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Old 07-23-2009, 06:43 PM   #61
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I make most of my investment decisions by gut instinct . I've been wrong but I've also been right . I've read most of the investing gurus books but my guts wins out . Right now I think this rally is as Finance Dude says " A sucker rally ". A lot of people bailed out of the market during the carnage and they are now sitting with cash making squat and wondering why they do not jump back in . So even with the economy still in the toilet they want to make money .
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:59 PM   #62
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Some still believe in deflation. I tend to side with Buffet when he said in a recent interview that there is no chance of that.
Couldn't agree more NW-B. About a year ago I quipped that long term deflation in America is as likely as spaceships on the White House Lawn. I think I was censured for this.

But it's true- deflation just is not possible with our speculative minded population and institutions, and our very Keynesian admistration and congress. I feel that there is essentially no cost to leaving that particular base unguarded.

Ha
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Old 07-23-2009, 08:01 PM   #63
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I make most of my investment decisions by gut instinct . I've been wrong but I've also been right . I've read most of the investing gurus books but my guts wins out . Right now I think this rally is as Finance Dude says " A sucker rally ". A lot of people bailed out of the market during the carnage and they are now sitting with cash making squat and wondering why they do not jump back in . So even with the economy still in the toilet they want to make money .
Money not being lost in unwise purchases is money being made, even if the current yield on the cash balances is zero.

Ha
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Old 07-24-2009, 08:02 AM   #64
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Well said, haha. People forget that basic lesson.
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Old 07-24-2009, 08:12 AM   #65
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Just saw Buffet on TV. He says that although he doesn't know where the market is going in the next few days, he'd rather have stocks at Dow 9000 than long-term Treasuries. Why? He mentions inflation again, and reiterates that it is the price to pay to rescue the economy from the housing bubble.

Surely, some will say Buffet would say that because he has loads of stocks. But Berkshire Hathaway always has a huge cash hoard in the tens of billion. Just because the Oracle believes in stocks doesn't mean he doesn't keep some cash handy.
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Old 07-24-2009, 08:50 AM   #66
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Money not being lost in unwise purchases is money being made, even if the current yield on the cash balances is zero.

Ha


Very true . Certainly the people who got out of the market before the crash saved their stash but a lot of them may be thinking about tip toeing back in .Which should hopefully add to this rally for a little while .
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Old 07-24-2009, 08:56 AM   #67
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And here's what Bill Gross, the bond king, has to say for people who hold no stock:
Investors should buy emerging-market currencies to protect themselves against the risk that U.S. policy makers will allow the dollar to slide should they lack the skill to “drain the system of emergency liquidity at the appropriate time,” Pimco said.
No matter whether you are a bear or a bull, diversify is the name of the game. Diversify, baby, diversify...
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Old 07-24-2009, 09:14 AM   #68
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I was thinking about why the market is so unpredictable.

Its moves are caused by investors' buy and sell decisions, and I'll bet that a significant number of those investors are making decisions based on superstition, technical analysis, emotion, and sayings ("As goes January, so goes the year.", "Sell in May and go away," "If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall").

If so, it's no wonder that it's unpredictable.
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Old 07-24-2009, 09:22 AM   #69
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I agree Al. I do not believe that the market is rational.
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Old 07-24-2009, 09:54 AM   #70
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Rational? Irrational? Efficient? Inefficient?

I no longer care why, only that it goes up and down a lot. A lot more than it should. And it makes me angry.

AND HOW DO I PROFIT? Just something an ER'ed guy to do for a challenge.

Tough quest, and I am still trying. My trade execution, er rebalancing, is far from perfect, but it has not ruined me yet, and even provided me some reasonable gains. I will play this game until I get bored or get too far behind W2R with her MFs, then go psst Wellesley
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Old 07-24-2009, 10:10 AM   #71
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Rational? Irrational? Efficient? Inefficient?

I no longer care why, only that it goes up and down a lot. A lot more than it should. And it makes me angry.
Me too, or it makes me happy and wanting to utter a little "Wheee!" But since I have an asset allocation I really don't buy and sell other than to rebalance when I dare. I just sit back and watch (happily, this week).

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AND HOW DO I PROFIT? Just something an ER'ed guy to do for a challenge.

Tough quest, and I am still trying. My trade execution, er rebalancing, is far from perfect, but it has not ruined me yet, and even provided me some reasonable gains. I will play this game until I get bored or get too far behind W2R with her MFs, then go psst Wellesley
I love my Wellesley! The dividends just keep coming. Even though they are down a little this last time, it's not enough to worry me much.
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Old 07-24-2009, 02:13 PM   #72
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Money not being lost in unwise purchases is money being made, even if the current yield on the cash balances is zero.

Ha
If that is the case, I have two questions.
1) Is it also the case that: Money not being made in wise purchases is money being lost?
2) Am I making $1000 today if I don't go to the casino and blow $1000 at the blackjack table, and if so, can I claim that as income
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Old 07-24-2009, 03:42 PM   #73
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2) Am I making $1000 today if I don't go to the casino and blow $1000 at the blackjack table, and if so, can I claim that as income
Why? Then you'll have to pay taxes on it, and sometimes, that's not a wise use of dollars <insert your wild and crazy thoughts here>.


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Old 07-24-2009, 03:47 PM   #74
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If that is the case, I have two questions.
1) Is it also the case that: Money not being made in wise purchases is money being lost?
2) Am I making $1000 today if I don't go to the casino and blow $1000 at the blackjack table, and if so, can I claim that as income
Apparently this principle is not for you. ¡Está bien!
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Old 07-27-2009, 04:41 PM   #75
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Rebalance now..........harvest gains.........
That is exactly what I did today....
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Old 07-27-2009, 04:47 PM   #76
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That is exactly what I did today....
Bought some bonds and VEU today to bring my AA to target.

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Old 07-27-2009, 05:17 PM   #77
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S&P500: up 0.3%

My individual stock portion: up 0.5%

My MF portion: up 0.3%

Buy or sell? No. I am holding.
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Old 07-27-2009, 05:36 PM   #78
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I got greedy and it burnt me...

DW's company stock has been on fire lately so we decided to sell some and lock in the gains. The stock was trading at $7.92 and had been on an up trend all morning, so I placed a limit order at $8. When the stock price hit $7.98 it brutaly turned around to end the day below $7.5... Trying to make a few extra dollars ended up costing thousands. Dumb.
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Old 07-27-2009, 05:42 PM   #79
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Who's to say tomorrow you won't feel like a genius when it surges to $8.50?
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Old 07-27-2009, 06:00 PM   #80
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Who's to say tomorrow you won't feel like a genius when it surges to $8.50?
It would take more than that for me to feel like a genius...
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