Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Met Moshe Milevsky Last Week...........
Old 03-03-2008, 02:52 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Met Moshe Milevsky Last Week...........

At a lunch meeting with ING. He did a presentation on Longevity risk and how it's a risk noone is talking about. Fascinating stuff. He covered the rise and fall of tontine insurance in the early 1900's, and how that led to social programs such as SS coming of age. Also, the death of defined benefit programs.

His main focus was on the risk management of DISTRIBUTION for retirees, and how the financial industry is just now getting "around to it".

He pretty much HATES Target Retirement Funds, his comment was: "Great, I just stopped working and have to live the rest of my life on my nest egg, so you have me "gliding into bonds" when inflation could kill my portfolio....thanks a lot"!!

I introduced myself and we talked for a minute or so. What a funny guy..........
__________________

__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-03-2008, 03:05 PM   #2
Moderator
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,456
He's the guy that wrote the retirement ruin gamma distribution formula I asked about in the other thread. How cool! Congrats on getting to meet him and hear him talk!

Longevity and distribution are really hot topics right now, my older boss has been working on a lot of nifty stuff with that monster ERG formula from Milevsky's book The Calculus of Retirement Income (page 193).

Glad to hear he's more interesting than his materials would indicate!
__________________

__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2008, 03:23 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah in SC View Post
He's the guy that wrote the retirement ruin gamma distribution formula I asked about in the other thread. How cool! Congrats on getting to meet him and hear him talk!

Longevity and distribution are really hot topics right now, my older boss has been working on a lot of nifty stuff with that monster ERG formula from Milevsky's book The Calculus of Retirement Income (page 193).

Glad to hear he's more interesting than his materials would indicate!
He's a funny guy, kind of rants, soapboxes, and one-lines as he hops around the stage. He used himself as an example: "All I want these days is ALPHA, don't talk to me about risk management, I WANT ALPHA"!!!!!
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2008, 08:21 PM   #4
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3
I agree with Moshe. Here is a link to a thread in the forum that links a paper by Zvi Bodie that addresses longevity risk. A lifelime inflation protected annuity is probably the best way to address this risk. These products will be available soon. Whether they're cost efficient is an open question.

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...1-a-33704.html
__________________
ETFnerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 12:40 AM   #5
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Did he explain (1) the personal-capital earnings potential of an early retiree, and (2) his own asset allocation?
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 08:39 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
Did he explain (1) the personal-capital earnings potential of an early retiree, and (2) his own asset allocation?
In regards to the first, what exactly do you mean?

He told us a few things about his asset allocation, he has some money in a hedge fund, and venture capital money in a real estate venture. Come to think of it, I don't know Dave Ramsey or Scott Burn's asset allocation mix either..........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 11:00 AM   #7
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
In regards to the first, what exactly do you mean?
Eh, now I can't find the link.

A few months back, when Roy Weitz was still writing his monthly "Highlights & Commentary" on FundAlarm.com, I thought he mentioned Milevsky's "human capital" concept. The idea is that one's salary income should be viewed as a bond allocation since it's (more or less) reliable and thus employees should hold high-equity portfolios during their working years.

The other side of the concept is that retirees need a steady income (pension, annuity, bond portfolio) since they're no longer earning a steady paycheck.

A third aspect of the discussion was that ERs are a "tragic case" of wasting their potential for lifetime income, or words to that effect. But I might have Milevsky confused with some other name ending in -sky.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
He told us a few things about his asset allocation, he has some money in a hedge fund, and venture capital money in a real estate venture. Come to think of it, I don't know Dave Ramsey or Scott Burn's asset allocation mix either..........
I think a financial advisor's/researcher's credibility rests upon their reasoning behind their personal asset allocation-- or more importantly how willing they are to discuss it.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 11:11 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
I think a financial advisor's/researcher's credibility rests upon their reasoning behind their personal asset allocation-- or more importantly how willing they are to discuss it.
Are you asking for MY asset allocation, or Moshe's, or both? He was not asked about his asset allocation directly, although he did say he doesn't keep any cash except for an emergency fund. I took that to believe he's 100% in equities, although I don't know the exact mix.
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 12:10 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Are you asking for MY asset allocation, or Moshe's, or both? He was not asked about his asset allocation directly, although he did say he doesn't keep any cash except for an emergency fund. I took that to believe he's 100% in equities, although I don't know the exact mix.
It seems to me that the retirement guru's allocation may not matter much, since he is obviously working and likely making very god money with a lot of security.

On the other hand if we are talking investment advisors, and the skill being claimed is the ability to get good risk adjusted equity returns, then it is relevant to know how they are investing- in particular are they invested in what they are recommending for you?

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 12:35 PM   #10
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Are you asking for MY asset allocation, or Moshe's, or both? He was not asked about his asset allocation directly, although he did say he doesn't keep any cash except for an emergency fund. I took that to believe he's 100% in equities, although I don't know the exact mix.
No, no, no, no personal attacks, my apologies if that's the interpretation, no offense intended.

