by DblDoc View Post
That's because B&H and rebalance is simple, but not easy. We tend to be our own worst enemies when it comes to investing. While I admit my own anecdotal experience mimics yours it is still, after all, anecdotal. There was a thread on Bogleheads that queried where had all the BH advocates gone as so many "BH is dead", "This time it's different", and market timing threads were posted during the height of the crash. The upshot was essentially they were still there - but weary of posting the mantra day after day.
Woah, I think you overlooked the part where I said most would say they are B&H. If you add up the number of B&H in this thread, they are clearly in the majority.

My point was, if you were to judge by actual investment actions, most would be market timers, at least based on the way I defined it. I just by action and observation, not by words. And I personally believe my observations ARE representative of what people do. So if you feel your similar observations are merely anecdotal, then you're entitled to, but I don't agree with that.

One would have to go digging through other threads to find some of these B&H posters' asset allocation adjustments. I don't have that much time on me.
__________________
slazenger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 10:56 PM   #113
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
Quote:
Originally Posted by slazenger View Post
And I personally believe my observations ARE representative of what people do.
And with that you get iggyized...

DD
__________________
At 54% of FIRE target
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 11:19 PM   #114
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,299
This is interesting, but based on some of my own studies, and my 'gut feel', I can't help but think that any back-tested system is just data mining.

I'm pretty sure that if you gave a programmer a chart of past results of red, black, and green on a roulette wheel, they could pull out some 'winning' algorithms that would fit that data set. It would be unlikely to be worth anything for future spins of the wheel.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 11:45 PM   #115
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,620
Quote:
Originally Posted by slazenger View Post
The average person who claims to be a B/H usually has a siginficantly different asset allocation than he/she did just 3 years ago. And I'm not talking about any sort of mild "age adjustment" like 1%/year for age. In short, many will talk-the-talk, but few walk-the-walk.
I wonder how many would like to be B&H, but there's too many new products (especially sector funds or fixed-payout funds) or people find out that their comfort zones aren't working.

After nine years of ER, spouse and I are just settling into an asset-allocation comfort zone. We passed through a lot of iterations to get there, too. We would never have had the time (let alone the interest or initiative) to figure this out during our working years.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2011, 10:09 AM   #116
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
...(snip)
I'm pretty sure that if you gave a programmer a chart of past results of red, black, and green on a roulette wheel, they could pull out some 'winning' algorithms that would fit that data set. It would be unlikely to be worth anything for future spins of the wheel.

-ERD50
I've thought a lot about this and looked at a lot of data. The world economy is more complex then that little ball in the roulette wheel. With the roulette wheel we can basically calculate the odds, so the analogy with the economy breaks down.

One way to tackle this is to compare financial instruments and make bets (we like to call these investments because we are rational creatures ) based on their relative attractiveness versus past historical data. Like comparing stock & bond returns, yield curve steepness, etc. Then you can use some momentum measures to avoid only some declining markets. The bear markets you can avoid are those that slowly deteriorate. The fast decliners like the Oct 1987 crash or the 1998 LTCM panic just become painful buy-hold periods.

Will this be a sharp declining panic or a slow rolloff type decline like in the last 2 bad markets of the last decade? I don't know that but will watch the trend on a monthly basis.
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2011, 11:16 AM   #117
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50

I'm pretty sure that if you gave a programmer a chart of past results of red, black, and green on a roulette wheel, they could pull out some 'winning' algorithms that would fit that data set. It would be unlikely to be worth anything for future spins of the wheel.

-ERD50
I've thought a lot about this and looked at a lot of data. The world economy is more complex then that little ball in the roulette wheel. With the roulette wheel we can basically calculate the odds, so the analogy with the economy breaks down.
True, they are different. But my point was that in any data set, one will find patterns if they look hard enough. Do those patterns have any predictive value, or is it just co-incidence?

So does the approach mentioned in this thread really have predictive value, or is it just a back test which found patterns in the past data set? I don't know, but I've seen so much of the latter that I remain skeptical.

edit/add:
Quote:
The fast decliners like the Oct 1987 crash or the 1998 LTCM panic just become painful buy-hold periods.
Painful for B&H? The market was up for 1987 (6%) and 1998 (29%). If I could get the average of those going forward, then call me a masochist! Bring on THAT kind of pain! What would have happened if one tried to side-step those? They'd probably miss a run up.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2011, 11:48 AM   #118
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
Quote:
Originally Posted by GaryInCO View Post
In case anyone is wondering: the timing system I described looks at the market only once a month. As of the end of July it was still well above the 12-month average -- clearly still in bull mode.

After the carnage of the last two weeks, the market has moved well below the average. But even if this was the end of the month -- which it's not -- the system would still be in bull mode. The HIGH of the month has to be below the average to switch to bear mode, and the high of August is above the average, so the system cannot switch to bear mode at the end of August. If the market went sideways or down from here, then it would probably switch to bear at the end of September.
So where are you putting your investments?
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2011, 11:51 AM   #119
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 102
Slazenger - B&H here and I do admit that I market time. However, to what degree is the question. Currently, I'm at 90/10 (equity/bond) allocation b/c I believe, in the big picture scheme of things, equities will go up. When Dow reaches 2007 high, I might move to 80/20 allocation. Yes, I'm shifting my portfolio based on the market but I don't consider myself true market timer. If I'm shifting 50% of my portfolio based on show SPY is doing... heck even 30%... I would consider that a true market timer and I don't think majority of the board members are like this. So to say that Gary's in the majority, I disagree with you. Actually, I don't know if Gary's the 30%-50% in and out guy but that's the feeling I'm getting.

For some people, it takes good and bad times to know your true comfort level but this is not market timing. It's just finding out about yourself.
__________________
HatePayingTaxes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2011, 07:40 AM   #120
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,268
OK, market timers. Here you go:
News Headlines

Time to buy.
__________________

__________________
utrecht is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
NUA Tax Strategy - $88k / year mmgoebe FIRE and Money 12 07-07-2011 09:03 AM
Money Market funds in potential danger. clifp FIRE and Money 22 07-06-2011 07:10 AM
State Income Tax Strategy - CA and WA Da Nag FIRE and Money 8 07-05-2011 05:29 PM
When it comes to photos, timing makes the shot REWahoo Other topics 0 07-01-2011 02:19 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:25 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.