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Old 03-04-2008, 02:51 PM   #21
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What did she reveal?

I read that Cramer has most of his money in safe investments like TBills and CD's, that is a joke.
why?

he's worth something like $75 million all of which he made from running his hedge fund. and with the new laws, i don't think he's allowed to own anything that he discusses either
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Old 03-04-2008, 03:15 PM   #22
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You really think Cramer got rich by making hundreds of snap (usually wrong) judgements about equities?

I think the man is the equivalent of a monkey throwing its poop at the stock tables of the WSJ so that its owner will know what to buy.
I'm sure we both know people who've made tens of millions in the investment business while seemingly not that smart.

That being said, they guy ran a really successful fund and unlike a lot of other people knew when to call it quits. However his show is SO ANNOYING I've never watched more than 30 seconds of it.
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Old 03-04-2008, 03:16 PM   #23
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No, no, no, no personal attacks, my apologies if that's the interpretation, no offense intended.
My asset allocation is of little use to most of my clients because I am so much younger than they are. However, I do have a fair number of execs that around my age, and have showed my AA to them, and their response usually is: "Man, are you sure you're not 65 years old"?? I am pretty convervative, but I recall my worst quarter of the 2000-2002 period being down 6%.........so why not??

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I'm interested in Moshe's asset allocation because of the asset allocations he recommends. Bernstein claims that he'll never retire as long as he can write, Burns admits the same although he works with a guy who sells retirement-planning software, Buffett readily discloses his asset allocation (other than individual stock picks), and even Bogle submits to occasional scrutiny. I think an advisor's asset allocation is a critical component of their credibility, and if I was making a living on recommending AAs then I'd have mine posted on my office door.
See my response above. I DO have the holdings and composition of the stock and ETF portfolios I recommend to clients that I give to them when we meet.

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Compare that to people like Suze Orman who don't hesitate to dispense advice or even castigate their customers but who appeared bashful, even deceptive, about their own AAs. Of course Orman & Ramsey aren't even fit to clean the mud off Milevsky's footwear, but that's another rant thread.
Orman is a marketing machine, Ramsey not as much. I think Ramsey appeals to most average folks, while Suze has made a living among women, like Oprah. But Suze GRATES on my nerves............
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Old 03-04-2008, 03:18 PM   #24
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I'm sure we both know people who've made tens of millions in the investment business while seemingly not that smart.

That being said, they guy ran a really successful fund and unlike a lot of other people knew when to call it quits. However his show is SO ANNOYING I've never watched more than 30 seconds of it.
Cramer is small fry, the guy that made the REAL money in hedge funds was Vinik...........
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Old 03-04-2008, 03:31 PM   #25
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Zvi Bodie is nearing retirement age. He says he'll be buying an annuity.

Webcast:

CFA Webcasts

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Bogleheads :: View topic - Time diversification fallacy
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Old 03-04-2008, 04:16 PM   #26
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What did she reveal?

I read that Cramer has most of his money in safe investments like TBills and CD's, that is a joke.
Mostly municipal bonds, some stock and personal real estate.

Ha
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Old 03-04-2008, 04:56 PM   #27
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Mostly municipal bonds, some stock and personal real estate.

Ha
Sorry, I think you are right, I remember it was low risk compared to 100% stocks. I think the guy pushing stocks and timing to an obviously uninformed crowd (have you heard the questions asked on that show?) should be drinking the koolaide or he should just SHUT UP.
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Old 03-04-2008, 05:21 PM   #28
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I saw Suze Orman once; she disclosed her AA early in the talk.
I know she's been around for years, but I don't remember any personal AA talk until recently. I'm sure that would've stuck in my mind during the 1990s & 2000s when she was doing her "Young, Fabulous, & Broke" tour...
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Old 03-04-2008, 05:41 PM   #29
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Sorry, I think you are right, I remember it was low risk compared to 100% stocks. I think the guy pushing stocks and timing to an obviously uninformed crowd (have you heard the questions asked on that show?) should be drinking the koolaide or he should just SHUT UP.
Oh, I guess I wasn't clear. I was referring to Suze Orman, not Cramer.

Ha
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Old 03-04-2008, 06:02 PM   #30
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Oh, I guess I wasn't clear. I was referring to Suze Orman, not Cramer.

Ha
It is strange how some of those with a lot of money do not hold stocks, stocks seem best for the want-a-be crowd.

Imagine having $50 Million. If you have that much it is likely outside of tax deferred accounts. You could put enough in dividend paying stocks to have an income tax of only 15%, if you wanted to; or, better yet buy Muni bonds and avoid all income taxes. The AMT doesn't touch them. That is being rich.

