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minus 3.1% ouch! Dow teeters on 10K
Old 02-04-2010, 03:03 PM   #1
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minus 3.1% ouch! Dow teeters on 10K

oh baby, am I glad I go out on Jan 20 at the top! S&P is off 9.25% since that time. Something was a sayin to me...this market is going to unravel. I am 100% in short term bonds and that is where I am staying, no high yield, no stocks, period. Thank god I decided against the high yield portfolio or going back into the market.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:09 PM   #2
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Thanks for rubbing salt into my wounds.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:12 PM   #3
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On October 31, 2007, something gnawed at me to get the hell out of stocks with the Dow around 14,000.

I didn't and got creamed.

Fortunately I didn't sell near the low and I did rebalance fairly close to the low, so I gained back all but about 15% of my high watermark in October '07.

It's gnawing at me again. And this time, I at least partially heeded the call. I got most of what I lost back in the recent rally, and for now that's good enough for me given the headwinds I see. I could be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong this way than wrong in the way I was for not taking action in '07.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:18 PM   #4
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Hey, after such a tremendous rally we need a healthy 10% correction so that we can "move on".

A lot of hot money has chased commodities, and with the US$ rising in value a bunch of the carry trades (where people borrow in a low interest, declining currency and chase hot investments) are being unwound. This causes the better performing assets to decline.

Just let these sellers get out of here, and then maybe things will settle down (for a while, anyway).

For folks concerned about imminent inflation - well, if you see the huge commodity price drops you probably realize it's not likely to happen this year.

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Old 02-04-2010, 03:21 PM   #5
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oh baby, am I glad I go out on Jan 20 at the top! S&P is off 11% since that time. Something was a sayin to me...this market is going to unravel. I am 100% in short term bonds and that is where I am staying, no high yield, no stocks, period. Thank god I decided against the high yield portfolio or going back into the market.
I see the S&P down around 7.5% from the 1/19 close of 1150. Not good, but not as bad as your number. 10% corrections are common.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:23 PM   #6
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I see the S&P down around 7.5% from the 1/19 close of 1150. Not good, but not as bad as your number. 10% corrections are common.
I think this could be a garden variety healthy correction off of a rally IF the jobs picture starts improving. If the "jobless recovery" continues I don't think it will be a recovery for too many months longer.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:33 PM   #7
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Not yet, but 'tis time to eye equities that you are kicking yourself for passing up when they were cheap. I have always liked GE, MMM, JNJ, and Pepsi but haven't researched them for about a year.

Anyone want to toss out their own 'should-a bought' list?
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:35 PM   #8
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Oh goody - looks like time to think about investing the pocket change we have left after loss harvesting our GM stock!
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:38 PM   #9
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Not yet, but 'tis time to eye equities that you are kicking yourself for passing up when they were cheap. I have always liked GE, MMM, JNJ, and Pepsi but haven't researched them for about a year.
If I were still an investor in individual stocks, I would generally be leaning toward the dividend stocks with a strong history of steady earnings and dividend growth. To the extent one can wring some of the risk out of stocks, I think that could do it.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 02-04-2010, 03:46 PM   #10
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After 2008-2009, I feel like a seasoned veteran when it comes to stock market crashes.

So, I am ready to hang on and ride the roller coaster once again, should it be starting up.
Guess this is part of what it takes to be an investor these days.

I bought low in Oct-Nov 2008, but I won't need to rebalance for a while unless the market keeps dropping .
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:46 PM   #11
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If I were still an investor in individual stocks, I would generally be leaning toward the dividend stocks with a strong history of steady earnings and dividend growth. To the extent one can wring some of the risk out of stocks, I think that could do it.
Me too. Wasn't there a thread a while back about such stocks?
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:51 PM   #12
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Not yet, but 'tis time to eye equities that you are kicking yourself for passing up when they were cheap. I have always liked GE, MMM, JNJ, and Pepsi but haven't researched them for about a year.

Anyone want to toss out their own 'should-a bought' list?
I am still 100% individual stocks (as I have been since 1993). My current largest holdings are ADP, JNJ, KO, PG, SYY. Of the stocks I follow but do not currently own, I consider MDT, ABT, AFL to be the best values.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:51 PM   #13
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Im sure we will have more "stimulus" coming soon to prop this up a little longer

Im calling for S&P 500 at 500 soon
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:57 PM   #14
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Pssst - Wellesley - ballpark 3.28% SEC yield. Not great but better than a kick in the butt.

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Old 02-04-2010, 03:59 PM   #15
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Looks like it's time to strap on the seatbelts and go along for the follow the total market index ride
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:08 PM   #16
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Buying opportunity? Why not?
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:09 PM   #17
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Im calling for S&P 500 at 500 soon
You and TheSweetLife should start an investment newsletter. You'll be rich!
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:14 PM   #18
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Nowhere to hide here

At least Im young and healthy...
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:45 PM   #19
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Well, things aren't so bad.

Just ask :

Online Crystal Ball :: Free Fortune Teller

I asked is it a good time to invest in the stock market and got a 65% yes answer
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:51 PM   #20
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After 2008-2009, I feel like a seasoned veteran when it comes to stock market crashes.
Now remember, a crash requires something like >30% drop within a certain amount of time (don't remember exactly). We definitely saw one of those in 2008. They are not very common.

A 20% drop or more is considered the start of a "bear market" unless you are already in one, I guess.

Anything less - 10% or so - is simply considered a "correction" and they occur relatively frequently in all markets.

Audrey
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