Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Do you think he is right?
Yes 25 19.38%
No 104 80.62%
Voters: 129. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-17-2009, 03:24 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Isn't that another way of saying "I plan on buying high"?
I think I'll have to be.
__________________

__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-17-2009, 10:56 PM   #22
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 223
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Isn't that another way of saying "I plan on buying high"?
Bull markets last for years. If I miss the beginning of it to possibly avoid a big 30% loss, then it is well worth it. And I'd be buying relatively low compared to where the market is going to go.
__________________

__________________
inquisitive is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2009, 09:46 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,199
That system would work fine if every bull market lasted for years. Unfortunately, a big drop can occur at any time, including the day after the market has "established itself in a positive direction."
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2009, 11:19 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
IndependentlyPoor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by inquisitive View Post
Bull markets last for years.
Unfortunately, bear markets can last for years too, and my biggest fear right now is a repeat of the stagflation of the 70s.
__________________
IndependentlyPoor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2009, 05:16 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,199
If you aren't superstitious, you can highlight the text below for a secret message:
The market has gone up 6.5% in five days.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2009, 11:31 AM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
My last stock purchase was March 2, 2009. I thought I'd be buying more the last few months but the size of this rally has kept me on the sidelines. Besides, the rally has done a pretty good job of rebalancing my portfolio all on its own.

I'm waiting for the big pull back because I've got some more "buying low" to do. Here's hoping I have to wait a long time.


Quote:
Originally Posted by inquisitive View Post
Bull markets last for years. If I miss the beginning of it to possibly avoid a big 30% loss . . .
Well the market (SPX) is up 41% since its March low. You may have avoided a 30% loss, buy you're still 30% poorer than you would have been had you bought stocks earlier this year.
__________________
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:27 AM   #27
Full time employment: Posting here.
Helena's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 643
Many months ago I heard two different financial experts
say there was a stock market rally coming this summer...
and it will fool a lot of people into thinking the economic
crisis is over... but it is only the eye of the hurricane...
they advised to sell what you need to sell while you can...
during the summer rally.



~
__________________
Helena is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:33 AM   #28
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Looks like the bears have awakened from hibernation...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:37 AM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Looks like the bears have awakened from hibernation...
I love Yogi and Boo Boo....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:39 AM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,438
No, there are always some bears around.

In another thread, I reported how some investment firms like Goldman Sachs went bullish. I think Credit Suisse also did. On the other hand Morgan Stanley said to sell into the rally.

Now, Morgan Stanley just had a really bad quarter, while GS did well. I wonder if their own performance would affect their respective outlook.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:41 AM   #31
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
GS has made a lot more correct calls on market movement than just about any of the investment bankers. Makes you wonder, given the ties some in the Treasury have had to Goldman...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:42 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,515
Quote:
Originally Posted by inquisitive View Post
Bull markets last for years. If I miss the beginning of it to possibly avoid a big 30% loss, then it is well worth it. And I'd be buying relatively low compared to where the market is going to go.
The kind of long term multi-year bull market you are talking about probably won't commence until 2017, if these 18-20 year bull-bear cycles have any merit.

In the meantime, the market can easily go up 50% or more from the lows, then crash again, over and over.

If you rebalance periodically, you can still have your portfolio grow even in the face of a roller coaster market. That's the only way I know how to invest in the kind of environment we are probably in right now — a mutli-year bear market with strong "bear-market" rallies followed by deep corrections.

I don't think anyone is able to recognize for sure when one of those multi-year bull markets has started. I think you are much more likely to get sucked in at the top if you wait for the rally to become "well-established".

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:46 AM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
If you rebalance periodically, you can still have your portfolio grow even in the face of a roller coaster market. That's the only way I know how to invest in the kind of environment we are probably in right now — a mutli-year bear market with strong "bear-market" rallies followed by deep corrections.

I don't think anyone is able to recognize for sure when one of those multi-year bull markets has started. I think you are much more likely to get sucked in at the top if you wait for one.

Audrey
Ding ding ding...

I always take the middle of the road, never 100% out nor 100% in. My stock AA varies from 80% in 2007 (due to the stock rising) to less than 40% in 2008 when I sold (and also due to stock dropping).

Trying to shoot for 100% right may lead you to being 100% wrong. I can live well being only 50% right, thank you.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:48 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Rebalance now..........harvest gains.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:49 AM   #35
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
I don't think anyone is able to recognize for sure when one of those multi-year bull markets has started. I think you are much more likely to get sucked in at the top if you wait for the rally to become "well-established".
Methinks the lady doth speaketh the truth.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 10:52 AM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Rebalance now..........harvest gains.........
Tell that to someone holding CDs...


Seriously, as I hold many stocks, I have tried to play sector rotations to go from red-hot ones to the cooler ones that are late to the party.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 11:30 AM   #37
Full time employment: Posting here.
Helena's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 643
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post

Looks like the bears have awakened from hibernation...

I was warned about posting here because I had been
questioning the buy and hold philosophy and had been
advocating a non-equity position before stocks crashed.
When I was proven right, I became persona non grata here.

I am back again.. briefly.. to post what I posted above...
about selling what you need to sell during this eye of the
hurricane [summer rally]. Just another word to the wise.



~
__________________
Helena is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 11:53 AM   #38
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena View Post
I was warned about posting here because I had been
questioning the buy and hold philosophy and had been
advocating a non-equity position before stocks crashed.
When I was proven right, I became persona non grata here.




~
Well, last time you posted that buy and hold was dead was on 11/12/2008. My buy and hold portfolio is up almost 16% since then. So perhaps we shouldn't stick a fork in it just yet...
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 11:55 AM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,515
Even though we avoided a depression (whew!) are coming out of a very nasty recession (yes, we are or will be by the end of the summer), the subsequent economic recovery is likely to be very sub-par. I can see the market rallying strongly (and maybe that is what is happening now) as the evidence of end-of-recession mounts. And then selling off when the weakness of the recovery becomes apparent and investors become disappointed and disillusioned.

Anyway, that is what I think is going to happen this year.

Regardless of my opinions or attempts at prognostication, I practice periodic rebalancing of my asset allocation as the market goes though its cycles. In other words, my predictions have no influence on my investing behavior.

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 12:00 PM   #40
Full time employment: Posting here.
Helena's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 643
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post


Well, last time you posted that buy and hold was dead was on 11/12/2008.

Why don't you post the dates of all the other times before that ?


Here are a couple... the entire topic here is interesting.

ugh almost ready to give in to panic

ugh almost ready to give in to panic


~
__________________

__________________
Helena is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
End of Year 1 of ER walkinwood FIRE and Money 6 05-05-2009 08:48 AM
44 and Retiring at End of Year silvertip Hi, I am... 7 04-08-2008 05:58 PM
As a distraction from today's market crash... brewer12345 Other topics 34 03-09-2008 03:19 PM
Stock Market Crash This Decade? Tommy_Dolitte Young Dreamers 8 08-12-2004 06:13 PM
BOOMERS = MARKET CRASH? FritzRick FIRE and Money 48 06-03-2004 05:27 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:28 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.