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View Poll Results: Do you think he is right?
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Yes
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19.38% |
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No
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80.62% |
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market to crash again, down by 35% (S&P 600) by year end, Gary Shilling
07-16-2009, 08:32 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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market to crash again, down by 35% (S&P 600) by year end, Gary Shilling
Another profit (deliberate missspell) of doom  (by the graveyard). I had a good day yesterday and now this trickles into my bowl of wheaties.
The Market's Going to Crash: Here's What to Buy: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
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07-16-2009, 08:59 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Jalisco, Mexico
Posts: 1,747
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Shotgunner,
This is two threads you've posted regarding bearish forecasts. Are you worried? 
Also, this is interesting as well. You added a C to each analysts name.
Shilling became Schilling, Shiller became Schiller. Not sure what to make of that. 
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07-16-2009, 09:00 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner
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It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus. Gary Shilling doesn't hedge his statements, they were real-time cataloged over many years in Forbes, and he certainly caught the big wave of the last 30 years.
I think I'll go sell some stock this morning- not because of what he said, but because of how we are laughing at him.
I have tended to be disbeliever in his deflation thesis; but then I didn't embrace his dis-inflation thesis when he explained it in the early 80s, so my track record could be a lot better.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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07-16-2009, 09:04 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
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I didn't vote because I haven't the slightest idea of what the economy or markets are going to do and there isn't an "I don't know option". 
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07-16-2009, 09:09 AM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner
....now this trickles into my bowl of wheaties.
....
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Reminds me, it's time to stock up on a variety of breakfast foods, I'm clear out of hash and we can always count on Wheaties; breakfast basket should not be all eggs (groan, I'll stop here).
I'm inclined to bet both ways, diversify with new money and think long term.
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07-16-2009, 09:11 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Jalisco, Mexico
Posts: 1,747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus. Gary Shilling doesn't hedge his statements, they were real-time cataloged over many years in Forbes, and he certainly caught the big wave of the last 30 years.
Ha
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Forum posts as a contrarian indicator - interesting!
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07-16-2009, 09:11 AM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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First, ya retired at 51 in early '08 and then took quite a beating in first 6 months of ER. Second, I used to work at a place named Schiller Station (maybe there is a reason I instinctively go for that spellin after having typed it a gazillion times)
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
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07-16-2009, 09:18 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
It's always a bad sign when forum members make fun of these gurus.
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Ha, you know making fun of market gurus, illicit car park attendants, variable annuity salesmen and permacurmudgeons is a virtual national pastime on this forum.
Hey, do I see some kids on your grass? 
__________________
Numbers is hard
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07-16-2009, 09:26 AM
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#9
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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I really like Cheerios--can we have a poll about breakfast food investments? Yeah, I know, pancakes would win in a landslide.
I'm going to be a financial guru in my next life as so many people like to make fun of me in this one. But I have to say I like reading all of the articles that people post links to--nothing wrong with getting all sides of the stories. Except about how to get me a young bride in a third world country. Or about the pancake-free diet.
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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07-16-2009, 09:34 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Bacon? Balanced index? Pssst - Wellesley?
heh heh heh - agile, mobile and hostile - hang tough folks football season is coming.  . I used to know stuff - now I have only strong opinions.
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07-16-2009, 10:28 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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I have no idea if he's right. He's been a bear for as long as I can remember. Below is a link to Liz Ann Sonders take on the market. I've always enjoyed lusting over her commentary.
Audio version:
http://www.schwabcontent.com/straigh...ders062909.mp3
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-16-2009, 10:38 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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BTW, we're right about at the point we were at the start of the year. So, if you regretted rebalancing then, you could undo it at this point.
__________________
Al
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07-16-2009, 12:30 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Saints could use some defense, they gotta quit looking at the 2008 Packers defense as a guide....... 
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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07-16-2009, 12:32 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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I don't think anyone knows for sure how throwing trillions of dollars around is going to affect things long-term, but it doesn't look rosy.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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07-16-2009, 03:14 PM
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#15
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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I have no idea what is going to happen with the markets but as for breakfast food I like granola .
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07-17-2009, 05:51 AM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 223
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I am not sure at this point that we are in a bull market so I am going to invest in bonds for now and once the market has established itself in the positive direction I'll switch into stocks.
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07-17-2009, 08:20 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Quote:
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the market has established itself in the positive direction
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In the entire history of the world, the stock market has never once established itself in the positive direction.
__________________
Al
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07-17-2009, 08:28 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inquisitive
... I am going to invest in bonds for now and once the market has established itself in the positive direction I'll switch into stocks.
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Isn't that another way of saying "I plan on buying high"?
__________________
Numbers is hard
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07-17-2009, 08:39 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,084
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I'm going to continue what I did when the market is going down, up or sideways.
Keep DCAing in and collect the dividends
As for the article referenced by the original poster, I second the request for a 'don't know and it doesn't matter' option.
He may be right, he may not.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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07-17-2009, 01:03 PM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Newcastle, WA
Posts: 208
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Canned food is the next big thing.
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- Jack Bogle
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