Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Do you think he is right?
Yes 25 19.38%
No 104 80.62%
Voters: 129. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-23-2009, 12:06 PM   #41
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena View Post
Why don't you post the dates of all the other times before that ?


~
Because I have other (better) things to do
__________________

__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-23-2009, 12:09 PM   #42
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
That stuff about past performance being no indication of future results is coming to mind. Whether someone was "right" or "wrong" in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future...
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 02:33 PM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
Helena made a good call. It may only represent a stance, which will sometimes be good, sometimes not. As far as I know she didn't post a method by which she arrived at this position.

Many of the others are sure that their stance is better than Helena's- why I am not certain. Helena obviously has more of the money that she had on July 23, 208 than those of us with more pro-stock views have.

To me this market is pure speculation, and most of the bullish arguments are pure wishful thinking. Only 4 months ago many people here were on the verge of throwing in the towel, now many are bullish. Yet the S&P is more than 1/3 higher. Are business and credit conditions more than 1/3 better? Or was the market wrong then; or is the market wrong now? And if we are indexers, thus implicitly relying on an effecient market, how is it that the market can be so wrong?

Same for bearish arguments. They may make more sense on the surface to some of us, but then why is the market powering upward?

Or are we mostly sheeple, unable to step back from whichever way the crowd is stampeding most recently?

Only the Shadow knows.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 02:51 PM   #44
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Some were right, many were wrong. What people don't like is harping on it or gloating when you happen to be right. Now when people explain thoroughly why they make certain decision it might be helpful. For example, a couple have said in this thread that the market has gone way up it is time to take some money off the table. No explanation for their position. I suppose there could be some sense to that using the concept of regression to the mean. But it is so hard to know when and making a mistake has its consequences. Markets go up suddenly and down suddenly. Missing that up costs you big.

So I am with Audrey on strategy. Helena was very lucky but she does have the issue of when to go back in. Maybe she is rich enough that she never has to.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:10 PM   #45
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Even though we avoided a depression (whew!) are coming out of a very nasty recession (yes, we are or will be by the end of the summer), the subsequent economic recovery is likely to be very sub-par. I can see the market rallying strongly (and maybe that is what is happening now) as the evidence of end-of-recession mounts. And then selling off when the weakness of the recovery becomes apparent and investors become disappointed and disillusioned.

Anyway, that is what I think is going to happen this year.

Regardless of my opinions or attempts at prognostication, I practice periodic rebalancing of my asset allocation as the market goes though its cycles. In other words, my predictions have no influence on my investing behavior.

Audrey

I have a similar view.
I'm guessing 4th qtr 2010 is the time frame for a large decline and then a sustainded bull from there.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:13 PM   #46
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha View Post
Some were right, many were wrong. What people don't like is harping on it or gloating when you happen to be right.
Agreed. It's one thing, whether through luck, prescience or due diligence, to be right. It's another to come up to people licking their wounds and keep pouring salt into those wounds by reminding them that they screwed up.

In late 2007, I was at around a 70/30 allocation. By November 2008 I was down to around 55/45 before a rebalancing to 60/40. In the bottom in early March I was back down to 56/44 and have now returned to 64/36.

Since my new target is 60/40, I think some of my equity asset classes may need to have a little taken off the table in a rebalancing. I think I'll crunch those numbers tonight. The recent swoon taught me that (a) my risk tolerance isn't quite what I thought it was, and (b) After playing a lot with FIREcalc I learned I don't really need to take as much risk as I was taking, hence the reduction from 70/30 to 60/40 as a target.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:24 PM   #47
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Only 4 months ago many people here were on the verge of throwing in the towel, now many are bullish. Yet the S&P is more than 1/3 higher. Are business and credit conditions more than 1/3 better? Or was the market wrong then; or is the market wrong now? And if we are indexers, thus implicitly relying on an effecient market, how is it that the market can be so wrong?
Well, I think it is time I take a close look at my AA and see if any re-balancing is in order. This has been quite a run up.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:24 PM   #48
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,453
The market goes crazy on the way up, and also on the way down. Are we at nose-bleed valuation now? Same as many others, I don't think so.

About market "efficiency", as I own and like to watch individual stocks, I have seen absurd prices at both the top and bottom that made me dizzy. The 2-to-1 move of the index is nothing compared to individual stocks that move 5-to-1. I am not even talking about stocks like Bear Stearns or Lehman that deserved their fate. It is fascinating to watch, though I am not a day trader.

About investor's sentiment, it has always been true that we tend to remember the most recent experience. In 2007, being used to seeing stocks at such high values, we wouldn't believe that many would soon drop to 1/2, 1/5, or even 1/10 of their high water mark. Some were true bubbles that deserved to be popped. I owned such tech stocks in 2000. But so many "innocent" stocks got crushed in the process. Market efficiency? Hah! Then, after the market has suffered an unbelievable drop, we get scared when it recovers a bit.

