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market to crash again, down by 35% (S&P 600) by year end, Gary Shilling
Old 07-16-2009, 09:32 AM   #1
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market to crash again, down by 35% (S&P 600) by year end, Gary Shilling

Another profit (deliberate missspell) of doom (by the graveyard). I had a good day yesterday and now this trickles into my bowl of wheaties.

The Market's Going to Crash: Here's What to Buy: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
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Old 07-16-2009, 09:59 AM   #2
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Shotgunner,

This is two threads you've posted regarding bearish forecasts. Are you worried?

Also, this is interesting as well. You added a C to each analysts name.

Shilling became Schilling, Shiller became Schiller. Not sure what to make of that.
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:00 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
Another profit (deliberate missspell) of doom (by the graveyard). I had a good day yesterday and now this trickles into my bowl of wheaties.

The Market's Going to Crash: Here's What to Buy: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus. Gary Shilling doesn't hedge his statements, they were real-time cataloged over many years in Forbes, and he certainly caught the big wave of the last 30 years.

I think I'll go sell some stock this morning- not because of what he said, but because of how we are laughing at him.

I have tended to be disbeliever in his deflation thesis; but then I didn't embrace his dis-inflation thesis when he explained it in the early 80s, so my track record could be a lot better.

Ha
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:04 AM   #4
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I didn't vote because I haven't the slightest idea of what the economy or markets are going to do and there isn't an "I don't know option".
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:09 AM   #5
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....now this trickles into my bowl of wheaties.

....
Reminds me, it's time to stock up on a variety of breakfast foods, I'm clear out of hash and we can always count on Wheaties; breakfast basket should not be all eggs (groan, I'll stop here).

I'm inclined to bet both ways, diversify with new money and think long term.
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:11 AM   #6
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It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus. Gary Shilling doesn't hedge his statements, they were real-time cataloged over many years in Forbes, and he certainly caught the big wave of the last 30 years.

Ha
Forum posts as a contrarian indicator - interesting!
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:11 AM   #7
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First, ya retired at 51 in early '08 and then took quite a beating in first 6 months of ER. Second, I used to work at a place named Schiller Station (maybe there is a reason I instinctively go for that spellin after having typed it a gazillion times)
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:18 AM   #8
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It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus.
Ha, you know making fun of market gurus, illicit car park attendants, variable annuity salesmen and permacurmudgeons is a virtual national pastime on this forum.

Hey, do I see some kids on your grass?
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:26 AM   #9
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I really like Cheerios--can we have a poll about breakfast food investments? Yeah, I know, pancakes would win in a landslide.

I'm going to be a financial guru in my next life as so many people like to make fun of me in this one. But I have to say I like reading all of the articles that people post links to--nothing wrong with getting all sides of the stories. Except about how to get me a young bride in a third world country. Or about the pancake-free diet.
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Old 07-16-2009, 10:34 AM   #10
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Bacon? Balanced index? Pssst - Wellesley?



heh heh heh - agile, mobile and hostile - hang tough folks football season is coming. . I used to know stuff - now I have only strong opinions.
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Old 07-16-2009, 11:28 AM   #11
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I have no idea if he's right. He's been a bear for as long as I can remember. Below is a link to Liz Ann Sonders take on the market. I've always enjoyed lusting over her commentary.

Audio version:
http://www.schwabcontent.com/straigh...ders062909.mp3
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Old 07-16-2009, 11:38 AM   #12
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BTW, we're right about at the point we were at the start of the year. So, if you regretted rebalancing then, you could undo it at this point.
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Old 07-16-2009, 01:30 PM   #13
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Bacon? Balanced index? Pssst - Wellesley?



heh heh heh - agile, mobile and hostile - hang tough folks football season is coming. . I used to know stuff - now I have only strong opinions.
Saints could use some defense, they gotta quit looking at the 2008 Packers defense as a guide.......
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Old 07-16-2009, 01:32 PM   #14
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I don't think anyone knows for sure how throwing trillions of dollars around is going to affect things long-term, but it doesn't look rosy.........
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Old 07-16-2009, 04:14 PM   #15
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I have no idea what is going to happen with the markets but as for breakfast food I like granola .
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Old 07-17-2009, 06:51 AM   #16
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I am not sure at this point that we are in a bull market so I am going to invest in bonds for now and once the market has established itself in the positive direction I'll switch into stocks.
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Old 07-17-2009, 09:20 AM   #17
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the market has established itself in the positive direction
In the entire history of the world, the stock market has never once established itself in the positive direction.
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Old 07-17-2009, 09:28 AM   #18
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... I am going to invest in bonds for now and once the market has established itself in the positive direction I'll switch into stocks.
Isn't that another way of saying "I plan on buying high"?
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Old 07-17-2009, 09:39 AM   #19
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I'm going to continue what I did when the market is going down, up or sideways.
Keep DCAing in and collect the dividends
As for the article referenced by the original poster, I second the request for a 'don't know and it doesn't matter' option.
He may be right, he may not.
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Old 07-17-2009, 02:03 PM   #20
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Canned food is the next big thing.
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