Master Limited Partnerships

[jjim6954]

I have a few of these partnerships that total about 7% of my assets. I'm 46 years old. I bought these as very long term holdings. However, since I purchased them, a lot has changed. EV is now moving much faster than I think many analysts realize or are reporting.

My largest MLP holding, BPL, is a petroleum storage and transport firm. I'm considering selling it to focus on natural gas infrastructure.

Am I selling too early? Do we have many decades (3 or 4) until petroleum sees a substantial demand reduction? Or will it come much faster - within the next 10-15 years?

I use the MLP's for income purposes. If the transition comes much faster, I'm concerned about a permanent capital impairment in addition to loss of income.

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjim6954 ... Am I selling too early? Do we have many decades (3 or 4) until petroleum sees a substantial demand reduction? Or will it come much faster - within the next 10-15 years? ...

You are hardly unique in asking these questions. The most likely situation is that the consensus answers are already incorporated in the market price. Hence, the future price will be affected only by unknown future events and a buy or a sell decision is pretty much a roll of the dice.

This is a highly condensed argument for the efficient market hypothesis. Over the long term it is IMO hard to refute. Over the short term, behavioral finance effects occur. I'm sure that someone will be along soon to argue that case.

[gerntz]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjim6954 My largest MLP holding, BPL, is a petroleum storage and transport firm. I'm considering selling it to focus on natural gas infrastructure.

There are many NG MLP's.

[Blue Collar Guy]

Im involved with a Master Limited Partnership for over 30 years. My wife is the Master, im the limited partner. It works well for us, the default answer is "Yes Dear". It works well.

[Luck_Club]

EV=Electric Vehicle Migration?

Not likely to happen long term.

I've spent many years on the R&D side of all sorts of technology. When it comes to green energy Electric vehicle thing, I've worked with multiple companies developing photo voltaic cells (solar panels), wind turbines, hydrogen fuel cells, inverter & of course battery technology. Pull the "TAX Credits" and they all go away like a fart in the wind.

That's just my opinion.

[ncbill]

Electrification is the future of transport.

The electricity...from natural gas of course.

But driven less from cost concerns & more from pollution concerns, especially for urban areas.

[Luck_Club]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncbill Electrification is the future of transport. The electricity...from natural gas of course. But driven less from cost concerns & more from pollution concerns, especially for urban areas.

E=mc2

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luck_Club E=mc2

Remains a hard sell. Might be stupid, & IMO it is, but the public rules and no one ever said that the public was particularly smart.

Ha

[ncbill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luck_Club E=mc2

Ummm...what?

Referring to nuclear?

Sorry, it's proved too expensive vs. fossil fuels.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncbill Electrification is the future of transport. The electricity...from natural gas of course. But driven less from cost concerns & more from pollution concerns, especially for urban areas.

Once they get the range up to 1,000 miles and charging stations a common as gas stations it will be something I'll buy.

One other issue, more of a national one is wiping out a part of the grid, means people are stranded.

[ncbill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunset Once they get the range up to 1,000 miles and charging stations a common as gas stations it will be something I'll buy. One other issue, more of a national one is wiping out a part of the grid, means people are stranded.

It's a lot easier to get stranded when depending on only one fuel, which is why my next new vehicle will be a PHEV.

If the recent gulf coast hurricane had made landfall just a little further east then here we would have had a repeat of several years ago when we didn't have reliable gasoline supplies for a couple of weeks, even while shipping in as much fuel from the coast as possible. In the largest city in our state some stations were selling only to public services.

But it's now clear emissions will drive change more than economics. Already here in the U.S. the largest cities have or are in the process of switching public busses to natural gas instead of diesel.

Europe, which has traditionally favored efficiency (diesel engines with minimal pollution controls) over emissions has reversed course and urban centers will heavily restrict or outright ban personal ICE vehicles soon enough.

So, I'd favor investing in gas (cleaner emissions) projects over oil.

Here in the U.S., for better or for worse, we've bet the farm on natural gas.

For power generation, for manufacturing, for home heating, etc.

[Blue Collar Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncbill It's a lot easier to get stranded when depending on only one fuel, which is why my next new vehicle will be a PHEV. .

I once saw when i was in the army a refrigerator that used either electric or battery and I even think some other kind of fuel. We were in the field so electric was out, no generators were running, I even think he said it could be run on diesel. It been more than 35 years and the memory is going...


Any of you old OG-107 olive drab green soldiers remember this?

[pj.mask]

Even if new production changes to electric tomorrow we still got all those bogle heads who want to drive the car they they own for another 15 years.

I think production will decline and gas isn't near as profitable compared to oil. Harder to store as well. I wouldn't study to be in oil industry right now if I needed a long career. It won't crash but slow reduction in need will just keep increasing the competition for limited spots. Major deep water projects are a 30 year investment. Onshore is much shorter time frame.

It's complex to say how things will go. Sure to say there will be a long taper but don't know if it has already started or not and don't know when it will end. If we committed we could make all renewable energy but that's way more effort (cost) than using oil.