About following the herd, for every seller at the March bottom, there is a buyer. Some of us were lucky or gutsy, should I say, to be among the buyers.

The future will tell if the time to sell is now. However, I am not selling, except for individual stocks that I think are getting too far ahead from the pack.

I'd like to add that I always try to keep a sense of humor. Despite my disagreement with Buffet on a few political things, I like his ability to crack jokes in the midst of an economic maelstrom. You might say he was rich enough to laugh through all this, but remember that a few other billionaires got wiped out due to their greediness, while Buffet's conservatism allowed him to survive anything. And Buffet was not always this rich.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:45 PM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha View Post
Some were right, many were wrong. What people don't like is harping on it or gloating when you happen to be right.
It is not a behavior calculated to make friends, that is for sure. Yet there is value in it- for example, if we hear this and think "Oh why was I so exposed?" then we have learned something. We have learned that we had grown too exposed to abrupt down movements for our own good. I think the concept of risk tolerance is flawed. The risk we assume should be the lower of what we could handle psychologically if we imagine very negative circumstances, and what our actual lifestyle and financial circumstances could accommodate. Some of us are very fearful of $ losses, so we should not invest in things with high variability or risk of loss. Others actually are drawn to risk- but that doesn't mean that we can afford it. I for example- people talk about cutting back under adversity, but it would hard for me to fund my life on less than $40,000 after tax. I sometimes realize that I like risk, so I try to throttle that back if I can because my actual circumstances, post divorce and long retired and without a pension, basically mean that I would be in deep .... if I truly lost a hunk, and income went down at the same time.

The board as a whole has a conventional and bullish leaning. Although a "he-he I told you so" post it is annoying, these can actually help to balance the overall tendency to "Whee!"

Six months ago the board was full of references to Milevsky and others who believe that there is little or no place for stocks in a retiree’s financial plan. But when the market heads back up, many of us (definitely including me) are likely to think, "What was the big deal? I'll probably have it all back in a few more months."

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 03:59 PM   #50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
Helena, don't be discouraged. I posted once that a lady financial strategist on Squawk Box said this period would be just like 1932-37 and got creamed. 1932-37 was a "W" shaped period. I tend to stick with it. We'll see...we'll see. One of us on this board HAS to be right, so we will eventually find out which one of us is...in the future.
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 04:01 PM   #51
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
The market goes crazy on the way up, and also on the way down. Are we at nose-bleed valuation now? Same as many others, I don't think so.
Of course since when should one only adopt a cautious posture when "we are at nosebleed valuation"? Maybe there is a weak assumption in that. Who said that stocks can't go way way down when they are at less than nosebleed valuation? What defines nosebleed valuation?

Most of the public commenters who use data and not just blather (PE10 or similarly averaged valuation measures state (and give data) to show that current valuations are about at the long term average.

So, all other things being equal, we might expect stock prices to grow with the growth in earnings, not aided or hindered by PE expansion or compression.

In today's conditions, does that rate a larger than usual equity allocation, smaller than usual, or just about medium?

Everyone will have his or her own answer, but it is not a trivial quesion.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 04:44 PM   #52
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
There are many many people who post on this board who do not have much in equities; you didn't hear from them when the equities were strong and you didn't hear from most of them during the past year, either. I'm glad Helena is happy with her investment decisions, but that doesn't make her (or anyone else who's thrilled with their own investment results) an oracle. No one should change an investment strategy because someone touts a "cash is king" mantra, or someone has been successful in real estate, or someone has cornered the beaver cheese market.

Personally I am waiting for the great beanie baby rebound....
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 05:08 PM   #53
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
That beanie baby inventor was smarter than all of us. He had all those suckers..I mean, "investors in collectibles" really believing they had something worth collecting. What a scam artist! And who would ever believe that, anyway? Lots of folks did. I think he gained his money the Mary Kay way: on the backs of hardworking but uneducated folks. Sorry to say it, but that's the way I saw it.
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 05:22 PM   #54
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
He created a product for which there was demand. It became a fad and the rest is history.
Just because someone participates in a fad doesn't mean they were scammed or are uneducated.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 05:24 PM   #55
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,453
Ha, there is nothing in your post that I disagree with. I think the current valuation is fair, and many stocks pay quite decent dividends compared to CDs. The real question is then, looking ahead, are things getting better? I think company profits won't get worse, or mainly, not getting to be in such dire situation as presumed in the March 2009 bottom, even if unemployment remains bad. I keep reminding myself that the market always tries to look ahead. When things don't turn out as bad or rosy as they seem, there are violent corrections.

So, one should always be cautious. Except for the younger members who still have income to keep DCA'ing in the face of a W-shaped recovery, most people here do not have a 100% equity portfolio. We all have various exposures from 40% on up to 70%, if I recall correctly, according to our own risk level. The extreme position of holding all CDs or Treasury has less than 1/5 of the membership here, if I could venture a guess. Some still believe in deflation. I tend to side with Buffet when he said in a recent interview that there is no chance of that.