Most reasonably well off, but not rich (maybe up to 3 or 4 Million even), Americans have a large percentage of their money in tax deferred accounts, they pay income tax rates on those withdrawals. Some get hit with the AMT, like I did this year.

Maybe if I buy some of those pink sheet stocks, I'll get there.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:40 PM   #31
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Did he explain (1) the personal-capital earnings potential of an early retiree, and (2) his own asset allocation?
In his book Wealth Logic WealthOutput Milevsky doesn't show us his personal asset allocation but does reveal his father's strategy (self insurance), the fact that he ran out to buy life insurance the day his first child was born, and his mother in law's atraction to sexy stocks. Based on the papers he has written, I'll bet that he doesn't DCA but invests equally in equities and fixed income when he has spare cash, has a balanced portfolio, and factors in the U of Toronto (defined benefit) pension plan. He sounds like a very engaging teacher. If I ever get the chance to hear him speak, I will.
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Old 03-04-2008, 10:37 PM   #32
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Cramer was so powerful in his on-air tirade that he frightened the Fed into slashing rates.

Lets see Milevshy do that!!
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Old 03-04-2008, 10:45 PM   #33
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Cramer was so powerful in his on-air tirade that he frightened the Fed into slashing rates.

Lets see Milevshy do that!!
I had the cable connection to my TV taken out today............I don't need CNBC poisoning my day anymore...........it's a total waste of time..........
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:01 AM   #34
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Now just unplug the whole apparatus and get outside for some exercise, FD! It will do wonders for your optimism! Good job!

We have a really insane guy who isn't really a client, but who calls when the market is down and asks hysterical questions while CNBC blares loudly in the background! I am always glad to answer him that I'm buying while it is all on sale! Drives him crazy
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:00 AM   #35
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Considering Milevsky is currently a strong proponent of variable annuities and the living benefits of such, I'm really surprised to see so many here admiring him.
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:11 AM   #36
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Considering Milevsky is currently a strong proponent of variable annuities and the living benefits of such, I'm really surprised to see so many here admiring him.
I am not wild about variable annuities, but Prof. Milevsky is the leading academic light delving into a matter dear to all our hearts: what is the best way to optimize one's standard of living in retirement?
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:30 AM   #37
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Considering Milevsky is currently a strong proponent of variable annuities and the living benefits of such, I'm really surprised to see so many here admiring him.
More interesting is that back in 1999-2000 he thought they were expensive worthless products, and has changed his tune.........

I think if the industry "invents" a fixed product with COLA adjustments, folks would be less critical.........oh what, that's been done, it's called a Govt Pension.......
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Old 03-05-2008, 02:06 PM   #38
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Come to think of it, I don't know Dave Ramsey or Scott Burn's asset allocation mix either..........
If you're curious Scott Burns does write an annual "Mea Culpa" column:

"This is the column where I tell you what I've been doing with my own money, with particular attention to mistakes. It also lets you see if I eat my own cooking and, if so, whether I choke on it."

I'm curious what Milevsky had to say about tontines. They seem like the perfect vehicle for the ERF crowd - people who don't trust insurance companies, like equities, and could use the few percent annuitization bump in yield. Are they legal these days?
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Old 03-05-2008, 02:16 PM   #39
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More interesting is that back in 1999-2000 he thought they were expensive worthless products, and has changed his tune.........

I think if the industry "invents" a fixed product with COLA adjustments, folks would be less critical.........oh what, that's been done, it's called a Govt Pension.......
Here's how the FERS (Federal Employee Retirement System) pensions are COLA'd. You will notice the FERS COLA isn't the full Consumer Price Index increase.
  • If the CPI is less than 2%, the FERS COLA equals the CPI.
  • If the CPI is 2-3%, the FERS COLA is 2%.
  • If the CPI is over 3%, the FERS COLA is 1% less than the CPI.
Those on the old pension system CSRS (Civil Service Retirement System) get the full CPI, I believe. These (CSRS) are mostly employees who began work with the federal government 20+ years ago.

I guess my point is that there are COLAs, and then there are COLAs!! I'm glad to have any.

I can also get a COLA'd benefit by buying an inflation adjusted immediate lifetime annuity from MetLife through the TSP. Probably won't, though.
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:53 PM   #40
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I'm curious what Milevsky had to say about tontines. They seem like the perfect vehicle for the ERF crowd - people who don't trust insurance companies, like equities, and could use the few percent annuitization bump in yield. Are they legal these days?
Outlawed in New York state in 1906, and by 1908, all 50 states. Apparently a certain NY senator thought they were a "rip-off",, so SS came along to replace it in the 30's.........
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