Met a top housing market analyst today...and this is what she said

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki How fast can we print money? Pass out enough free money, inflation goes up 10%, people holding mortgages take a 10% value hit but the stated value of homes pops up. Everybody suddenly has equity in their homes again and can take out more equity loans and good times have returned! No more financial problems! Oh - and i don't know squat about buying and selling stocks. and only guess on real estate and how the economy works.

So far the Treasury, and the Fed have down everything short handing out personal printing presses to do this.

"You'll never need money again, with your official US Mint print press, print as many dollar bill as you need, and if you act now will ship you the Abe Lincoln Press capable of printing $5 bill all this for only one Oz. of Gold"

But you underestimate your real estate knowledge since you've made numerous real estate loans, probably more importantly you've passed on even more real estate loans. The problem with getting a handle on real estate is the market varies by city so it is hard to get picture of the overall market.

[calmloki]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp So far the Treasury, and the Fed have down everything short handing out personal printing presses to do this. "You'll never need money again, with your official US Mint print press, print as many dollar bill as you need, and if you act now will ship you the Abe Lincoln Press capable of printing $5 bill all this for only one Oz. of Gold" ....

We're all doing what we can: Bogus money goes mainstream - USATODAY.com
These must not have been authorised by the mint print jobs..

[brewer12345]

Lots of interesting comments. I think that if you are looking to buy a primary residence that you plan on staying in for a while and you have the net worth and income necessary to afford a house, its probably not a bad time. Definately cheaper than this time last year.

As for an investment, its hard to say. If you can find property that will flow cash with reasonable assumptions baked in and you have a hankering for real estate, its probably not a bad time. After all, if it flows cash and amortizes the mortgage you can afford to sit on it for a long time. In my market, it appears that many/most single family properties still would not flow cash, although I would have to sharpen my pencil to be sure. And since I can find investment grade bonds that yield double digits, I guess I am ultimately too lazy to do the work.

[BunsGettingFirm]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Where do you get that grammar-police guidance from-- the AP's style book, Strunk & White, or "Eats, Shoots, & Leaves"? Just wondering"..." I think Herb Caen would be quite surprised to hear that an ellipsis is so low-class. Or maybe ellipses are the ancestors of emoticons & l33tsp33k...

Ah, Nords, this is where you're showing your I'm-not-enough-of-a-nerd side. L33t sp33k is so 2001-2003. No one would use l33t crap in his screen name now.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BunsGettingFirm Ah, Nords, this is where you're showing your I'm-not-enough-of-a-nerd side. L33t sp33k is so 2001-2003. No one would use l33t crap in his screen name now.

Another fad that blazed overhead at high altitude with no effect... I'm not holding out much hope for Twitter, either.

[FANOFJESUS]

Quote:

Originally Posted by thefed A couple of quick points: 1) no, i cant find the shift key all the time...pretend i'm whispering 2)midpack-she never really said, but is sticking to her guns that equities isnt the place to be right now (as she told me in july) . all cash, frm my pov is money markets, high yield checking or the like until the dust clears... 3) the 6 months she referred to is the numbers reports....from the data they analyze, she claims its guaranteed to be all bad housing reports, builders reports, foreclosure #'s etc for that time frame, which is the longest they can predict assuredly with the data they have. of course the whole thing will take longer. 4) nords-maybe i wrote it wrong...but the lack of demand isnt on the financing/refi side, but the number of homes for sale vs. the demand to buy them...all 67 (or whatever)% of people who can afford homes, have homes. the housing stock is piling up which will keep the prices trending downward 5) i never said i believe this woman or put much merit into anything she says, but it's interesting to talk to someone who's making $$ by analyzing this stuff.... to her defense,she did advise me to get out of equities totally in july, and i though she was nuts....she said the proverbial $@!# was going to be hitting the fan, and it did. our whole conversation basically revolved around me and my personal investing goals....the point she was trying to make is WAIT a little while longer to buy another rental,they will be getting cheaper, and there will be fewer able to buy due to the new lending criteria- cash is king

Keep up the good work. Thanks

[jazz4cash]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire In another thread, someone stated that the usual buyer will live in a single family home for 4-6 years. If that is true, and the housing slump is in, say, its second or third year, then in the next few years many more people will be desperate to move and putting their single family homes on the market, driving prices down even further.

I don't believe the 4-6 years is accurate. I recall the other post also and I started to respond then. I believe the average MORTGAGE is paid off in 4-6 years due to homowners moving or REFINANCING. Seven yrs is the average life of a mortgage that I recall from many yrs ago and I would expect that has been reduced as the cost to refinance has come down.
If the 4-7 yrs is largely due to refinancing that would effect the conclusion that the housing slump would accelerate due to folks being desperate to move.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazz4cash I don't believe the 4-6 years is accurate. I recall the other post also and I started to respond then. I believe the average MORTGAGE is paid off in 4-6 years due to homowners moving or REFINANCING. Seven yrs is the average life of a mortgage that I recall from many yrs ago and I would expect that has been reduced as the cost to refinance has come down. If the 4-7 yrs is largely due to refinancing that would effect the conclusion that the housing slump would accelerate due to folks being desperate to move.

Good point. I agree - - 4-6 years sounds awfully brief! I will be putting my house on the market in early 2010, after my November 2009 retirement. That would be 8 years after buying it, but the house still seems new to me. The mortgage only lasted 4 years, though.

My parents lived in one house for 25 years, and their retirement house for 25 years as well. My ex and I lived in our first house for just 4 years (due to a job location change), and in our second house for 17 years.

[thefed]

here's a link with this lady's name, bio, and credentials. google her name and you'll find tons of stuff


Zelman & Associates - Team