And by the way, our outlook on the economy tends to be affected by our political inclination. As said in previous posts, some of my close friends hated Clinton when he first took office. Being Libertarians, they believed that he would bring the country to ruinous inflation, hence went to all gold in the early 90s. I won't repeat what happened to their portfolio. I like to take the middle road. Being a centrist, with admittedly a good-sized bias on the conservative side, I still did not think any administration or Congress could totally destroy the US, or the world economy, and kept my stocks.

So, 100% stock or 100% CD or Treasury or 100% gold is never my position. Works for me so far. I am still down 19% from top of market in Oct 2007, but that money, I would never had if I weren't in the market in the first place.

I think that people tend to forget that they are free to manage their money the way they like. So, why do people get hot under the collar? Right or wrong, nobody cares about your money but yourself. My friends went 100% gold. Did I call them stupid and make fun of them? Let me say that we are still good friends, and they have reverted to owning stocks for a few years now, by their own cognizance.


PS. Regarding the Buffet recent interview, he said that we are faced with inflation down the road, but that is the price to pay. He said it was like rescuing a man in quick sand by using a rope to yank him out with a pickup. Sure, he gets dislocated shoulders, but the alternative would be a whole lot worse!
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 05:26 PM   #56
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,410
1974 - ballpark 60/40 transferred to NOLA Denver hadn't made it to the Superbowl yet.

2009 - ballpark 65/35. Retired 15 years.

Soooo when are we gonna talk about something important like the Saint's finally making it to the big show?

I mean a little market fluctuation here and there over the years is one thing but the Saint's in 4th quarter can be a real heart stopper.



heh heh heh - I have no memory as to where I picked up on the '60/40 policy portfolio', so called 'traditional pension fund' and have rued many a day over the decades all the portfolio's(in hindsight) that beat the pants off what I owned - but in the end it got the job done.

Now about those dang Saint's! A few guys a the doughnut shop have old never say die Chiefs hats on - but at least they made it once. .

Maybe one great Norwegian widow stock to console me.
__________________
unclemick is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 05:41 PM   #57
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
That beanie baby inventor was smarter than all of us. He had all those suckers..I mean, "investors in collectibles" really believing they had something worth collecting. What a scam artist! And who would ever believe that, anyway? Lots of folks did. I think he gained his money the Mary Kay way: on the backs of hardworking but uneducated folks. Sorry to say it, but that's the way I saw it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
He created a product for which there was demand. It became a fad and the rest is history.
Just because someone participates in a fad doesn't mean they were scammed or are uneducated.
+1 to Zathras. Geez Orchidflower, is every capitalist a bad person that just steals from others? He made a product people liked, they bought it. If some were speculating in them, well that's their own business.

My wife and kids had a bunch of 'em. They were kinda cute, and ~ $5 as I recall. The guy was smart, because $5 makes it a very affordable treat/indulgence.

We need a govt agency to select each and every purchase we make. We all are obviously just too stupid to avoid "scams".

He probably ended up paying a lot of taxes too. Yep, let's get rid of that top 2% of earners... bad people (until we count on them to pay 90% of the taxes).

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 06:17 PM   #58
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
If someone participates in a fad because they like it (or whatever other reason they have), well, if they enjoy it then more power to them. But this beanie baby company tried to get the public to buy that they were actually purchasing "collectibles." THAT was the scam they were perpetrating. But if someone likes beanie babies, thinks they are cute or whatever, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Just don't think they are "collectibles", because they aren't and never will be.
Personally, I have a friend who owns a gift shop who sold beanie babies, and a friend who bought them by the dozen for her mother who collected them. I'm not a beanie baby hater. They're cute. I'm just finding the beanie baby company guilty of misleading the uninformed about what a real collectible is...and it ain't beanie babies as you must be aware of by now. That's all....not knocking your love of beanie babies at all.
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 06:38 PM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post


But when the market heads back up, many of us (definitely including me) are likely to think, "What was the big deal? I'll probably have it all back in a few more months."

Ha
Wheeeeeeee! Sorry, had to say it. But if the DOW gets close to 10k, I got to believe there will be a pretty big sell off. I'll probably be one of the one's doing the selling.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2009, 06:41 PM   #60
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
... Just don't think they are "collectibles", because they aren't and never will be.
Things become collectables because lots of people enjoy them and thus... collect them
So just what is it in your definition that makes a collectable, a colectable?
__________________

__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
End of Year 1 of ER walkinwood FIRE and Money 6 05-05-2009 08:48 AM
44 and Retiring at End of Year silvertip Hi, I am... 7 04-08-2008 05:58 PM
As a distraction from today's market crash... brewer12345 Other topics 34 03-09-2008 03:19 PM
Stock Market Crash This Decade? Tommy_Dolitte Young Dreamers 8 08-12-2004 06:13 PM
BOOMERS = MARKET CRASH? FritzRick FIRE and Money 48 06-03-2004 05:27 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:25 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.