I'm interested in Moshe's asset allocation because of the asset allocations he recommends. Bernstein claims that he'll never retire as long as he can write, Burns admits the same although he works with a guy who sells retirement-planning software, Buffett readily discloses his asset allocation (other than individual stock picks), and even Bogle submits to occasional scrutiny. I think an advisor's asset allocation is a critical component of their credibility, and if I was making a living on recommending AAs then I'd have mine posted on my office door.

Compare that to people like Suze Orman who don't hesitate to dispense advice or even castigate their customers but who appeared bashful, even deceptive, about their own AAs. Of course Orman & Ramsey aren't even fit to clean the mud off Milevsky's footwear, but that's another rant thread.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 01:21 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
Compare that to people like Suze Orman who don't hesitate to dispense advice or even castigate their customers but who appeared bashful, even deceptive, about their own AAs.
I saw Suze Orman once; she disclosed her AA early in the talk.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 01:32 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
Milevsky also said something that hit home. He compared the auto manufacturers and said, (I'm sure I don't have his exact numbers), GM has something like 501 retirees for every current worker, Ford has like 146/1, Nissan 15/1 and Toyota 3/1.
Anyway, his point being that GM isn't an auto manufacturer, they are a health care and retirement company who sidelights in the auto business.
__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 01:38 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
No, no, no, no personal attacks, my apologies if that's the interpretation, no offense intended.

I'm interested in Moshe's asset allocation because of the asset allocations he recommends. Bernstein claims that he'll never retire as long as he can write, Burns admits the same although he works with a guy who sells retirement-planning software, Buffett readily discloses his asset allocation (other than individual stock picks), and even Bogle submits to occasional scrutiny. I think an advisor's asset allocation is a critical component of their credibility, and if I was making a living on recommending AAs then I'd have mine posted on my office door.

Compare that to people like Suze Orman who don't hesitate to dispense advice or even castigate their customers but who appeared bashful, even deceptive, about their own AAs. Of course Orman & Ramsey aren't even fit to clean the mud off Milevsky's footwear, but that's another rant thread.
Milevsky is an academic. He spends his time trying to "prove" (as far as that is possible in these matters) what teh optimal solution is for retired folks. As a working individual, I don't think his personal allocation matters much.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:15 PM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I saw Suze Orman once; she disclosed her AA early in the talk.

Ha
What did she reveal?

I read that Cramer has most of his money in safe investments like TBills and CD's, that is a joke.
__________________
RockOn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:29 PM   #15
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,840
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn View Post
What did she reveal?

I read that Cramer has most of his money in safe investments like TBills and CD's, that is a joke.
I have heard her mention her investments on the show, but to be honest I can't exactly remember what they were. Maybe it will come to me. I do remember her saying that her plan probably would not be suitable for the average joe, because she is so well off.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:30 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn View Post
I read that Cramer has most of his money in safe investments like TBills and CD's, that is a joke.

Just like Cramer.

I think its a tossup as to whether he or Kiyosaki is the bigger assclown.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:40 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
saluki9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Just like Cramer.

I think its a tossup as to whether he or Kiyosaki is the bigger assclown.
Is that even in question? I though Kiyosaki had that locked up?

As for Nords statement about asset allocation. Being in a business where so much of your income depends on the performance of the broader market (which obviously is out of your control) does some weird things to your own choice in investments.

I have a very non traditional asset allocation which I would be happy to tell clients about, but I don't think it would add anything of value to them.
__________________
saluki9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:44 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by saluki9 View Post
Is that even in question? I though Kiyosaki had that locked up?
What Cramer lacks in "quality," he at least makes up for in quantity. You can fertilize a field with bullcrap or pigeons!ht.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:47 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
saluki9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
What Cramer lacks in "quality," he at least makes up for in quantity. You can fertilize a field with bullcrap or pigeons!ht.
No doubt that Cramer pollutes more people with his BS, but at least he became rich doing what he preaches.

Kiyosaki got rich being a phony, Cramer at least became a phony AFTER he got rich.
__________________
saluki9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2008, 02:49 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by saluki9 View Post
No doubt that Cramer pollutes more people with his BS, but at least he became rich doing what he preaches.

Kiyosaki got rich being a phony, Cramer at least became a phony AFTER he got rich.
You really think Cramer got rich by making hundreds of snap (usually wrong) judgements about equities?

I think the man is the equivalent of a monkey throwing its poop at the stock tables of the WSJ so that its owner will know what to buy.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Moshe Milevsky FinanceDude FIRE and Money 2 01-04-2008 10:37 AM
Last week Coffee - This week donuts chinaco Other topics 23 05-20-2007 01:40 PM
Update week two of my 13 week sentence in Newark,NJ newguy88 Life after FIRE 14 09-17-2006 04:44 PM
Moshe Milevsky Paper Discussion at Vanguard Diehards mb FIRE and Money 1 05-02-2006 06:50 AM
New paper by Milevsky nfs FIRE and Money 1 03-17-2005 11:27 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:05 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.