Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Maybe the Oil Price Tide Will Be Running Out For A WHile
Old 08-11-2008, 12:51 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Maybe the Oil Price Tide Will Be Running Out For A WHile

I expected crude to be up today on the Russia-Georgia conflict, but it is down. Not only is our "ally" being attacked, but gaining control of a very important crude pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean is probably Russia's objective. So crude price weakness is a sign of a very weak market, I suppose based on weak demand being forecast.

I am a long term oil bull, but we may get much better entry points than today's.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=a5jrm_6gHFDA&refer=commodity _futures
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel to a 14-week low on signs that the U.S. economic slump will extend into 2009, crimping fuel demand.
Oil prices retreated as a Bloomberg News survey showed that the U.S. will grow at an average 0.7 percent annual pace from July through December, half the gain in the first half of the year. Prices rose in early trading as five days of clashes between Russia and Georgia threaten alternative export routes from Azerbaijan, needed because of a pipeline fire.
``It's become clear that demand is cratering, which is making it hard to rally,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``It's hard to imagine that the market will shrug off the potential loss of 1 million barrels a day of pretty good quality crude but that appears to be the case.''


Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-11-2008, 01:36 PM   #2
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
I haven't sold yet, so there's no reason to expect a reversal.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2008, 01:52 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I haven't sold yet, so there's no reason to expect a reversal.
Can I give you my email for faster service?

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2008, 04:02 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I am a long term oil bull, but we may get much better entry points than today's.
So am I, and I've been shorting oil until this morning. I thought it was going lower short term, but Vlad the Impaler's invasion makes me think it could go back up a little and I wanted to lock in the profit from my short. It was just a trade anyway.

But I'm still hanging on to my long-term investments in oil. They were good stocks when oil was $30 a barrel.

Demand numbers are lagging, if I recall correctly, and I would think that much of what we are seeing is still fallout from higher prices of just a few weeks ago. I'd love to have a crystal ball that could tell me what demand will be next year, or in 2012.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2008, 08:32 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
This is my dilemma. Im frozen with fear to buy into oil. Thinking oh it cant possibly go down any further before another run up....But then wHAM I buy in..boom it goes down another 30 or so..
__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2008, 09:57 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger View Post
This is my dilemma. Im frozen with fear to buy into oil. Thinking oh it cant possibly go down any further before another run up....But then wHAM I buy in..boom it goes down another 30 or so..
We should try to differentiate between crude oil the commodity and equities of firms producing it. They are roughly in sync, but only roughly. I think at current prices one could easily get his ass handed to him buying crude contracts(or the ETF equivalent.)

The world hasn't yet shown that it can deal well with $100+ oil prices.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2008, 10:57 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Tucson
Posts: 118
Another long-term bull here. It's been a helluva run since I started building a position in Vanguard Energy in 2001. Made buckets of money, lost a bucket or two in the last two months, but still a believer in the story. I pays my money, I takes my chances.

Tom
__________________
tomintucson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2008, 12:34 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger View Post
This is my dilemma. Im frozen with fear to buy into oil. Thinking oh it cant possibly go down any further before another run up....But then wHAM I buy in..boom it goes down another 30 or so..
I think this is not a good environment to try and be a heroic stock picker in. There are some investments in oil and other commodities that look good just because Mr. Market took them out back and beat the #*$% out of them. But I'm not buying because Mr. Market might not be done yet. I'll wait and let someone else be the hero.

Not to say that I haven't done some trading in oil recently. That's been profitable but scary, like being on a roll in craps with a lot of black chips on the felt. But it was all short term and small money - not a real investment.
__________________

__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Oil Price - The Consumer - The Stock Market shotgunner FIRE and Money 11 07-02-2008 12:28 PM
Oil Price vs. Declining Dollar Telly FIRE and Money 3 05-29-2008 04:04 PM
Oil / Gas price. Supply and demand. Sam Other topics 62 12-06-2006 10:32 PM
Will oil price ever come down? Spanky FIRE and Money 49 06-30-2005 09:59 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:02 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.