Millennials will prioritize "necessity spending"

[SunBlueSky]

Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mil...point-for-the-us-economy-bill-smead-says.html

Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.

 

[candrew]

Those same cohorts (Millennials and X'ers) will not only be making the long term care decisions for many Boomers, but also providing their hands-on care, as well.

 

[USGrant1962]

...
"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.

A talking head knows more than the actuaries at SSA. Who knew...

 

[RetiredGypsy]

As a Millennial looking for a house and a new car, 4-6% and rising interest rates hardly feel like anything is being given away for free!

I also don't see many of my peers interested in housing over renting when it tends to free up so much more money and time away from maintenance and upkeep. Could be I keep finding the odd pockets of people though and the larger averages say something else.

 

[Dtail]

The spending will not happen soon enough to save SS unto itself.

 

[Lsbcal]

I read the article but it didn't suggest any stocks to take advantage of this "megatrend". I'm kind of doubtful this will have big effects. Home Depot anyone?

 

[razztazz]

Anybody know what Harry Dent says about this? This sounds like Dentism

 

[joeea]

“In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics,”

The future's so bright I have to wear shades.

I'm no longer a payer, but I'm not a taker-outer quite yet. I guess I'm a delayer for now and I like to think of myself as an optimizer.

 

[kgtest]

Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mil...point-for-the-us-economy-bill-smead-says.html

Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.

I'm 38. I've owned 4 homes. I bought my first house before I was married and before I ever owned a credit card. I actually didn't buy a "new" car until I knew DW was pregnant. Oh, I've never owned an AAPL product, I don't drink (and stopped drinking WELL before the whole craft beer craze). I must be doing it wrong?

I thought Millenials and X'ers were "not having kids", "not moving out of their parents basements" "not getting their license" etc. etc.

I hear another aspect of all of this is the largest transfer of wealth in american history is currently occurring. Soo, maybe we won't need as much of the Social Security? Who knows.

 

[jazz4cash]

I read the article but it didn't suggest any stocks to take advantage of this "megatrend". I'm kind of doubtful this will have big effects. Home Depot anyone?

Short Chipotle.

 

[aja8888]

I'm more worried about our (DW and I) future than I am about 89 million younger folks. Good luck to them!

We have some of that age group in our family (mine and the extended one) and they are having babies, buying houses and diving nice cars.

I don't know of anyone in that age group living in a parent's basement in order to lower their carbon footprint (although I have a 70 year old SIL who is bragging about lowering hers )

 

[joeea]

I'm 38. I've owned 4 homes. I bought my first house before I was married and before I ever owned a credit card. I actually didn't buy a "new" car until I knew DW was pregnant. Oh, I've never owned an AAPL product, I don't drink (and stopped drinking WELL before the whole craft beer craze). I must be doing it wrong?

I thought Millenials and X'ers were "not having kids", "not moving out of their parents basements" "not getting their license" etc. etc.

Well you are special.

Either that or not all Millennials are actually the same.

 

[RobbieB]

I think it's good news. They may be "settling down" later in life but hey that's what we all do.

I'm a big fan of Home Depot -

 

[NW-Bound]

Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mil...point-for-the-us-economy-bill-smead-says.html

From above article:

He said this will mean young adults will soon start to move away from buying “Apple devices, craft beer and Chipotle burritos” and instead spend their savings on big-ticket items such as houses and cars.

My son, daughter, and son-in-law do not own any Apple devices (they use PCs and Android phones), drink whisky and not beer, and are not fans of Chipotle. They have owned their homes for a while now.

Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.

It's good that my children's SS will be taken care of, although by that time, I am either dead or senile, and would not know.

 

[Lsbcal]

As a former Android user I think iPhones a great product right now. No sense in becoming too attached to a particular brand though.

 

[donheff]

I suspect the SS actuaries have a better handle on the effect of demographics than this guy. As to houses, he could be right. Reportedly, a lot of millennials put off marriage and kids longer than previous generation and are overdue. Anecdotally, my millenial daughter and many of her friends are jumping into both marriage and houses now and many are pregnant. In DC bidding wars are driving house prices thru the roof as the kids all seem to be frantic to get on board now.

 

[pb4uski]

A talking head knows more than the actuaries at SSA. Who knew...

Exactly what I was thinking.

 

[Retiree_Having_Fun]

I continue to see millenials sitting in their cars at parks glued to their phones. Sometimes 2, 3, 4 people in the same car - not sure but not saying a word to each other. As the seasons are changing, flowers are blooming and squirrels gathering nuts, these people are "making memories" by looking at snarky cynical postings on social media and wishing they had the life of an "influencer".

So even with mortgage rates at low historical rates, that cohort will be happy (and fulfilled) with the AAPL device purchased from communist manufacturers. I see a trend on social media of that group "waiting for all the boomers to die" so they can finally live - what a joke. I think the McMansion of their generation will be a 900 sq foot apartment with a lease and tons of other monthly blood letting charges for their conveniences such as food delivery, chauffeur services, and avocado toast. So NO I don't see them giving up all their primping for mortgage.

 

[joeea]

I continue to see millenials sitting in their cars at parks glued to their phones. Sometimes 2, 3, 4 people in the same car - not sure but not saying a word to each other. As the seasons are changing, flowers are blooming and squirrels gathering nuts, these people are "making memories" by looking at snarky cynical postings on social media and wishing they had the life of an "influencer".

So even with mortgage rates at low historical rates, that cohort will be happy (and fulfilled) with the AAPL device purchased from communist manufacturers. I see a trend on social media of that group "waiting for all the boomers to die" so they can finally live - what a joke. I think the McMansion of their generation will be a 900 sq foot apartment with a lease and tons of other monthly blood letting charges for their conveniences such as food delivery, chauffeur services, and avocado toast. So NO I don't see them giving up all their primping for mortgage.

Kids!
You can talk and talk till your face is blue!
Kids!
But they still just do what they want to do!
Why can't they be like we were
Perfect in every way?
What's the matter with kids today?

 

[FreeBear]

I just don’t see the many folks in my life prioritizing much of anything. It’s all “and”, seldom “or”, regardless of age.

Regardless 20 something young adults, they don’t make any more, inflation adjusted, than DW and I did at that age, but they have greater expectations of a higher material living standard.

 

[ckelly78z]

My "millennial" daughter just got married on Saturday (25 Y.O.), has a new Honda Civic, and has owned her own place for 3 years now. She works as a C.A.D. operator in a large petroleum company, now making more $$ than I do. Hopefully she produces some grandchildren that we can spoil.

 

[Teacher Terry]

None of my kids are millennials as they are 39-46. They have no interest in owning a home or having kids. They spend their money on travel. My 2 stepsons are millennials and much more traditional. One bought his first home at 18 during the housing crisis.

 

[lemming]

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgur...J7lAhWSmeAKHfNTBiYQMwhQKAAwAA&iact=mrc&uact=8 What the zombies really look like.
I worry that a third of the millennials will die off from drug overdoses etc. The ones I know are simply trying to live with as little work as possible off the system that pays into social security thinking they will never grow old or need medical attention.

 

[big-papa]

Millennials - Every time I read an article about them a phrase comes to mind: "Generally speaking, all generalizations are true".

 

[schenbew]

Demographics is an often under appreciated force driving the economy. For a detailed analysis of the relationship between demographics and economic activity, see Bill McBride's Calculated Risk blog.

Specifically, see this post: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/06/us-demographics-largest-5-year-cohorts.html

The takeaway: prime working age adult numbers are growing, and the baby boomer numbers are shrinking, which is positive for the economy.